Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Office of Debt Management

Fiscal Year 2014 Q3 Report

Table of Contents

I. Fiscal

A. Quarterly Tax Receipts B. Monthly Receipt Levels C. Eleven Largest Outlays D. Treasury Net Nonmarketable Borrowing E. Cumulative Budget Deficits F. Deficit and Borrowing Estimates G. Budget Surplus/Deficit

p. 4 p. 5 p. 6 p. 7 p. 8 p. 9 p. 10

II. Financing

A. Sources of Financing B. OMB's Projections of Net Borrowing from the Public C. Interest Rate Assumptions D. Net Marketable Borrowing on "Auto Pilot" Versus Deficit Forecasts

p. 13 p. 15 p. 16 p. 17

III. Portfolio Metrics

A. Weighted Average Maturity of Marketable Debt Outstanding with Projections B. Projected Gross Borrowing C. Recent and Projected Maturity Profile

p. 22 p. 23 p. 24

IV. Demand

A. Summary Statistics B. Bid-to-Cover Ratios C. Investor Class Awards at Auction D. Primary Dealer Awards at Auction E. Direct Bidder Awards at Auction F. Foreign Awards at Auction

p. 29

p. 30

p. 35

p. 39

p. 40

p. 41

3

Section I: Fiscal

4

5

Source: United States Department of the Treasury

Withheld Taxes (incl FICA)

Non-Withheld Taxes (incl SECA)

Corporate Taxes

Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14

Quarterly Tax Receipts

75% 50% 25%

0% -25% -50%

Year over Year % Change

Monthly Receipt Levels

(12-Month Moving Average)

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

$ bn Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14

Individual Income Taxes

Corporation Income Taxes

Social Insurance Taxes

Other

Individual Income Taxes include withheld and non-withheld. Social Insurance Taxes include FICA, SECA, RRTA, UTF deposits, FUTA and

RUIA. Other includes excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs duties and miscellaneous receipts.

6

Source: United States Department of the Treasury

$ bn HHS SSA Defense Treasury Agriculture Labor

VA Transportation

OPM Education Other Defense Civil

Eleven Largest Outlays

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

0

Oct - Jun FY 2013 Oct - Jun FY 2014

Source: United States Department of the Treasury

7

Treasury Net Nonmarketable Borrowing

25 15

5 (5) (15) (25) (35)

Source: United States Department of the Treasury

Foreign Series

Fiscal Quarter State and Local Govt. Series (SLGS)

$ bn

Q3-04 Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14

Savings Bonds

8

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