S&P 500 Earnings Yield - Yardeni Research
S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 24, 2021
Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
3-11
November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 1.
15
S&P 500 DIVIDEND YIELD vs CPI INFLATION RATE & STOCK MARKET CYCLE
10
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
Nominal* (1.38)
Real** (-3.91)
5
0
15
10
5 Q3
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* S&P 500 four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by quarterly closing value of the S&P 500 index. ** Nominal dividend yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2.
25
25
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* vs CPI INFLATION RATE**
20
20
15
S&P 500 Earnings Yield*
15
Nominal (4.50)
Real** (-0.84)
10
10
5
Q3 5
0
0
Q3
-5
-5
-10 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 deleted because of negative value. ** Nominal earnings yield minus CPI inflation rate on y/y basis using quarterly data based on 3-month averages.
FN3 Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-10
15 20 25
Page 3 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 3.
12
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
9
12 Latest (-0.84)
9
6
6
3
3
Average 3.19
0
0
Q3
-3
-3
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value. ** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each quarter.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 4.
14 US EQUITIES REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
Latest (-0.63) 14
12
12
10
10
8
8
Average = 4.9
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Q2
-2
-2
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* Ratio of after-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS divided by market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues. ** Year-over-year percent change in quarterly using three-month averages.
Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 5.
20
20
REAL EARNINGS YIELDS
18
18
16
16
14
Real Earnings Yields
14
All Equities
12
Less Foreign** (-0.63)
12
S&P 500* (-0.84)
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
QQ23
-2
-2
-4
-4
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* After-tax corporate profits as reported to the IRS as a percent of market value of US equities traded in the US excluding foreign issues minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). ** S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index minus CPI inflation rate (y/y in quarterly using 3-ma). Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Standard & Poor's, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6.
20
20
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD*
(as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index, annual rate, nsa)
15
15
10
10
5
5
Q3
0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's.
0
15 20 25
Page 5 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 7.
1830
1530 S&P 500 INDEX DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (ratio scale)
1230 930
630
330
1830 Oct 1530
1230 930
630
330
30
30
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 8.
25
25
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD*
vs CPI INFLATION RATE**
20
20
15
S&P 500 Earnings Yield (4.50)
15
CPI Inflation Rate (5.34)
10
10
5
Q3 Q3
5
0
0
-5 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. ** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each quarter.
Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-5
15 20 25
Page 6 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 9.
12
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS CPI INFLATION RATE**
9
12 Latest (-0.84)
9
6
6
3
3
Average 3.19
0
0
Q3
-3
-3
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of large negative value. ** Year-over-year percent change in three-month average of each quarter.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 10.
20
20
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD*
vs US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD
15
15
S&P 500 Earnings Yield (4.50)
US Treasury 10-Year Yield (percent) (1.32)
10
10
5
5
Q3
0
52
57
62
67
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's and Federal Reserve Board.
0
17
22
27
Page 7 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield
Figure 11.
10
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS YIELD* MINUS US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD
5
0
10
5 Q3
0
-5
52
57
62
67
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
* S&P 500 reported earnings as a percent of quarterly average S&P 500 index. Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's and Federal Reserve Board.
-5
17
22
27
Figure 12.
310
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS / CONSUMER PRICE INDEX* 260 (dollars per share, annualized, ratio scale)
210
160
110
Q3 310 260 210 160
110
60
60
10
10
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
* S&P 500 reported earnings divided by consumer price index (three-month average of each quarter). Q4-2008 dropped because of negative value. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 8 / November 24, 2021 / S&P 500 Dividend & Earnings Yield
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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