National Weather Service March 2022 May 2022

National Weather Service

Central Region Climate Outlook

Oct 2024 ? December 2024

Saturday, September 21, 2024 10:41 PM

Important Messages:

October Forecasts are Challenging!

In general, October shows the least skill of any month. The forecast for this October and OND leaned towards dynamical guidance and typical La Ni?a Patterns.

An expansion of equal chances (EC) for temperatures was made for Oct as some of the dynamic models showed a slight cooling signal across portions of CR.

Overall, there was significant uncertainty and low confidence for this forecast period.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

October 2024

Temperature &

Precipitation Outlooks

Numerical and dynamic models were mixed for temperatures across CR, with the ECMWF showing a weak/cool signal for the first half of Oct. This resulted in the expansion of equal chances for above-near-or below normal temperatures across CR with the far eastern and western portions of the region continuing to lean above normal. For precipitation, the models were fairly consistent with La Ni?a like impacts - leaning drier for nearly the entire southern half of CR this October, especially for the later half of the month.

One Month Temperature Outlook One Month Precipitation Outlook Three Month Temperature Outlook

Oct-Nov-Dec 2024 Temperature &

Precipitation Outlooks

Drought continuation or expansion is likely for portions of the southern, central and western parts of the Region as forecasts lean towards drier than normal conditions this October and for the OND season.

Heading into OND, some drought improvements are likely across the Great Lakes region.

The overall pattern heading into this OND looks rather La Ni?a?ish. Combining ENSO with some model input, the area leaning towards above average temperatures was

shifted slightly south - though Three Month Precipitation Outlook

much of the southern portions of CR continue to lean warmer than normal. Above normal precip is favored for OND across the Great Lakes Region with below normal precipitation favored across parts of the Plains. This precipitation signal is typical for La Ni?a.

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National Weather Service Oct 2024 ? December 2024

Central Region Climate Outlook

Saturday, September 21, 2024 10:41 PM

Drier than normal conditions favored across

IRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO

parts of CR may bring increased Wild Fire activity

Forecast/Plumes

With forecasts favoring drier than normal conditions across the southern portions of Central Region this October, combined with ongoing drought conditions across the Plains into the Ozarks and east towards the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, it's

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see:

Useful Links/Info:

News from Latest ENSO Blog from Sea Surface Temperatures from the Climate Prediction Center Latest ENSO Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center Drought Information from the US Drought Monitor Interactive GIS Mapping from NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) ? Account registration required

? The ENSO forecast continues to signal La Ni?a conditions for the fall and through the coming winter months. It was noted that during rapid transitions, ENSO signals can lag compared to guidance ? possibly explaining the slower than originally expected transition to La Ni?a.

? A weak La Ni?a is the most likely scenario based on model plume guidance (above).

Other Teleconnection Info

? The MJO was noted as having a dry signal from 120 to 60W and was mainly expected to move into the western Pacific (Phase 8/1). There are some signals that the MJO may shift towards a weak Phase 5/6 in late October, but this shift is not expected to have much of an impact on the forecast.

? The background impacts from ENSO and a negative PDO are expected to drive the forecast through the OND period.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

For more info, contact: shawn.rossi@

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