Official Farmers Hurmanac 2006-2007 Winter Forecast



| | | | | | |

|December 2006 |January 2007 |February 2007 |March 2007 |Winter Forecasts of Notable Meteorologists |Impact for ASD |

|Cooler half of the month |This January will be nothing like |Starts off the way the end of |Potential for historic | | |

|will be from December 1st |January of 2006 which was extremely |January ended, favoring warmer |winter storm in March. If|Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz (NBC 10): |Winter Snowfall (in) |

|through 15th. |warm relative to normal. |and less snowy weather. |this does come to | |Probability (%) |

| | |Coldest and snowiest time frame|fruition, I expect this to|Normal to Warm Dec; Cold Jan; Even Colder Feb; | |

|Our first accumulation of |Expect a cold month to ring in the New |is from about mid month |be a changeover event for |Warm Mar; Overall Winter Colder Than Normal; |0 – 7 |

|snow for the winter will |Year with multiple threats of winter |forward. |the immediate Philadelphia|Much Above Normal Snowfall (30 to 40 inches); 1|5 |

|come during the 1st to |storms. | |region but a huge |or more storms of 10 inches or more; 16 days in| |

|15th time frame. | |Feb Temp: -0.8 degrees |snowmaker to our SW, W, |which it snows. |7 – 12 |

| |Our best chance for an ice storm this | |NW. | |5 |

|Weather pattern is less |winter is during the month of January. |Feb Snow: 5.8 in | |Rob Guarino (FOX 29): | |

|favorable for cold and | | |Mar Temp: + 2.3 degrees | |12 – 19 * |

|snow during the 2nd half |Weather pattern favors warmer and less |Projected Winter Storm Dates | |Warm Dec; Normal Jan; Cold Feb; Warm Mar; |20 |

|of the month compared to |snowy weather at the end of the month. |(HM): |Mar Snow: 2.2 in |Overall Winter Warmer Than Normal; Near Normal | |

|the 1st half of the month.| | | |Snowfall (17-23 inches). 80% of the Winter |19 – 26 |

| |Jan Temp: -1.3 degrees |2-17: Potential Significant |Projected Winter Storm |Snowfall Will Occur in Jan and Feb. |25 |

|Dec Temp: + 0.3 degrees | |“Snowstorm” |Dates (HM): | | |

| |Jan Snow: 10.3 in | | |Kathy Orr (CBS 3): |26 – 35 * |

|Dec Snow: 2.7 in | |2-23: Potential Significant |3-3: Potential Significant| |20 |

| |Projected Winter Storm Dates (HM): |“Snowstorm” |“Snowstorm” |Warm Dec; Normal Jan; Cold Feb; Overall Winter | |

|Projected Winter Storm | | | |Near Normal; |35 – 50 * |

|Dates (HM): |1-7: Potential Significant “Snowstorm” |2-28: Potential Significant |3-8: Potential Significant|Above Normal Snowfall (20 – 26 inches). |15 |

| | |“Snowstorm” |“Snowstorm” | | |

|12-5: Potential “Winter |1-15: Potential Significant “Snowstorm”| | |Action News (Accu-Weather): |50 + |

|Storm” | | |3-18: Potential | |10 |

| |1-23: Potential “Winter Storm.” Could | |Significant “Snowstorm” |Normal Dec; Cold Jan; Cold Feb; Overall Winter | |

|12-8: Potential “Winter |be a HUGE event that impacts many along| | |Colder Than Normal; Above Normal Snowfall | |

|Storm” |the Eastern seaboard. Most likely a | | |(About 25 inches). |Snow Days in ASD |

| |“changeover” storm for Philadelphia. | | | |Probability (%) |

|12-23: Potential “Winter | | | | | |

|Storm” | | | | |0 |

| | | | | |10 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |1-2 |

| | | | | |50 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |3-4 |

| | | | | |25 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |5-6 |

| | | | | |10 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |6+ |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |Late Arrivals |

| | | | | |Probability (%) |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |0 |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |1 |

| | | | | |10 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |2 |

| | | | | |30 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |3 |

| | | | | |25 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |4 |

| | | | | |15 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | |10 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |6+ |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |Early Dismissals |

| | | | | |Probability (%) |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |0 |

| | | | | |25 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |1 |

| | | | | |30 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |2 |

| | | | | |20 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |3 |

| | | | | |10 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |4 |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | |6+ |

| | | | | |5 |

| | | | | | |

Overall Winter Comments

-2006-2007 climate pattern is one of a normal October, warm November and a “moderate” El Nino winter:

Past Winter Patterns Similar to 2006-2007:

1902-03…..snow - 16.8”

1930-31…..snow - 4.1”

1963-64…..snow - 30.9”

1982-83…..snow - 35.9”

1994-95…..snow - 9.8”

2004-05…..snow - 30.4”

Average = 21.3” (more than normal)

-Many winter storm threats resulting in “media frenzy.” Lots of hype for good reason but many will think the hype is out of control and annoying after a while.

-When the winter is all said and done, there will be drastic differences in total winter snowfall within the Delaware Valley. Some areas within the Delaware Valley will receive below normal winter snowfall, whereas others will receive above normal snowfall. Additionally, there will be extreme variation in total snow accumulation for a singular storm(s). For example, two places, perhaps as little as 25 miles apart, may have final storm totals of 3 inches and 12 inches respectively.

-For us in and around Philadelphia, the majority (> 50%) of winter storms will be “changeover” storms or just pure rainstorms. All of the above points will make forecasting very difficult during the winter. After the winter season, Congress will introduce a bill titled. “No Meteorologist Left Behind.” Hey Hartman, is it Congress that introduces bills?

-I am really torn on whether to predict a winter with below normal snowfall or a winter with snowfall that is much above normal. “Hurricane” Schwartz went with a blockbuster cold and snowy winter with a total snowfall of 30 to 40 inches. He is one of the top snow forecasters in the country. He tends to be a conservative forecaster so he is rather confident of a blockbuster winter. He also went on to say that there will be 1 or more 10 inch storms this winter. Those happen about once every 3 to 4 years on average. So he is rather confident about this as well. Rob Guarino of our FOX affiliate is also a notable and respected snow forecaster. He has a very respectable accuracy rate similar to that of “Hurricane” Schwartz. He is predicting a warmer than normal winter with near normal snowfall around 20 inches.

-This could be a winter in which we receive 40 or more inches of snow resulting from 1 or more really big storms. El Nino winters which are rare to begin with have produced 24% of our all of our 6 inch or more storms. The strength of this winters’ El Nino is the key factor. Weak and/or moderate El Nino’s favors cold and snow. Strong El Nino’s strongly favor warm winters with little snow. But as seen in the table above, even weak and/or moderate El Nino winters can have little snowfall.

-I think “all snow” events will be very hard to come by keeping the accumulations lower to our south and east. However, further north and west where it remains colder accumulations could really pile up. Therefore I think the airport will receive 21.0 inches but Willow Grove Naval Base will receive upwards of 29.1 inches. Thus I am banking on changeovers to ice and/or rain being the reason why we aren’t the ones with a blockbuster winter snowfall. The Achilles of my forecast is my snowfall prediction for February. If this 5.8 inch total falls flat on its face and instead we get 1 or 2 significant snowstorms with little or no changeover then our winter could easily end up over 40 inches. This is the winter where it all depends on where you live.

Overall Winter Temperatures: +0.5 degrees (above normal) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

Overall Winter Snowfall: 21.0 inches (Philadelphia International Airport) CONFIDENCE IS LOW

Overall Winter Snowfall: 29.1 inches (Willow Grove Naval Base) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE

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