Downstream Upstream Relationship and The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance ...
[Pages:29]Water and Environment Consulting LLC
Downstream Upstream Relationship
and The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam (GERD) Filling and Operation
Agreement Flexibility
Wossenu Abtew, Ph.D., P.E., DWRE, Principal Civil Engineer, Water and
Environment Consulting LLC, wabtew@
Nile Talk Forum Global Webinar Series
FIU January 28, 2021
Outline of Talk
? Global Freshwater Impending Shortage and the Nile Basin ? GERD Negotiations ? Washington DC Proposal ? Dam Operation Flexibility and Climate Prediction ? The Future of GERD Negotiations
Water and Environment Consulting
Eastern Nile Population Growth, Water Value and Water Conflict
The Price of Nile water has increased inviting and global freshwater deficit is projected (40% deficit by 2030) 1. Out of basin water transfer/sale (direct or indirect) 2. Political and economic bartering of water and internationalizing Nile water conflict 3. It is drawing speculators attention as now water is a commodity - ((NQH2O) on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index) 4. Domestic political value of water keeps on increasing 5. Land and water grab are part of water trading ? Sudan with the highest potential 6. The Nile flow will decrease due to upstream abstraction
Eastern Nile Countries
Nile Countries
Abtew, W, Dessu S. 2018. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River. Springer ()
Water Has Become a Market Commodity and Worth Fighting for Upstream view it as issue of Water Sharing but downstream and International
Capital view it as $
1 to 27cents for a cubic meter of Nile water From 1970 to 2020
Water and Environment Consulting
GERD Filling and Operation Plan Negotiations
? Who sets the agenda?
Water and Environment Consulting
The Washington D.C. GERD Negotiation (Nov 2019 ? Feb 2020) A Lesson in Water Negotiations
? Guaranteed flow, dam filling and dam operation plan ? Annex A, B, C, D ? Reference ? Egypt's 19 June 2020 Letter to UNSC
()
Water and Environment Consulting
Nile Basin Countries ? Hydrologic Status
Country
Burundi DRCoeepnmugoobclricatoicf Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda
Relative Location in Basin Upstream
Percentage of Country Area in Nile Basin (FAO 2000)
46
Upstream
1
Downstream
33
Upstream
21
Upstream
32
Upstream
9
Upstream
83
Upstream/Downstream
Upstream/Downstream
78
Upstream
13
Upstream
98
Water and Environment Consulting
Eastern Nile Countries Transboundary River Relationship
Ethiopia Sudan Egypt
Ethiopia Sudan
Sudan Egypt
Water and Environment Consulting
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