S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield - Yardeni Research
S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 12, 2023
Dr. Ed Yardeni
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Joe Abbott
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
3-13
October 12, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 1.
15
S&P 500 DIVIDEND YIELD vs CPI INFLATION RATE & STOCK MARKET CYCLE
10
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
Nominal* (1.62)
Real** (-2.51)
5
0
15
10
5 Q3
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* S&P 500 four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by quarterly closing value of the S&P 500 index. ** Nominal dividend yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.
25
25
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* vs CPI INFLATION RATE**
20
20
15
S&P 500 Earnings Yield*
15
Nominal (4.62)
Real** (0.65)
10
10
5
Q2
5
0
Q2
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value. ** Nominal earnings yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
FN3 Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 3 / October 12, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 3.
12
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
9
12 Latest (0.65)
9
6
6
3 Average 3.19
0
3
Q2 0
-3
-3
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value. ** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each quarter.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 4.
18
US EQUITIES REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
16
18 Latest (0.72)
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
Average = 4.9
6
4
4
2
2
Q2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* Ratio of after-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS divided by market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues. ** Year-over-year percent change in quarterly using three-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / October 12, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 5.
20
20
REAL EARNINGS YIELDS
18
18
16
16
14
Real Earnings Yields
14
All Equities
12
Less Foreign** (0.7)
12
10
S&P 500* (0.6)
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
Q2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* After-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS as a percent of market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). ** S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Standard & Poor's, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6.
20
20
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD*
(as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index, annual rate, nsa)
15
15
10
10
5
Q2
5
0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's.
0
20 25 30
Page 5 / October 12, 2023 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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