S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield - Yardeni Research
S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
February 14, 2023
Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
3-13
February 14, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 1.
15
S&P 500 DIVIDEND YIELD vs CPI INFLATION RATE & STOCK MARKET CYCLE
10
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
Nominal* (1.74)
Real** (-5.37)
5
0
15
10
5 Q4
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* S&P 500 four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by quarterly closing value of the S&P 500 index. ** Nominal dividend yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.
25
25
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* vs CPI INFLATION RATE**
20
20
15
S&P 500 Earnings Yield*
15
Nominal (4.47)
Real** (-3.86)
10
10
5
Q3
5
0
0
Q3
-5
-5
-10
-10
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value. ** Nominal earnings yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
FN3 Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 3 / February 14, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 3.
12
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
9
12 Latest (-3.86)
9
6
6
3
3
Average 3.19
0
0
-3
-3
Q3
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value. ** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each quarter.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 4.
18
US EQUITIES REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
16
18 Latest (-2.68)
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
Average = 4.9
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Q3
-4
-4
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* Ratio of after-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS divided by market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues. ** Year-over-year percent change in quarterly using three-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / February 14, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 5.
20
20
REAL EARNINGS YIELDS
18
18
16
16
14
Real Earnings Yields
14
All Equities
12
Less Foreign** (-2.7)
12
10
S&P 500* (-3.9)
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Q3
-4
Q3
-4
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* After-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS as a percent of market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). ** S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Standard & Poor's, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6.
20
20
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD*
(as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index, annual rate, nsa)
15
15
10
10
5
5
Q3
0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's.
0
20 25 30
Page 5 / February 14, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.
Related download
- fed s stock valuation model monthly weekly yardeni research
- us treasury bond yield commodity prices yardeni research
- s p 500 dividend earnings yield yardeni research
- ishares 5 10 year investment grade corporate bond etf
- safe area national solidarity bond 4 year and 10 year
- ishares 10 20 year treasury bond etf
- asx 3 and 10 year treasury bonds futures and options
- the volcker rule 13 considerations for calculating and deloitte
- nipa vs s p 500 dividends
- s p 500 index vs us 10 year treasury yield nottingham advisors