The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas ...

The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts

July 2021

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The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas

Electric Grid Blackouts

A report by a committee of faculty and staff at The University of Texas at Austin July 2021

COMMITTEE CHAIRS

Carey W. King, Research Scientist, Assistant Director, Energy Institute Josh D. Rhodes, Research Associate, Department of Mechanical Engineering

Jay Zarnikau, Research Fellow, Department of Economics

COMMITTEE MEMBERS

Contributing Authors Ning Lin, Chief Economist, Bureau of Economic Geology

Additional Members Erhan Kutanoglu, Associate Professor, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Benjamin Leibowicz, Assistant Professor, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering Dev Niyogi, Professor, Department of Geological Sciences; Professor, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering Varun Rai, Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs; Director, Energy Institute Surya Santoso, Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering David Spence, Baker Botts Chair in Law, School of Law; Professor, Department of Business, Government, and Society Stathis Tompaidis, Professor, Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management, and by courtesy, Department of Finance Hao Zhu, Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

OTHER CONTRIBUTORS

Erik Funkhouser, Director for Research Coordination and Partnerships, Energy Institute Brent Austgen, Graduate Research Assistant, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 7

1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 12 1.1 Objective ................................................................................................................ 12 1.2. Energy in Texas ..................................................................................................... 13

2. Timeline of Events Related to February 2021 ERCOT Blackouts.15 2.1. ERCOT's Winter 2020/2021 SARA report ............................................................. 15 2.2. The Week Before Winter Storm Uri......................................................................18

2.2.1. Weather and Load Forecasts and Alerts...................................................18 2.2.2. Recall of Power Plant Outages for Maintenance......................................24 2.3. The Week of Winter Storm Uri (February 13-20, 2021) ....................................... 25 2.4. Generation Outages (Timeline) ............................................................................ 28 2.4.1. Generator Temperature Ratings Relative to Experienced Temperatures.34 2.5. Load Curtailment, Requested and Achieved ........................................................ 36 2.5.1. Involuntary Load Shed ..............................................................................36 2.5.2. Response to High Prices ...........................................................................37 2.5.3. Deployment of Load Resources................................................................38 2.5.4. ERS Program .............................................................................................38 2.5.5. Automated Load Shedding via Under-frequency Relays ..........................39 2.5.6. Deployment of Various Demand Response (DR) Programs by LoadServing Entities ...................................................................................................40 2.5.7. Aggregate Levels of Demand Response ...................................................41 2.6. Natural Gas and Operations during February 2021..............................................41 2.6.1. Natural Gas Production ............................................................................41 2.6.2. Storage......................................................................................................45 2.6.3. Natural Gas Demand ................................................................................48 2.6.4. Exports By Pipeline and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) ...............................52 2.6.5. Texas Pipeline Exports ..............................................................................53 2.6.6. Texas LNG exports.....................................................................................55 2.6.7. Natural Gas Infrastructure Participation in Load Curtailment..................56

3. Electricity and Natural Gas Financial Flows and Prices ................. 57 3.1. Energy Prices ......................................................................................................... 57 3.2. Ancillary Service Prices.......................................................................................... 59 3.3. PUCT Orders During February Blackout................................................................59

3.3.1. Electricity Market Price Changes/Corrections During the Event..............60 3.4. Financial Fallout .................................................................................................... 64

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4. A Comparison to Winter Events in 2011 and 1989 ......................... 70 4.1. December 1989 Winter Event .............................................................................. 70 4.2. February 2011 Winter Event.................................................................................71 4.3. Comparison of the Three Events .......................................................................... 73 5. Summary ................................................................................................. 76 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................77 Conflict of Interest Statements .................................................................. 78 References ....................................................................................................... 79 Appendix A. Short History of Texas Electric Grid and ERCOT: From the Beginning to 2021 .......................................................................................... 82 A.1. Why Does Texas Have Its Own Grid?....................................................................82 A.2. Wholesale Market Restructuring (Deregulation) and Adjustment Timeline ....... 84 A.3. Why isn't ERCOT Connected to Other Grids?.......................................................87 A.4. Today's ERCOT Wholesale Market ....................................................................... 88 A.5. Characteristics of the ERCOT Retail market ......................................................... 88 A.6. Summary: ERCOT History and Current Status ...................................................... 90 Appendix B. Internal ERCOT Meteorological Discussions Before the Storm ................................................................................................................ 92 Appendix C. Generator Outages Relative to Time Reaching Freezing Temperature.................................................................................................... 94 Appendix D. Texas Natural Gas Balance .................................................... 97 Appendix E. Other (non-energy) Infrastructures Impacted from Storm: Water and Housing ....................................................................................... 100

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List of Figures

Chapter One Figure 1.a ................................................................................................................................................ 13

Chapter Two Figure 2.a................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 2.b ................................................................................................................................................17 Figure 2.c................................................................................................................................................ 18 Figure 2.d ............................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 2.e. .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.f ................................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 2.g ...............................................................................................................................................24 Figure 2.h ...............................................................................................................................................24 Figure 2.i .................................................................................................................................................25 Figure 2.j.. ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 2.k................................................................................................................................................28 Figure 2.l .................................................................................................................................................29 Figure 2.m............................................................................................................................................. 30 Figure 2.n .............................................................................................................................................. 33 Figure 2.o. ............................................................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2.p .............................................................................................................................................. 35 Figure 2.q. ..............................................................................................................................................42 Figure 2.r ............................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 2.s............................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 2.t ............................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 2.u. ............................................................................................................................................. 46 Figure 2.v............................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 2.w ..............................................................................................................................................47 Figure 2.x................................................................................................................................................47 Figure 2.y............................................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 2.z ............................................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 2.aa............................................................................................................................................ 49 Figure 2.bb. ........................................................................................................................................... 51 Figure ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Figure 2.dd ............................................................................................................................................52 Figure 2.ee ........................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 2.ff.............................................................................................................................................. 54 Figure 2.gg ........................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 2.hh ........................................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 2.ii ............................................................................................................................................... 56

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Chapter Three Figure 3.a .............................................................................................................................................. 58 Figure 3.b .............................................................................................................................................. 59 Figure 3.c. .............................................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 3.d .............................................................................................................................................. 63 Figure 3.e .............................................................................................................................................. 64 Appendix A Figure A.1 .............................................................................................................................................. 89 Figure A.2............................................................................................................................................... 91 Appendix C Figure C.1 .............................................................................................................................................. 95 Appendix D Figure D.1 ...............................................................................................................................................97 Figure D.2.............................................................................................................................................. 99 Figure D.3 ............................................................................................................................................. 99

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List of Tables

Chapter Two Table 2.a. ................................................................................................................................................ 27 Table 2.b. ............................................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter Three Table 3.a ................................................................................................................................................ 63 Chapter Four Table 4.a. ................................................................................................................................................74 Appendix A Table A.1.. .............................................................................................................................................. 85

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Executive Summary

Objective

This report recounts the factors contributing to disruptions in electricity and natural gas service in Texas during Winter Storm Uri, with a particular focus on blackouts on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid during the period from February 15-18, 2021. Our goal is to create a common basis of fact to educate the debate over strategies to avoid similar problems in the future. We specifically limited the scope of this report to the events during February 2021, a comparison of the February 2021 event to the previous energy system disruptions in 1989 and 2011 during winter storms, and the economic consequences of the event in February 2021. An appendix describes the long-term evolution of the ERCOT electricity market and provides historical context.

This report is not intended to comprehensively address all issues stemming from such a complex event, but may inform subsequent assessments. This report does not recommend policies or solutions.

Data

To perform the analysis presented in this report, we reviewed a variety of public information sources, analyses conducted by the staff of ERCOT, testimony before state legislative committees, and public data archives provided by ERCOT. In addition, and through an agreement with the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), select members of our project team were provided access to certain confidential data collected by the PUCT and ERCOT pertaining to the performance of specific electric generating units, enrollment of energy consumers in ERCOT's Emergency Response Service program, communications regarding the winter storm, and other relevant information.1 We also used a proprietary source of data to explore the performance of the natural gas industry during the event. We further considered and analyzed meteorological and other technical data that groups within the University of Texas at Austin (UT) have acquired for other research purposes.

Findings

The failure of the electricity and natural gas systems serving Texas before and during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 had no single cause. While the 2021 storm did not set records for the lowest recorded temperatures in many parts of the state, it caused generation outages and a loss of electricity service to Texas customers several times more severe than winter events leading to electric service disruptions in December 1989 and February 2011. The 2021 event exceeded prior events with respect to both the number and capacity of generation unit outages, the maximum

1 Josh Rhodes and Carey King of the project team were provided access to the confidential data.

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