**FIRST DRAFT**

If the two “events”, spade on first card and spade on second card, are to be independent (i.e., that the outcome of the second event does not depend upon the outcome of the first event) the first card must be replaced. If so, the desired probability is 1/4 for the first card times 1/4 for the second card, which is equal to 1/16 or 6.25%. ................
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