Age Structure Studies



Age Structure Studies

Introduction.

The population of the world is nearly 6 billion and is growing at an ever-increasing pace. Changes are taking place not only in the number of individuals but in the ages of the individuals who make up our population. Students will collect data from Internet sources to compare age distributions in their city, county or state with that of other places in the United States or of other countries. They will construct and interpret age-structure population pyramids and research reasons for the differences in these graphs among different countries.

Audience.

This lesson is designed for an introductory Biology course. It could also be adapted for use in a History, Social Studies, Government, Health or Mathematics class.

Previous Knowledge Needed.

Basic Internet skills. Basic graphing skills. Ability to compute percents.

Materials.

Internet access. "Age-Structure Population Pyramids" overhead. "Age-Structure Pyramids" Worksheet. Calculators may be used.

Objectives.

To access local and world population data on the Internet.

To learn how to read and construct age-structure population pyramids.

To describe characteristics of a population after examining the age-structure pyramid for a particular country.

To make and test some conjectures about countries with similar age-structure pyramids.

Procedure.

Introduce the idea of the changing age characteristics of the United States population by discussing the problem of funding social security into the 21st century. Ask students what they have heard about this problem and what is causing it.

Show the age-structure overhead on "The Aging in Michigan". Explain how to read this pyramid. Each horizontal bar represents a 5-year age span. Each vertical line represents 100,000 people. For example, in 1930 there were about 200,000 20-to-25 year old men and about 200,000 20-to-25 year old women. In 2030, it is projected that there will be about 350,000 men and 350,000 women in the 20-25 year old category.

The age-structure pyramid shows that the Michigan population has increased a great deal from 1900. (Students may estimate the total population in 1900 and 2020 by adding up the numbers in each age group. In 1900 a rough estimate is 2,400,000; in 2020 a rough estimate is 10,000,000.)

The shape of the pyramid is also very important. Discuss why it is easier to fund social security for a population pyramid with a shape as in 1900 or 1930 than a pyramid with the 2020 shape. (The 20-65 year olds must support those over 65. In 1930, there would be about 2,700,000 people supporting about 250,000; or 250000/2700000 = 0.0926 = 9.25% retired people would have to be supported. In 2020, approximately 1,750,000 retirees will need to be supported by 5,400,000 people; 1750000/5400000 = .324 = 32.4%.)

Ask students for suggestions why the shape of the pyramid has altered from 1900 to 2020. (Better medical services, nutrition, fewer children in families, better retirement benefits.)

The 1960 shape is also unusual. What historical circumstances could account for the large base and small "waist" in the 20-30 age group? (During World War II, 1940-45, fewer children were born because men were at war. Hence 20 years later, in 1960, there would be fewer 20-25 year olds. But after the war, 1950-1960, couples were able to start families creating the "baby boom".)

After students understand how age-structure pyramids are constructed, they can access population data on the Internet, create their own pyramid and complete the Age-Structure Worksheet. Age-Structure Pyramids created by the class may be shared either as a whole class or in small groups. Students should discuss similarities and differences among their pyramids for the different places they had chosen in order to complete #7 on the Worksheet.

Evaluation.

See points on the Age-Structure Worksheet.

Teacher Notes.

!!!! Warning !!!! The Web sites given in this lesson may have changed! Before using this lesson with your students, be sure to check if the sites are still working or if you must find another site. Sometimes the sites still have the relevant data but you may need to change the directions to access the data.

The STF1A option in the census site does not separate age data by gender. However, the STF3A option will give age data separated by gender and race. Hence if you need exact figures for age data with regard to gender, you can check all boxes P14A through P14 J and P15A and P15 B under the STF3A option. You will get 12 tables (for 6 different race categories and 2 different gender categories). You will need to add corresponding values in each race category to get total numbers for men and women.

In you are familiar with Microsoft Word and Excel, you could cut and paste these 12 tables into a Microsoft Word document. Then highlight just the numerical data by holding down the Alt key while highlighting the "column" that the numbers are in. You will also need to highlight some periods from this data. Cut and paste this column of numbers in another Word document. Then use Find under the Edit button on the top bar to find the periods and replace them with a space (choose Replace All). Next you can cut this new column of numbers into Excel and use Excel to total the appropriate cells.

If you wish, you could have students access the STF3A site and, instead of making an age-structure pyramid for the entire population, make age-structure pyramids for two or three different races, then compare the shapes of these pyramids.

If you need more background about the statistical concepts involved in the lesson, some good sites to check are:

In order to print out just a copy of the student worksheet, highlight this section, then copy and paste it into your word processor. You may then revise the worksheet if you wish.

Wisconsin’s Model Academic Standards Addressed

Science:

A12.3. Give examples that show how partial systems, models, and explanations are used to give quick and reasonable solutions that are accurate enough for basic needs.

A12.4. Construct arguments that show how conflicting models and explanations of events can start with similar evidence.

A12.5. Show how the ideas and themes of science can be used to make real-life decisions about careers, work places, life-styles, and use of resources.

B12.3. Relate the major themes of science to human progress in understanding science and the world.

C12.1. When studying science content, ask questions suggested by current social issues, scientific literature, and observations of phenomena; build hypotheses that might answer some of these questions; design possible investigations; and describe results that might emerge from such investigations.

C12.2. Identify issues from an area of science study, write questions that could be investigated, review previous research on these questions, and design and conduct responsible and safe investigations to help answer the questions.

C12.3. Evaluate data collected during an investigation, critique the data-collection procedures and results, and suggest ways to make any needed improvements.

C12.4. During investigations, choose the best data-collection procedures and materials available, use them competently and calculate the degree of precision of the resulting data.

G12.4. Show how a major scientific or technological change has had an impact on work, leisure, or the home.

H12.6. Evaluate data and sources of information when using scientific information to make decisions.

Mathematics:

D12.3. Determine measurements indirectly, using estimation, proportional reasoning, techniques of algebra, geometry and trigonometry, formulas, geometric relationships or conversion constants.

E12.1 Work with data in the context of real-world situations by formulating hypotheses that lead to collection and analysis of one- and two-variable data, using technology to generate displays, summary statistics and presentations.

E12.2. Organize and display data from statistical investigations using frequency distributions, percentiles, quartiles, deciles, line of best fit or matrices.

E12.3. Interpret and analyze information from organized and displayed data when given measures of dispersion, reliability or correlation.

Social Studies:

A12.1. Use various types of atlases and appropriate vocabulary to describe the physical attributes of a place or region, employing such concepts as climate, plate tectonics, volcanism, and landforms, and to describe the human attributes, employing such concepts as demographics, birth and death rates, doubling time, emigration, and immigration.

A12.2. Analyze information generated from a computer about a place, including statistical sources, aerial and satellite images, and three-dimensional models.

A12.4. Analyze the short-term and long-term effects that major changes in population in various parts of the world have had or might have on the environment.

B12.9. Select significant changes caused by technology, industrialization, urbanization, and population growth, and analyze the effects of these changes in the United States and the world.

E12.14. Use the research procedures and skills of the behavioral sciences (such as gathering, organizing, and interpreting data from several sources) to develop an informed position on an issue.

 

Activity Sheets.

 

The Aging in Michigan

Figure 2. Percent Distribution of Population by Age and Sex: Michigan, 1900-2020

|[pic] |[pic] |

|[pic] |[pic] |

|[pic] |[pic] |

| Age-Structure Pyramids Worksheet |Name ________________________ |

 1. (5 points) Access the site Type in a city, county, state or zip code to search for, then click Search. You may get a list of several areas with that name; decide which area is the one you are interested in. Under Lookup 1990 Census under that area, click on STF1A tables. Click P1 persons, P5 Sex and P11 Age. Click the HTML format, go to the top of the page, and then click Submit.

2. (5 points each). Since this data is not separated according to gender, estimate that about half of the population will be men and half women. What percent of your population are men? women?

|a. Total Population __________ |Total Men ___________ |Percent Men ___________ |

| |Total Women ___________ |Percent Women ___________ |

 

b. Is it a reasonable assumption to estimate that about half of your population are men and half are women? Explain why.

 

c. We will also estimate that about half of the population in each age group are men and half are women. Is this a reasonable assumption? If not, for which age groups would this assumption probably not be true? Explain why.

 

 

3. (15 points) Add up the number of individuals in the table you obtain for each age group:

|Age (years) |Total Number of Persons |½ Total Number of Persons |

|0-4 |_______________ |_______________ |

|5-9 |_______________ |_______________ |

|10-14 |_______________ |_______________ |

|15-19 |_______________ |_______________ |

|20-24 |_______________ |_______________ |

|25-29 |_______________ |_______________ |

|30-34 |_______________ |_______________ |

|35-39 |_______________ |_______________ |

|40-44 |_______________ |_______________ |

|45-49 |_______________ |_______________ |

|50-54 |_______________ |_______________ |

|55-59 |_______________ |_______________ |

|60-64 |_______________ |_______________ |

|65-69 |_______________ |_______________ |

|70-74 |_______________ |_______________ |

|75-79 |_______________ |_______________ |

|80-84 |_______________ |_______________ |

|85+ |_______________ |_______________ |

 

4. (25 points) Make an age-structure pyramid with your data on the attached graph paper.

 

5. (15 points) Access the site Find three countries in different parts of the world and print out their age-structure pyramids.

 

6. (15 points) Compare and contrast these three countries using their age-structure pyramids. You may want to find out some other information about these countries to give good explanations why these age-structure pyramids differ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. (10 points) Compare the age-structure pyramid you created with those of other students in the class. Do they have about the same shape? If not, what could account for the differences in their shapes?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Age-Structure Pyramid

For (Country)_____________________________

|AGE |Male |Female |

__85+ ____________________________________|___________________________________

80-84 ____________________________________|___________________________________

75-79 ____________________________________|___________________________________

70-74 ____________________________________|___________________________________

65-69 ____________________________________|___________________________________

60-64 ____________________________________|___________________________________

55-59 ____________________________________|___________________________________

50-54 ____________________________________|___________________________________

45-49 ____________________________________|___________________________________

40-44 ____________________________________|___________________________________

35-39 ____________________________________|___________________________________

30-34 ____________________________________|___________________________________

25-29 ____________________________________|___________________________________

20-24 ____________________________________|___________________________________

15-19 ____________________________________|___________________________________

10-14 ____________________________________|___________________________________

__5-9 ____________________________________|___________________________________

__0-4 ____________________________________|___________________________________

…………|………|………|………|………|………0………|………|………|………|………|…………

Population

 

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Age-Structure Pyramids Worksheet (Answers)

1. (5 points) Access the site Type in a city, county, state or zip code to search for, then click Search. You may get a list of several areas with that name; decide which area is the one you are interested in. Under Lookup 1990 Census under that area, click on STF1A tables. Click P1 persons, P5 Sex and P11 Age. Click the HTML format, go to the top of the page, and then click Submit.

Madison, WI was chosen

 

2. (5 points each). Since this data is not separated according to gender, estimate that about half of the population will be men and half women. What percent of your population are men? women?

|a. Total Population _191262_ |Total Men _93179_ |Percent Men _48.7%_ |

| |Total Women _98083_ |Percent Women _ 51.3% _ |

 

b. Is it a reasonable assumption to estimate that about half of your population are men and half are women? Explain why.

Yes, since 48.7% and 51.3% are very close.

c. We will also estimate that about half of the population in each age group are men and half are women. Is this a reasonable assumption? If not, for which age groups would this assumption probably not be true? Explain why.

No, because in the other pyramids we looked at, there were a lot more older women than men in the age groups over 60.

 

3. (15 points) Add up the number of individuals in the table you obtain for each age group:

 

|Age (years) |Total Number of Persons |½ Total Number of Persons |

|0-4 |11,863 |5,931 |

|5-9 |10,387 |5,193 |

|10-14 |8,527 |4,263 |

|15-19 |16,297 |8,148 |

|20-24 |30,670 |15,335 |

|25-29 |20,777 |10,388 |

|30-34 |18,220 |9,110 |

|35-39 |16,257 |8,128 |

|40-44 |13,124 |6,562 |

|45-49 |8,864 |4,432 |

|50-54 |6,605 |3,302 |

|55-59 |5,917 |2,958 |

|60-64 |5,923 |2,961 |

|65-69 |5,458 |2,729 |

|70-74 |4,354 |2,177 |

|75-79 |3,309 |1,699 |

|80-84 |2,408 |1,204 |

|85+ |2,211 |1,105 |

 

4. (25 points) Make an age-structure pyramid with your data on the attached graph paper.

 

5. (15 points) Access the site Find three countries in different parts of the world and print out their age-structure pyramids.

 

|[pic] |

|[pic] |

|[pic] |

 

6. (15 points) Compare and contrast these three countries using their age-structure pyramids. You may want to find out some other information about these countries to give good explanations why these age-structure pyramids differ.

Access the international census site and obtain more population data about these three countries.

| |Afghanistan | |Iceland | |Japan | |

| |1998 |2010 |1998 |2010 |1998 |2010 |

|Births per 1,000 people |42 |37 |15 |12 |10 |9 |

|Deaths per 1,000 people |17 |13 |7 |8 |8 |10 |

|Rate of natural increase (percent) |2.5 |2.4 |0.8 |0.5 |0.2 |-0.1 |

|Annual rate of growth (percent) |4.2 |2.4 |0.5 |0.3 |0.2 |-0.1 |

|Life expectancy at birth (years) |46.8 |53.1 |78.8 |80.1 |80.0 |81.1 |

|Infant deaths per 1,000 live births |144 |107 |5 |5 |4 |4 |

|Totality fertility rate (per woman) |6.0 |5.1 |2.0 |1.8 |1.5 |1.5 |

 

Japan's pyramid is smaller on the bottom because it's annual rate of growth is very small and is projected to be negative in 2010. Afghanistan's pyramid is very large on the bottom because its annual rate of growth is large; also the death rate is much larger and life expectancy much smaller.

 

7. (10 points) Compare the age-structure pyramid you created with those of other students in the class. Do they have about the same shape? If not, what could account for the differences in their shapes?

Because of the University of Wisconsin in Madison, which enrolls a large number of both undergraduate and graduate students, the 18-35 year old age groups will have a much greater proportion of individuals than other cities. UWM students account for the wide spread in these age groups.

  

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Age-Structure Pyramid

For _________Madison, WI___________

|AGE |Male |Female |

__85+ __________________________________**|**_________________________________

80-84 _________________________________***|***________________________________

75-79 ________________________________****|****_______________________________

70-74 _______________________________*****|*****______________________________

65-69 ______________________________******|******_____________________________

60-64 _____________________________*******|*******____________________________

55-59 _____________________________*******|*******____________________________

50-54 ____________________________********|********___________________________

45-49 __________________________**********|**********_________________________

40-44 ______________________**************|**************_____________________

35-39 ___________________*****************|*****************__________________

30-34 ________________********************|********************_______________

25-29 ______________**********************|**********************_____________

20-24 ____********************************|********************************___

15-19 ___________________*****************|*****************__________________

10-14 ___________________________*********|*********__________________________

__5-9 _________________________***********|***********________________________

__0-4 _______________________*************|*************______________________

…….15………12………9………6………3………0………3………6………9………12……15……

Population in Thousands

 

 

 

 

[pic]

1990 US Census Data

Database: C90STF1A

Summary Level: State--Place

[pic]

Madison city: FIPS.STATE=55, FIPS.PLACE90=48000

PERSONS

Universe: Persons

Total..................................................................191262

SEX

Universe: Persons

Male....................................................................93179

Female..................................................................98083

AGE

Universe: Persons

Under 1 year.............................................................2190

1 and 2 years............................................................5043

3 and 4 years............................................................4630

5 years..................................................................2247

6 years..................................................................2141

7 to 9 years.............................................................5999

10 and 11 years..........................................................3593

12 and 13 years..........................................................3343

14 years.................................................................1591

15 years.................................................................1632

16 years.................................................................1544

17 years.................................................................1702

18 years.................................................................4025

19 years.................................................................7394

20 years.................................................................7653

21 years.................................................................7267

22 to 24 years..........................................................15750

25 to 29 years..........................................................20777

30 to 34 years..........................................................18220

35 to 39 years..........................................................16257

40 to 44 years..........................................................13124

45 to 49 years...........................................................8864

50 to 54 years...........................................................6605

55 to 59 years...........................................................5917

60 and 61 years..........................................................2335

62 to 64 years...........................................................3588

65 to 69 years...........................................................5459

70 to 74 years...........................................................4354

75 to 79 years...........................................................3399

80 to 84 years...........................................................2408

85 years and over........................................................2211

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pic]

1990 US Census Data

Database: C90STF3A

Summary Level: State--Place

[pic]

Madison city: FIPS.STATE=55, FIPS.PLACE90=48000

RACE BY SEX BY AGE

Universe: White males

Under 1 year..............................................................873

1 and 2 years............................................................2172

3 and 4 years............................................................1868

5 years...................................................................968

6 years..................................................................1033

7 to 9 years.............................................................2699

10 and 11 years..........................................................1586

12 and 13 years..........................................................1363

14 years..................................................................713

15 years..................................................................619

16 years..................................................................691

17 years..................................................................809

18 years.................................................................1767

19 years.................................................................3229

20 years.................................................................3523

21 years.................................................................3590

22 to 24 years...........................................................7385

25 to 29 years...........................................................9419

30 to 34 years...........................................................7866

35 to 39 years...........................................................7322

40 to 44 years...........................................................5950

45 to 49 years...........................................................4063

50 to 54 years...........................................................2930

55 to 59 years...........................................................2698

60 and 61 years..........................................................1004

62 to 64 years...........................................................1688

65 to 69 years...........................................................2238

70 to 74 years...........................................................1832

75 to 79 years...........................................................1216

80 to 84 years............................................................734

85 years and over.........................................................471

RACE BY SEX BY AGE

Universe: White females

Under 1 year..............................................................840

1 and 2 years............................................................2107

3 and 4 years............................................................1957

5 years...................................................................855

6 years...................................................................886

7 to 9 years.............................................................2445

10 and 11 years..........................................................1417

12 and 13 years..........................................................1342

14 years..................................................................679

15 years..................................................................629

16 years..................................................................586

17 years..................................................................747

18 years.................................................................1828

19 years.................................................................3537

20 years.................................................................3437

21 years.................................................................3573

22 to 24 years...........................................................6847

25 to 29 years...........................................................8917

30 to 34 years...........................................................8261

35 to 39 years...........................................................7675

40 to 44 years...........................................................5995

45 to 49 years...........................................................4640

50 to 54 years...........................................................3245

55 to 59 years...........................................................3040

60 and 61 years..........................................................1221

62 to 64 years...........................................................1947

65 to 69 years...........................................................2544

70 to 74 years...........................................................2753

75 to 79 years...........................................................2194

80 to 84 years...........................................................1717

85 years and over........................................................1510

RACE BY SEX BY AGE

Universe: Black males

Under 1 year..............................................................123

1 and 2 years.............................................................289

3 and 4 years.............................................................249

5 years...................................................................106

6 years...................................................................100

7 to 9 years..............................................................265

10 and 11 years...........................................................150

12 and 13 years...........................................................156

14 years...................................................................81

15 years...................................................................80

16 years...................................................................43

17 years...................................................................40

18 years...................................................................71

19 years..................................................................144

20 years...................................................................50

21 years...................................................................61

22 to 24 years............................................................181

25 to 29 years............................................................519

30 to 34 years............................................................448

35 to 39 years............................................................417

40 to 44 years............................................................330

45 to 49 years............................................................171

50 to 54 years.............................................................88

55 to 59 years............................................................130

60 and 61 years.............................................................6

62 to 64 years.............................................................23

65 to 69 years.............................................................54

70 to 74 years.............................................................21

75 to 79 years.............................................................11

80 to 84 years..............................................................0

85 years and over...........................................................0

 

Etc.

 

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