Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 12, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

US Government Bond Yield

1

US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield

2

US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread

3

US Municipal Yield & Spread

4

Bond Yield

5-7

December 12, 2022 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Government Bond Yield

Figure 1.

18

10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD

16

(percent, monthly)

18 Latest (3.89)

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

Nov

4

2

2



0

0

53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

6.0

10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD

5.5

(percent, daily)

5.0

6.0 Latest (3.61)

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

12/12 3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 1 / December 12, 2022 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield

Figure 3.

7.5

7.0

US INTEREST RATES (percent, daily)

6.5

6.0

30-Year Mortgage Rate (6.81) 10-Year Treasury Yield (3.61)

7.5

7.0 12/9

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

12/12 3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 4.

400

30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE MINUS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD (basis points, daily)

350

300 Spread (324)

250

400

350 12/9

300

250

200

200

150

150

100

100



50

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: The Wall Street Journal and Federal Reserve Board.

Page 2 / December 12, 2022 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread

Figure 5.

30

YIELD ON US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS (percent, daily)

30 Latest (8.30)

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

12/12

5

5



0

0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Figure 6.

2400

2400

YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND

2200

(basis points, daily)

2200

2000

Latest (469) 2000

1800

1800

1600

1600



1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

12/12

400

400

200

200

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

Page 3 / December 12, 2022 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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