TRAVEL BAROMETER, Fall 2015 - Visit NH

TRAVEL BAROMETER, Fall 2015

Overall Performance

The indicators used in the "travel barometer" for New Hampshire show that Fall 2015 was a positive period for the State's travel sector when compared with Fall 2014. More travelers visited the state, and they spent more compared to Fall 2014. Business travels were up. The share of overnight travelers fell.

Estimated Visitor Counts and Spending (in millions) Visitor counts and spending are estimated by the INHS, and are indicative of the health of all tourism industries in the state collectively, which include not only lodging and restaurants, but also arts, entertainment, and recreation.

Indicator

Visitor Trips Visitor Days Visitor Spending Visitor Spending per Day Retail Spending

Value

9.03 14.99 $1,342

$90

% from prior year

10.6% 11.6% 10.4% -1.1%

$406

8.4%

Indicator

R&M Restaurants Rooms Combination Other Food Service R&M_T CPI

Sales

$814.9 $505.8 $132.6

$35.1 $141.3

% from prior year

7.0% 6.6% 5.4% 29.9% 5.4%

$545.7 238

10.3% 0.2%

Rooms and Meals Sales (in millions) Rooms and meals sales are the baseline measurement of the tourism sector, which provides the basis of other tourism indicators such as traveler counts and spending. It's the official count of sales as reported by the NHDRA. Nearly all of lodging (Rooms) and meals at hotels and resorts (Combination) are paid by travelers, while only about half of the restaurant meals are estimated to be paid by travelers.

Employment in Tourism Sector (in thousands) The number of employed residents in the state is from the Household survey, and is indicative of the health of the state's overall economy. The numbers of jobs in tourism industries are from the Establishment Survey, and collectively indicate the health of the tourism sector. It is the only tourism indicator that is publicly available and comparable across different states in the country.

Indicator

Employed Residents Jobs in Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Jobs in Accommodations Jobs in A, E, R and A (sum of the two above) Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality

Level

713 10.8

% from prior year

0.4%

3.2%

9.8

10.1%

20.6

6.4%

66.6

1.3%

Indicator Vehicle Rentals Airline Passengers Hotel Occupancy

Value

$24.6 274,279

64.4%

% from prior year

8.0% 2.3% -0.2%

Business Travelers

The volume of business travelers may be

reflected in such variables as vehicle rentals, airline passengers, and hotel occupancy rate.

Entertainment and Amenities

The tourism sector also includes arts, entertainment, and recreation industries. Fishing and hunting licenses sales and snowmobile registrations include only those sold to out-of-state residents.

Indicator Attractions Attendance Fishing and Hunting Licenses

% from

Value prior year

201,418

5.4%

17,086

4.3%

Indicator

US 3 Groveton US 2 Jefferson US 302 Bartlett I-93 Lincoln NH 12 Claremont I-89 Sutton NH 16 Ossipee NH 11 Alton NH 101 Temple NH 9 Chesterfield I-93 S Concord NH 101 Exeter Total Traffic Counts

Vehicle Counts

3,049 5,046 4,125 11,370 9,062 19,962 12,752 5,917 8,096 12,160 72,421 40,025 203,986

% from prior year

7.2% 10.5% 11.7%

9.2% 5.5% 4.5% 6.4% 6.7% -0.5% 1.3% 3.7% 7.7% 5.2%

Traffic Counts

The vehicle traffic counts should be reflective of changes in the volume of traveler counts. The vehicle counts are collected on Saturdays, in order to reduce the volume of commuter traffic in the data. Furthermore, 12 recorders are selected nearby major travel destinations to reflect traveler traffic in each of the seven travel regions in the State.

Great North Woods: Groveton, Jefferson White Mountain: Lincoln, Bartlett

Lakes: Ossipee, Alton Dartmouth Lakes Sunapee: Sutton, Claremont Monadnock: Temple, Chesterfield Merrimack Valley: Concord Seacoast: Exeter

Weather

Tourism is one sector whose fortune is left at the mercy of the mother nature. Snow brings business during winter, while rain does the opposite during summer.

Indicator

% from Days prior year

Days with Precipitation 23

-25.8%

Comparison with New England and U.S.

The number of jobs estimates in the leisure and hospitality sector from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is the only tourism indicator that is comparable across states in the country. Therefore, it provides a glance of the performance of the state's tourism sector relative to other states in New England and the rest of the country.

Indicator

New Hampshire Connecticut Massachusetts Maine Rhode Island Vermont New England United States

Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality

158.0 356.3

64.0 58.7 34.8 738.4 15,251 158.0

% from prior year

3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 5.3% 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.7%

Leading Indicators

The historical data show that the Massachusetts (MA) Leading Index, published by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, has been a good predictor of the New Hampshire's tourism industry. The chart below illustrates that the MA Leading Index started declining before the beginning of every recession since the late 1980s, and began to rise prior to the end of each recession.

The state of Massachusetts economy is critical for the New Hampshire's tourism industry, since the largest share of visitors to New Hampshire come from Massachusetts. Therefore, the Massachusetts Leading Index may also shed light on the future performance of the New Hampshire's tourism industry. A New Hampshire tourism recession was defined as a period of declines in the year-over-year growth of real spending at lodgings. The detailed definition of the MA Leading Index is provided at the end of this report.

NH Toursim and MA Economy

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5

NH Tourism Recession

MA Leading Index

Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Indicator

Gas Price DTTD Guidebook Requests Total Sessions Canadian Dollar British Pound Interest Rate Spread

Value

$2.27 5,851

% from prior year

-31.1%

-31.9%

334,058

5.1%

$0.757 $1.529

1691

-15.3% -4.7% 4.5%

Other indicators that may be useful in predicting directional changes in the state's tourism industry

Increases in the potential leading indicators on the left may be indicative of more businesses for the tourism sector in the near future, while decreases may mean the opposite. An exception is the gas price. A substantial increase in gas prices may discourage traveling.

ROOMS AND MEALS SALES, Fall 2015

State

% of Sales State

$815 100%

% change from prior year by county

County Belknap Carroll Cheshire Coos Grafton Hillsborough Merrimack Rockingham Strafford Sullivan

$44 5% $61 7% $34 4% $23 3% $92 11% $213 26% $73 9% $220 27% $46 6%

$8 1%

Region

Great North

$8 1%

Woods

White Mountain

$124 15%

Lakes Region

$85 10%

Dartmouth-L.S.

$39 5%

Monadnock

$58 7%

Merrimack

$314 39%

Valley

Seacoast

$188 23%

Sales are in millions of dollars.

It does not include vehicle rentals.

Sullivan Strafford Rockingham Merrimack Hillsborough Grafton

Coos Cheshire

Carroll Belknap

-0.2%

5.8% 5.1%

9.1% 6.3%

10.3% 10.7% 4.8% 8.8% 10.8%

% change from prior year by Region

White Mountain Seacoast

Monadnock Merrimack Valley

Lakes Region Great North Woods

Dartmouth-L.S.

9.7% 5.2% 5.4%

6.6% 9.6% 10.7%

7.6%

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