Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Predicting the Markets: Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 16, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
Chief Investment Strategist
Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Predicting Bonds
1-27
March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 1.
18
18
US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD: 1965-1989
(percent, daily)
15.84
9/30/81
16
16
13.99
5/30/84
14
14
12
12
10.23 10/16/87
10
10
10.12
5/4/83
8
8
6
6
5.38
3/23/71 4
4
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 2.
18
18
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: 1965-1989
(yearly percent change, monthly)
16
14.8
16
3/80
14
12.3
14
12/74
12
12
10
10
8
6
2.7
6/72
4
8 2.5 7/83
4.8
6
3/84
1.1
12/86
4
2
2
0
0
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 1 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 3.
22
22
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE: 1965-1989
(percent, weekly)
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 4.
22
22
US BANK PRIME LOAN RATE: 1965-1989
(percent, weekly)
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 2 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 5.
12
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1965-1989 (percent, monthly)
11
12
10.8
12/82
11
10
10
9.0
5/75
9
9
8
8
7
6.1
5.6
8/71
5/79
6
4.6
10/73
5
3.4
4
5/69
7 5.0 6 3/89
5 4
3
3
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6.
9.5
9.5
REAL GDP: 1965-1989
9.0 (trillion 2012 dollars, saar, quarterly, ratio scale)
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 3 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 7.
18
US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH
16
14
12
10
US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yield (percent)
Nominal GDP (yearly percent change)
18
16
14
Q4
12
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
Feb
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 8.
12
12
SPREAD BETWEEN US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH*
10 (percentage points)
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
Q4
-10
-12
-12
-14
-14
-16
-16
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* US Treasury 10-year bond yield minus yearly percent change in nominal GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 9.
62
62
58
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE: 1980-2000
58
54
(dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale)
54
50
50
46
46
42
42
38
38
34
34
30
30
26
26
22
22
18
18
14
14
10
10
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 10.
2.5
2.5
HOUSING STARTS: 1980-2000
(million units, saar, monthly)
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
.9
.9
.7
.7
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 5 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Bonds
Figure 11.
11
11
US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD: 1987-2000
(percent, daily)
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
13000 12000
Figure 12.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE: 1987-2000 (daily)
13000 12000
11000
11000
10000
10000
9000
9000
8000
8000
7000
7000
6000
6000
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
1000
1987
1988
1989
Source: Dow Jones Inc.
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000
2000 1000
Page 6 / March 16, 2022 / Chapter 10 Charts: Predicting Bonds
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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