Mr.parker.teaches.
Friday, July 27, 2012Updated: August 1, 5:55 PM ETA Hundred FactsBy Matthew If you see a kid selling lemonade on the side of the street, you stop and buy a glass. No matter what.Don't buy chocolate milk. Buy milk, buy chocolate mix, make the chocolate milk. How lazy are you? Mixing it is half the fun.It's thin crust over deep dish, and it's not even close.The best action movie of all time is "Die Hard."It's also the best Christmas movie ever.There is no movie sequel that is better than the original. With one exception. "Superman 2" is a better movie than the original Superman. Kneel before Zod, indeed. Feels like more fantasy teams should be named that.The best novel ever written is "The Princess Bride," by William Goldman. It's also my favorite movie.If you enter a public restroom and only one stall is taken, you choose the stall as far away as possible from that stall. You don't choose the one right next to that stall. Or attempt to talk to the person on the other side.The best live concert is done by Bruce Springsteen.The best overall concert experience is a Jimmy Buffett show.The best band you've never heard of is called Suburban Legends. It is a small band from Orange County that I absolutely love. And it's also third wave/ska, which by association makes me seem less of an old man despite my referencing two old men bands above.Everything you just read above is an opinion. Specifically, it is my opinion. I can't prove any of it -- it's just how I feel. And it's also the last opinion contained in this article.Every single thing you are about to read, from this point forward, is a fact. A cross-checked, heavily researched, undeniable, can't-argue-with-it, right-there-in-black-and-white, pure, unadulterated fact.Let's start with a quick game of "blind résumé." Here are two completely true player profiles. Which guy do you want this season?Player A: Over the past two years, of running backs with at least 300 carries, no one in the NFL has a higher yards-per-carry average than this player. He's explosive; over that same time frame, only three qualified players have a better big-play percentage than this guy. In a league with so many running backs by committee, he is the unquestioned lead back, averaging 19 touches a game last season. He's a touchdown machine, scoring in over half his games, and his 5.4 yards-per-carry last season was better than the averages of Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster, among many others. Since he came into the league, no running back has a better yards-per-catch average (10.3) and in that time frame. He is a top-10 back in terms of both receptions of more than 25 yards and receiving yards per game. Plus, he lost only one fumble all of last season. Adrian Peterson averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game in the games that he finished last season. Our guy: 16.6.Player B: He entered the league with a lot of hype, but is it justified? Last year, he didn't get the ball much at the goal line (eight carries inside an opponent's 10-yard line) or anywhere else on the field (24 percent of his team's rushing attempts). Even one of his big calling cards, his pass-catching ability, took a hit, as his receptions and yards per reception (19 catches for 154 yards, 8.1 average) hit career lows in 2011. He seems to have an aversion to the end zone, scoring just five touchdowns last season, and wasn't even a top-30 fantasy running back. After his team hired a new coach, the front office went out and traded for another rusher. Not exactly a vote of confidence.Which player do you want? You want Player A, right? And you're avoiding Player B, correct? I mean, it should be clear that when you go into your draft, you definitely want to target Player A, Darren McFadden.And make sure you don't get stuck with Player B ... who is also Darren McFadden.Yeah.Again, everything I wrote about McFadden in both instances is, in fact ... factual.They are also, by design, wildly misleading. Especially since the biggest issue about McFadden -- his health -- is not mentioned in either write-up; misinformation by omission, if you will.As you prepare for a pre-draft stat bombardment of red zone targets, yards after contact, attempted air yards against five or more rushers, new offensive schemes, rumors of this guy being in the best shape of his life while this other guy is in the doghouse, average draft position and blah-blah-blah, it's vital that you understand just one thing: Remember a few paragraphs ago when I said everything going forward would be a fact, and that the opinion about Suburban Legends was the last one I'd offer in this piece? I lied.Oh, this is still an article filled with facts. But the part no one tells you is ... facts are opinions. Or, at least, they are used as opinions.Because I'm not the only one who lied to you. Every single person who does any kind of analysis or is paid to give their opinion does it. The dude in the cube next to you presenting before the board next week? He does it. The teacher you trust to impart wisdom to your kids does it. Every fantasy analyst you read, every political pundit, every pop-culture commentator, everyone who's ever appeared on one of ESPN's many debate style shows, everyone.They present facts. But they only present some facts. The facts that support whatever OPINION they have. They mislead you. And they do it on purpose. They do it because they have to. It's impossible -- and I mean impossible -- to get a complete statistical overview of a player. Potential value changes with every game, play, personnel grouping and scheme. So to make sense of the chaos, we have to make choices as to which stats we believe are important. Choice is opinion, and that shapes the way the facts are presented. As long as we're doing nothing but the facts here, the truth of the matter is there's very little in this world I'm actually good at. But two things I am fantastic at? Researching statistics and then completely manipulating them to make a point.I study all the stats, do the research and talk to as many folks as I can, then I choose which stats I want to show/discuss/butcher. If my research shows I should like the guy, I tell you positive stats. If it's the other way, I highlight the negative.Everyone does it. And those who say they don't? They do it the most. Your job is to figure out who you trust and who you don't and then make your own call. Because that's all any of us are doing: taking small pieces of the big picture and making a call.Everything that follows is 100 percent accurate. Some are about football players, some are about teams and tendencies. And not one of them tells the whole story. ................
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