1 U



INDIAN RUPEE: FORCASTING

Dan Effron, Chris Holton, Lauren Duff, Ashley Polselli

|1 USD = 45.0500 Indian Rupee    |

|1 Indian Rupee = 0.0222 USD |

As of: 04/22/2006 04:31 GMT

1. Short term (1 week into the future) using technical analysis

- Using historical prices to predict future prices from March 13, 2006 through April 21, 2006 the India Rupee has weakened against the US dollar. Looking at the Bollinger Band technical analysis the same weakening is evident. We are forecasting the India Rupee will continue to weaken against the US dollar in the next week.

 Indian Rupees to 1 USD 

[pic]

|30 days |latest (Apr 21) |lowest (Mar 15) |highest (Apr 12) |

| |45.05 |44.11 |45.09 |

Bollinger Band Technical Analysis (Inverted)

[pic]

1. Short term (3 months into the future)

a. Asset Choice Interest Rate differential model

India

- March 2006: 6.5% repo rate (overnight lending rate to banks)

- April 2006: raised repo rate to 6.75%

U.S.

- March 2006: 5.5% Fed funds rate

- April 2006: 5.75% Fed funds rate

- A higher short term interest rates should attract foreign capital inflows and result in strengthening over long periods of time.

- With an increase in the short term rate India will experience an increase in short term capital and the spot rate for the Indian rupee will strengthen in the next 3 months.

b. Balance of Payments model

- Current account balance: $-13.19 billion

- Exports: $76.23 billion

- Imports: $113.1 billion

- India is spending more on goods and services then they are taking in therefore they are a high deficit country.

- High deficient for India puts downward pressure on its exchange rate, the Indian rupee is overvalued.

2. Long term (5 years into the future) using relative purchasing power parity model

|Market Basket |Price in |Price in |Absolute PPP (European Terms) |

| |U.S. Dollars ($) |Indian Rupees | |

|HP Pavilion Laptop |$679.99 |Rs. 64,990 |64,990/$679.99= Rs. 95.57 |

|Nano Ipod |$149.00 |Rs. 8,000 |8,000/$149= |

| | | |Rs. 53.69 |

|Phillips DVD Player |$79.99 |Rs. 4,999 |4,999/$79.99= |

| | | |Rs. 62.49 |

|Honda Accord |$19,575.00 |Rs. 1,575,000 |1,575,000/$19,575= Rs. 80.46 |

|Marriott Room (1 std. night) |$325.00 |Rs. 21,398 |21,398/$325= |

| | | |Rs. 65.84 |

- Absolute PPP with 20% weight for each item

= 95.57+53.69+62.49+80.46+65.84 = Rs. 71.61

5

- Rate on April 10, 2006 = 45.0500 Indian Rupee   

- PPP > Current Spot → Indian Rupee is overvalued.

- (71.61-45.05) / 45.05 = about 59%

- The Rupee is overvalued by about 59%.

3. Long term (5 years into the future) using the International Fisher Effect

Spot rate for Indian Rupee: 45.05 INR

5 year bond rate India: 7.55%

5 year bond rate U.S.: 5.56%

Rupee Sort Rate= Current Spot rate*(1+inthome)^5/(1+intforeign) ^5

= 45.05 * (1+7.55%)^5/(1+5.56%)^5

Future spot rate = 49.37

The spot rate now is 45.05 rupees and the future spot rate according to the International Fisher Effect is 49.37 rupees. The rupee will weaken and is overvalued according to this long term method.

Sources:









................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download