DOW JONES HISTORICAL TRENDS
Value of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
DOW JONES HISTORICAL TRENDS
History shows that the market typically moves in cycles. In the past 114 years, there have been four bull markets (shown in green) and four bear markets (shown in red). Investment strategies that work in bull markets may not be effective in flat or bear markets.
148.92% Cumulative
Return
9 yrs.
294.66% Cumulative
Return
-4.29% Cumulative
Return
5 yrs.
18 yrs.
1.69% Cumulative
Return
25 yrs.
154.29% Cumulative
Return
11 yrs.
0.83% Cumulative
Return
17 yrs.
1003.19% Cumulative
Return
18 yrs.
5.82% Cumulative
Return
11 yrs.
13,930.01
11,577.51 10,000
1,000
100
40.45
10
9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8 4 0 4 2 4 4 4 6 4 8 5 0 5 2 5 4 5 6 5 8 5 0 6 2 6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 06 08 09 10 Logarithmic graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 12/1896 through 12/2010. Source: Graph created by Rydex|SGI using data from 01/2011. Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Returns do not reflect any dividends, management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Contact your financial advisor to discuss this concept further. For more information call 800.820.0888 or your financial advisor.
DOW JONES HISTORICAL TRENDS
Over the last 114 years, the stock market has rewarded investors with long-term growth. But for most investors, a realistic time horizon is 10 to 20 years--not more than a century.
History shows that the equity market enters long periods of high returns, followed by lengthy periods of lower ones. These periods are called secular trends. There are two kinds of secular trends:
A secular bull market, or upward-trending market, occurs when each successive high point is higher than the previous one.
Start 12/1896 7/1924 12/1954 11/1982
End 1/1906 8/1929 1/1966 1/2000
Months 110 63 135 206
Years 9 5 11 17
Annualized Return 10.56% 30.44% 8.72% 15.09%
Cumulative Return 148.92% 294.66% 154.29% 1003.19%
Annualized Std. Dev. 20.45% 17.30% 11.68% 15.12%
A secular bear market, or downward-trending market, occurs when a trend does not rise above the previous high.
Start 2/1906 9/1929 2/1966 2/2000
End 6/1924 11/1954 10/1982 12/2010
Months 218 304 202 132
Years 18 25 17 11
Annualized Return -0.24% 0.07% 0.05% 0.52%
Cumulative Return -4.29% 1.69% 0.83% 5.82%
Annualized Std. Dev. 18.71% 24.96% 15.25% 15.74%
Having a thorough understanding of these trends and the current market environment may help you better prepare for upcoming financial goals. Contact your financial advisor to discuss this concept further.
To see an interactive view of the Dow Jones Historical Trends chart, visit Rydex|SGI's alternative investment educational site at .
Investing in alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involves special risks such as risk associated with short sales, leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potential illiquidity. Investing in alternative strategies presents the opportunity for significant losses. There is no assurance that the investment objective will be attained.
Source: Calculated by Rydex|SGI using data from and Bloomberg, 2011.
Performance displayed represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. This information is for illustrative purpose only and should not be construed as a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. Due to market fluctuations, current returns may be higher or lower than listed returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. Returns do not reflect dividends, management fees, transaction costs or expenses. There is no guarantee that prior markets will be duplicated. Materials prepared by Rydex|SGI.
Securities are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Services offered by Rydex Distributors, LLC (RDL). Security Investors, LLC (SI) is a registered investment advisor, and does business as Security Global InvestorsSM and Rydex Investments. SI and RDL are affiliates and are subsidiaries of Security Benefit Corporation, which is wholly owned by Guggenheim SBC Holdings, LLC, a special purpose entity managed by an affiliate of Guggenheim Partners, LLC, a diversified financial services firm with more than $100 billion in assets under supervision.
DJCSI-15-0111 x1211 #2157
Some strategies to consider during various secular cycles include:
Secular Bull Market ? Relative Returns1 ? Wealth Accumulation ? Correlating Assets2 ? Buy and Hold
Secular Bear Market ? Real Returns1 ? Wealth Preservation ? Noncorrelating Assets2 ? Dynamic/Alternative Approach3
1 Real returns are what you actually make. Hypothetically, if your portfolio returned 12% last year, this should be your real return. Relative returns are returns compared to a benchmark. For example, if an index made 28% last year, compared to your portfolio which made 12%, your portfolio underperformed relative to the benchmark S&P 500?.
2 Correlation is a statistical measure of how two variables move in relation to each other. This measure ranges from -1 to +1 where -1 indicates perfect negative correlation and +1 indicates perfect positive correlation.
3 A dynamic/alternative approach is one that incorporates specialized investments in conjunction with a core strategy to potentially take advantage of changing market conditions. Specialized investment strategies may help you achieve greater diversification, lower volatility and potentially better returns. There are various risks associated with these types of investments, so you should educate yourself thoroughly with the help of your advisor to gain a better understanding.
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