Inventory and Analysis - Durand, Wisconsin



Community Inventory and Analysis

Compiling an inventory of a community’s resources and attributes is an essential component of effective land use planning. The inventory provides the basis for determining which resources and attributes are valued and which resources can be enhanced for effective preservation and growth management plans. Each of the elements contained in this plan have an inventory of related resources. This section contains the inventory and analysis of the community profile and a summary of the education opportunities and levels, income levels and employment characteristics and forecasts, as well as the overall planning issues and opportunties. It is written in a manner that facilitates quick and easy reference for use during and after the comprehensive planning process.

Community Profile

A look at the City of Durand’s community profile will aid with it’s needs assessment and the decision-making processes. As part of the community profile, several historical patterns in the City of Durand are considered including: population characteristics; demographic trends; and population, household and labor force predictions.

2.0 Population Characteristics

Population features that affect community dynamics and the planning process are population trends, age distribution, household statistics (including average household size), population composition in terms of race and gender,and finally, employment characteristics and income levels.

Population Trends

Between 1970 and 2000, the population in the City of Durand experienced a steady decline of roughly 2% each decade with a 1970 population of 2,103 and a 2000 population of 1,968. Comparatively, Pepin County’s population saw frequent fluctuation while the State of Wisconsin saw steady to rapid growth(see Graph IO 1). However, between 2000-2009 Pepin County began to show similar increases to that of the State of Wisconsin with an increase of roughly 33.68 percent (see IO 2). During that same time period, Durand’s population has remained relatively stagnant.

IO 1: Population Trend, Percent Change

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Source: US Census Data

IO 2: Recent Population Changes

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Source: Wisconsin DOA

Age Distribution

As reported by the 2000 Census Report, the age distribution for the City of Durand is considered middle-aged with more than 50 percent of the population aged between 19 and 64 years old. When compared to Pepin County, the City of Durand’s age distibution has higher percentages in both the “18 and under” and “65 or over” categories. Graph IO 3 depicts the comparison between the City of Durand and Pepin County’s age distribution. Due to the larger percentage of individuals in the “65 or over” category, the City of Durand’s median age is also considered slightly higher than that of Pepin County’s.

IO 3: Age Group Distribution Chart – City of Durand

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Source: US Census Data

For the City of Durand, this information becomes more relevant as we consider the community trends and needs for an aging population. Graph I0 4 compares the changes in age distribution between 1990 and 2000. As shown, the decrease in school-aged individuals (18 years old or less) was offset by the increase in the “19 to 64” and “65 or over” age categories. These figures tend to indicate that resident migration is relatively low (meaning that residents tend to remain living in their same homes even when children move out) or that age distribution for out-migration is relatively similar in structure to that of the in-migration. In either case, the trends represented by this information have several significant affects for a community to consider. The decrease in school-aged children may impact school funding and other youth-oriented services. The increase in population of the “65 or over” category may increase the dependency or need for medical facilities and governmental programs. An assumption could be made that the increase in individuals aged 65 or over may be attributed to the development of the Chippewa Valley Hospital Nursing Home and other “senior” housing options within the city limits.

In general, it appears that the City of Durand’s age distribution is relatively consistent with Pepin County as a whole. For the sake of comparison, Pepin County’s percentages of age distribution were 31.2% aged “18 or younger”, 51.2% aged “19 to 64” and 18.6% aged “65 or over” in 1990. If one compared this information with Graph IO 3, you would be able to see that the increase in median age experienced by Durand during the decade was not quite as severe as that of Pepin County. A decrease in the percentage of individuals aged “18 or younger” of more than 8% was offset by an increase in the percentage of individuals aged “19 to 64”. This is slightly less than double the rate of age-migration from school-aged children to adults that the City of Durand experienced. As in most rural areas of Wisconsin, the data suggests that a significant number of individuals leave the community after graduating high school, resulting in a “brain drain”.

IO 4: Age Group Distribution Chart – Sauk County

[pic]Source: US Census Data

2.1 Household Statistics

Number of Households

Table IO 5 shows U.S. Census household counts for the City of Durand for the period 1970 through 2000. These counts are then compared to housing counts for several surrounding communities as well as Pepin County. The number of households in the City grew by 186 from 1970 through 2000, which constitutes an increase of approximately 26%. This figure compares to 46% for the Village of Pepin, and 45% for the City of Mondovi and 29% for Pepin County during the same period. While the City did experience growth during the 30-year historical period, its growth rate was much less than that of the City of Mondovi and Village of Pepin. However, after a relatively stagnant housing market during the 1980’s, the City did show signs of recovery during the 90’s with 52 new housing starts.

IO 5: Number of Households

[pic]Source: US Census Data

Population and Housing Density

Another comparative tool that can be utilized during a comprehensive planning process is to compare population and housing statistics for a community through a density calculation. This calculation will provide additional insight into development patterns and provide background information as the City of Durand determines its future development policies and practices. In 2000, with a population of 1,968 persons and a land area of approximately 1.7 square miles (roughly 1,088 acres), the City of Durand’s population density was 1229.4 persons per square mile or roughly 2 people per acre. A calculation can also be made to determine what the housing density of the City of Durand was in 2000 by dividing the number of housing units (887) by the total land area. This equates to 547 houses per square mile or a little less than one home on each acre.

Average Household Size

Another factor that will be explored further in this document is the trend of decreasing family size experienced throughout the United States. Simply put, couples are having less children, thereby decreasing the average household size. IO 6: Average Household Size Comparison

According to US Census information, the average household size for the City of Durand has decreased from 2.91 in 1970 to 2.29 in 2000. Comparatively (see IO 6 and IO 7), the average household size in Pepin County also decreased, dropping from 3.2 people per household in 1970 to 2.57 people per household in 2000. This data suggests that married couples are having less children during the comparative time frame than in the past.

IO 7: Regional Average Household Size

Source: US Census Data

2.2 Population Composition: Age, Gender and Race

Median age is defined as the age above which half of the population is found and below which the other half is found. The median age data for the City of Durand is not readily available for 1990, however, according to table IO 8, the median age in 2000 was 41.1 years old. This is above Pepin County’s median age of 38.7. In looking at population composition, the City of Durand is a predominantly white community that is home to a nearly equal amount of men and women. It is 98.9% white, 0.2% Black or African American, 0.2% Native American, 0.2% Hispanic or Latino and 0.2% Asian. In comparison with Pepin County, the City of Durand has a few more minorities. Pepin County is predominantly white as well with .1% Black or African American and .35% Hispanic or Latino and 0.4%. Individuals under 18 (24.8%) as well as individuals over 65 (23.1%) account for about one-fourth of the population each. The City of Durand has a greater percentage of people over 65 than Pepin County, where 16.5% of the population is older than 65.

IO 8: Age, Gender and Race Characteristics

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Source: US Census Data

2.3 Employment Characteristics

Education Levels IO 9: Educational Levels (Town vs. County)

According to the 2000 Census (cited in IO 9 & IO 10), 81.3% of the population within the City of Durand holds a high school diploma or higher, while 14% holds a bachelors degree or higher. This is compared to the 1990 Census figures of 71.8% of the population holding a high school diploma or higher, and 12.8% holding a bachelors degree or higher. The data from the City is relatively consistent with that from Pepin County. This data indicates that the level of education is increasing in the City as well as Pepin County.

Source: US Census Data

IO 10: Educational Levels

Source: US Census Data

Labor Force Characteristics

In 2000, 1,557 residents 16 years of age and older accounted for the City of Durand’s civilian labor force (see IO 11: Labor Force). Civilian labor force can be defined as those individuals who are currently employed or that are actively seeking employmen that are at least 16 years of age. Of those residents considered to be part of the civilian labor force, 951 residents (61 %) were considered the City’s employed labor force. The difference in population between the actual labor force and those individuals that are sixteen years of age or older is reflective of several employment characteristics of the City of Durand. First, the City of Durand’s population that is aged 65 or older is 480 individuals. Children aged 16-18 years old also total more than 80 individuals according to the 2000 Census information. Collectively, these two categories may represent more than 90% of the potential civilian workforce that is not actively employed. These factors, combined with single-income households as well as other individuals who may be residing in group living quarters (including Oakview Nursing Home) help provide some valuable insight into the large discrepency between the population and the actual labor force figures. It should be pointed out in either case that this statistical information is based on information gathered from surveys by the US Census and does not necessarily match the official figures compiled by the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) for Counties, MSA’s, and larger municipalities (population over 25,000) within the State. DWD does not calculate numbers for municipalities with populations under 25,000 so information is not readily available for the City of Durand or Pepin County.

IO 11: Labor Force Characteristics

Source: US Census Data

2.4 Income Levels

Income Level Comparisons

Income levels of households provide insight as to the economic vitality and housing needs of the City of Durand. Charts IO 12 and IO 13 show the household income distribution for the City of Durand in 1999. Table IO 14 provides the household income distribution from 1989 for comparative reasons. These graphs indicated that Durand’s dominant categories of income are in the lower-middle of the distribution. In 1999, incomes between about $15,000 and about $30,000 dominated. In comparison to Pepin County and the State of Wisconsin, the household income for the City of Durand lagged behind the region and state, where the larger categories of income tended to be in the $35,000 to $75,000 range.

IO 12: Income Distribution Comparison

[pic] Source: US Census Data

IO 13: Household Income Comparison 1999

[pic]Source: US Census Data

Median and Average Household Income

Another tool in the assessment of income distribution is the comparison of the median household income with the average household income for a particular year. A median value represents the middle value in an ordered list of data values. It divides the values into two equal parts with one half of the values falling below the median and one half falling above the median. Therefore, the median household income is the income value at which half of the other income values are above and one half are below. In contrast, average household income (as represented in IO 14 and IO 15) is calculated by dividing aggregate household income by the number of households in a given geographic area for a given year. In 1989, the median household income for the City of Durand was $23,333, while the average household income was $26,154 (please refer to IO 14). The ratio of the average to the median income is 1.12. These values are relatively equal, meaning that the mean income has a value that is truly at the middle of the spectrum of other values. There are fewer values significantly lower or higher than this value. In comparing IO 15 to IO 14, the 1999 data is signficantly different. In 1999, the median household income for the City was $30,064 while the average household income was $40,932. The ratio of the two values is 1.36. This means that the average income is 36% greater than the median income. There are more outlying values on the upper end of the spectrum, meaning that more money exists above the median income than below. As a result, these larger incomes cause average household income to be higher. Therefore, this analysis shows that from 1990 to 2000, the City of Durand gained more affluence in its upper income brackets.

IO 14: Household Income Comparison – 1989

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IO 15: 1999 Median and Average Household Incomes

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Income Based on Housing Affordability

Income can be better analyzed if the median income of an area is known. Income can be broken down into categories using the median income. Housing Wisconsin defines extremely low income as income below 30% of the median income, very low income as income between 30% and 50% of the median income, low income as income 50-80% of the median income, and moderate income as income 80%-100% of the median income. In 2000, the Durand’s median income was $30,064. The calculation for income levels using this median income are shown in IO 16. For the ease of interpretation, especially in relation to how the census breaks down household incomes, the numbers have been rounded. For the purposes of this report, extremely low income is income below $10,000, and very low income is between $10,000 and $15,000. Low income is between $15,000 and $25,000 and moderate income is from $25,000 to $35,000. In looking at the income breakdown for the 2000 census, it is evident that 11.5% of the population has extremely low income, 10.9% of the population has very low income, 18.2% of the population has low income. In other words, 40.6% of the population have incomes below the moderate level. 17.6% of the population has moderate income. By comparing the census statistics between 1990 and 2000, you can more easily see how income levels affect housing costs and the determination of affordability for the City of Durand. Although the median household income has improved considerably, especially with regard to extremely low income households, poverty still plays a predominant role in Durand. This statistical information will be further discussed in the Housing Chapter of this comprehensive plan.

IO 16: Household Median Income and Affordability

Summary and Analysis of the City’s Demographic Trends/Characteristics

➢ The City of Durand’s population has remained relatively stagnant over the last 20 years, experiencing a slight decline.

➢ The age distribution of the City is somewhat similar to Pepin County’s, with a higher median age and a significantly higher percentage of people in the age group 65 years or older.

➢ While the population of the City of Durand has continued to decline in the last twenty years, the number of housing has increased slightly from 845 units to 887.

➢ The housing density for the City of Durand is roughly 1 house per acre while the population density was approximately 1,229 persons per square mile or roughly two people per acre.

➢ The average household size for the City of Durand has continually declined from 2.43 persons per household in 1990 to 2.29 persons per household in 2000, which is considerably lower than the average household size for Pepin County at 2.57 persons.

➢ In 2000, the median age of the City was 41.1, compared to 38.7 for the County.

➢ A little more than 1% of the population of the City of Durand is considered having an ethnic background, which is statistically consistent with Pepin County.

➢ The City has slightly more females than males while Pepin County is relatively even.

➢ In 2000, about 81% of the City’s population holds a high school diploma while 14% hold a bachelors degree or higher.

➢ In 2000, roughly 96% of the City’s civilian labor force was employed.

➢ The median household income for the City of Durand is significantly lower than that of Pepin County and the State of Wisconsin.

➢ The City’s average household income has grown faster than that of Pepin County, but has lagged significantly behind the State of Wisconsin as a whole.

➢ In 2000, roughly 58% of the City’s population were considered low to moderate income when comparing housing costs to household income.

In order to utilize the information that has been presented thus far in this document for comprehensive planning purposes, it must first be analyzed to determine why the historic trends have taken place, and what exactly it all means in terms of developing forecasts for the City over the next 20 years.

Demographic Analysis

The first historic trend to be analyzed here is the continuing decline in population over the last three decades. Explaining population trends can be a difficult task to address, but there are certain factors that can help explain population trends that are more apparent than birth and death rates, immigration and emmigration. With that being said, the City of Durand experienced a decline in population between 1970 and 2000 of 135 individuals, according to census information. To an outsider, this statistic maybe somewhat puzzling in light of the fact that 186 housing units were constructed during that same time period. However, a more thorough investigation of other tangible factors will provide answers as to why that decline took place and what that may mean in the long run.

To answer the question why, one need to look no further for a starting point than the average household size (see IO 7)and housing vacancy rates in the City. According to table IO 5, the City had a total of 701 housing units in 1970. Although occupancy information is not readily available for the timeframe, if one were to assume a standardized occupancy rate of 97%, the result would be approximately 680 occupied housing units. Multiplying the number of occupied housing units (680) by the average household size of 2.91 persons, results in a total of 1,979 household residents. In 2000, the City’s housing stock increased to 887 total housing units, but decreased in occupancy to 94%, for a total of 829 occupied housing units respectively. Again, by multiplying the number of occupied housing units by the average household size of 2.29 persons per household, the result is a decrease of 81 individuals or a total of 1,898 household residents. As you can see, even with an increase in the City’s housing stock, the average household size and occupancy rates had direct impacts on the City’s population, accounting for roughly 60% of the decrease.

Another factor that can have major implications on the City’s population is the number of persons residing within group quarters. The City of Durand has two institutions that would be considered group quarters, the Oakview Nursing Home and the Pepin County Jail. Although the populations of the institutional housing does not necessarily account for the loss of population between 1970 and 2000 (see IO 17), if added to the population determined above based on occupancy and average household size, the total population figures for the City of Durand seems to be supported. The number of individuals who live in institutional group quarters between 1990 and 2000 held steady at 68 individuals which would result in a total population of approximately 1,966 residents, which is almost exactly what the census figures were for 2000. Again, figures were not available for 1970. Without more detailed data, it is difficult to determine to a high degree what components comprised the 1970 census for Durand, however, the information provided herein fairly represents the population of the City of Durand in 2000.

IO 17: Population Analysis

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Housing Analysis

As mentioned earlier, the City has experienced a net increase in total housing units in the last two decades of approximately 42 units, or roughly a 5% increase according to US Census figures (please refer to IO5). In essence, this translates to roughly two new housing units per year on average. By comparison, the City’s growth in housing lagged behind that of the neighboring Village of Pepin and City of Mondovi during the same period, but was relatively consistent with Pepin County. These historic housing figures for the City of Durand seem to be supported by records retained by the Durand City Hall, which reported the issuance of 29 permits for new housing starts since 2000. This would translate to roughly 3 new homes per year on average, slightly increasing the average from the previous 20 years. (It should be noted that the data contained at the Durand City Hall does not include the number of housing units that have been razed or lost to a natural event or disaster) Again, as part of this analysis, we will attempt to answer the questions: 1) why? and, 2) what does it mean?

One factor to consider that has a large effect on the number of new housing starts in the City of Durand is the availability of land for development. Approximately 30 new residential lots have been platted since 2000. A majority of these lots have been developed and are taken into account with the new housing starts reported above. The remaining lots that have not been developed as of yet have certain physical limitations that will make their development either difficult or even impossible, perhaps. A review of the vacant lots through the Pepin County Land Information Website indicates that there remains approximately 10 buildable lots within the City of Durand at this time. Seven of those lots are owned and controlled by a development company while the remaining three lots have several site limitations which may affect their market appeal.

Another factor that may affect the new housing starts are the recent housing trends. New construction has dropped significantly on a regional and national level. Unemployment is reaching heights which haven’t been seen in more than 30 years. Although lending rates are at historic lows, credit for new housing starts remains largely tight. Sales of homes have dropped significantly and foreclosure rates have increased considerably. The number of existing homes that are listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) have increased dramatically leaving an extremely tight market for new housing starts. Collectively, these housing market trends may be playing a large role in the stagnancy of the current housing market, but that would not have been the case for the previous 15 years in which many communities in western Wisconsin saw significant housing growth.

One final factor that will effect the construction and sale of new single family homes is obvious, market demand. In a relatively limited rural area, the Durand housing market is hindered by rule number one in the real estate industry: location, location, location. Jobs, primarily high paying jobs, help to create market demand for housing. In looking at the average household incomes for Durand, this market lags behind Pepin County, the region and the State of Wisconsin.

What does all of this mean? First and foremost, although the current housing market is in a recession, it is not the reason the City of Durand’s housing growth has been relatively low or stagnant for the past twenty years. The two larger factors that appear to be affecting the City of Durand are developable land availability and local demand. These issues will be discussed in more detail throughout this plan. It will be important for the community to determine during this planning process if one of the main focuses of this planning process will be to attempt to change the historic housing trends or to continue to accept the pace of growth in the community. Other issues to address during this process which relate to housing development may include: density, location, amount, type and affordability. These issues will be further explored in the Housing element of this Plan.

Employment and Income Analysis

Two contributing factors that help determine how an area may develop are employment opportunities and income potential. This information is essential to determine where individuals may travel to work, shop, recreate, etc. The intent of this analysis is to evaluate the employment characteristics of the City’s labor force and its resulting income. In order to do this, please consider the City’s Labor Force Characteristics as shown graphically in IO 11. As you can see, the City’s unemployment percentage has historical been fairly comparable to Pepin County as a whole with approximately 95% of the civilian labor force employed in 1990 and 96% employed in 2000. In addition, the percentage of persons who have entered and remain in the civilian labor force in the the City has been relatively consistent with that of Pepin County as well, despite the fact that the City of Durand has a higher percentage of people who reside in group quarters, namely the jail and nursing home. The nursing home facility represents slightly more than three percent of the City’s total population, however, none of the residents are considered to be within the civilian labor force. (Individuals are considered part of the civilian labor force if they are between 15 and 64 years of age and have somehow entered the labor market, i.e. received a pay check or have had income tax and FICA deducted from their wages.)

As you can see in IO 18, the residents of the City of Durand have enjoyed a strong labor market in the Chippewa Valley Region. According to 2000 U.S. Census data, the city has experienced relatively high growth in the construction; information; educational, health and social services; and the arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation and food services service sectors since 1990.

IO 18: City of Durand Employment Sectors

The remaining employment sectors experienced relative stability with the exceptions of the following categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, Mining (-50%); Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services (-34.6%); and public administration (-36.8 %). Some of the losses or differences in employment sectors may be due to reclassifications, which would help explain an increase in another sector like Educational, health… versus Public Administration. Overall, the City of Durand employment levels saw an increase in 15% over the ten year period, which is considered stable to healthy by several employment market indicators.

An area’s income potential is another important contributing factor to consider when evaluating an area’s labor force. It is essential that an area not only have a strong labor market with adequate employment opportunities, but those opportunities provide a living wage. As indicated in IO 13 and IO 15, the City of Durand’s median household income in 1999 was below that of Pepin County with a median of $30,064.00. In comparison the City median household income was significantly lower than that of the State of Wisconsin at $52,911.00. Median household income is representative of the point on a graph where there is one half of the household incomes falling below the median and one half above the median. Again, this is purely reflective of numbers of households. In comparison, the City’s average household income takes into account the income of each household to determine an average (please refer to IO 15). The average household income of City of Durand residents’ was approximately $26,154.00 in 1990 compared to $40,932.00 in 2000. The rate of growth of income was relatively comparable to that of Pepin County while the region as a whole fell far short of the average household income for Wisconsin residents of $80,553.00. These figures represent a trend in the City that indicates that not only did income growth lag behind the rate of inflation elsewhere in Wisconsin, but also that residents’ personal wealth has decreased in comparison. In effect, the percentage of households earning more than $50,000.00 increased at a significantly lower rate versus the increases experienced by Pepin County collectively and the State of Wisconsin.

What this all means is that while the Durand area labor force market continues to remain strong and experience growth, income potential is significantly lower and may hinder the housing market and other economic development efforts. Although employment opportunities primarily meet the labor supply for the area, wages have continued to rise at a slower place than the rest of the region and Wisconsin. One point of optimism to consider during the planning process is the diversity of the current labor market in Durand. No one employment sector dominants the other sectors to a point that could result in an “economic dependence” for the community. When this happens, the local economy may be one announcement away from very difficult economic times. As the City develops it’s comprehensive plan, they should consider the current employment sector make-up of the community’s employee base and determine where to focus it’s energies. These issues should also be further explored through intergovernmental forums with the other communities in Pepin County to help determine what the City’s future economic development goals and objectives should be as well as identify opportunities for shared or coordinated efforts. Better communication and cooperation between the local communities will help in fostering an econimically healthy community.

Population and Housing Forecasts

Prior to reviewing the following population and housing forecasts, one thing to keep in mind as you review the information is that these projections are based solely on the City’s historic trends. One of the numerous opportunities of this comprehensive planning effort is to analyze the City’s past trends and determine if they are desirable for the future. If the City residents feel that these projections do not accurately reflect the vision of the future for the community, the comprehensive planning process provides an opportunity for the City to change or reverse those trends by initiating new policies or programs to address the specific issues or concerns raised regarding these historic trends.

Projection 1:

Based on exponential projection (and applying the formula to the data in table IO 5), the City of Durand’s population is predicted to continue it’s decline based on the projections prepared by the Center for Land Use Education at UW Stevens Point. According to table IO 19, it is projected to decrease by 43 people from 1,968 people in 2000 to 1,925 people by 2010. By 2020, it is expected to further decrease by 42 people to 1,883 people. These figures are based on holding the occupancy rate steady at 94% with the average household size continuing an exponential decline as well. (Note: It should be pointed out that these population projections are based on data generated by the exponential growth formula used by Microsoft Excel, which does not take into account specific age cohort change, births, deaths, migration or annexation. It should also be noted that Projections #1 and #2 are not calculated in five year increments due to the fixed ten year increments in the Census data used for the projections.)

Projection 2:

By using the data generated for population forecasts for the City of Durand, we are also able to develop future population projections using the average household size as a variable. In Projection 1 (please refer to IO 19), a projection was developed for future housing units based upon the current average housing unit growth rate averaged in the last 20 years. As a result, it is anticipated that the City’s housing stock would increase by 30 units by 2010, and by 55 units by 2020 when compared to 2000 Census information. As you can see, this estimate is largely impacted by the average household size continuing its declining trend for the last two decades. In comparison, the projection provided in Projection 2 reflects a base threshold for average household size to its 2000 Census level. Based on holding the average household size constant and continuing the occupancy and growth of household units experienced in the last two decades, the projected population for the City of Durand would reverse it’s trend and increase by 6 individuals by 2010, then continue to increase by 54 individuals by 2020. The population would continue to increase based on this scenario to 2030, resulting in a population for the City of Durand of 2,084 residents or roughly a gain of 116 individuals during the 30-year span.

IO 19: Population and Housing Forecasts #1 and #2

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Source: UW Stevens Point – Center for Land Use Education

IO 20: Population Forecast #1 (Exponential)- Graph

Source: UW Stevens Point – Center for Land Use Education

Projection 3:

In the preceeding two projections, we have either held the average household size constant or continued to show a decrease based on the historic trends using a exponential calculation. However, recent census data suggest that the national trend of decreasing household size may have reached its bottom level and is now starting to trend upward again. Assuming that this current trend is accurate and applicable to the Durand area as well, we could again modify the population projections for the City of Durand by continuing to show the same level of increase in housing development along with the constant occupancy rate. However, we will change the average household size to reflect a slight increase. The impact of the increase in average household size to more current trends and standard averages for the State of Wisconsin as a whole results in a net increase of 112 persons by 2010 and 166 persons by 2020 when compared to Projection 2. Growth in housing units based on the most recent growth rates would remain the same as indicated in Projection 2, resulting in 942 housing units by 2020 for an increase of 55 units over estimated figures by the US Census for 2000.

IO 21: Population Forecast #3

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Source: UW Stevens Point – Center for Land Use Education

Projection 4:

The Wisconsin Department of Administration also prepares population estimates for communities throughout the State on an annual basis. Projection #4 is the estimate for Durand prepared by the DOA as compared to that of Pepin County (IO 22). This projection suggest that an average of Projections #2 and #3 would be more likely. Using these figures and the average household size and occupancy figures utilized in Projections #2 and #3, we can then also determine what the housing unit figures might be as well. In Projection #2, we utilize the historic occupancy rate of 94%, the average household size of 2.29 individuals, and the number of individuals in group quarters of aprpoximately 60 individuals. If we to take the DOA population estimate for 2010 of 2,079 and subtract the number of individuals in group quarters, then divide by the average household size, we end up with approximately 882 occupied housing units. Then, by dividing this figure by the occupancy rate again, we can estimate the number of housing units to be roughly 938 for 2010. By 2020, the number of housing units estimated would increase to 963. For comparative purposes, we could also utilize the same data from Projection #3 to determine slightly different housing unit estimates. By utilizing the same 2010 DOA population estimate and changing the average household size to 2.35 individuals, we would expect our housing unit number to be approximately 914. By 2020, the number of housing units would only increase slightly to 916 due to the increase in household size. An average of Projection #2 and the DOA estimate seems most likely.

IO 22: Population Forecast #4 - DOA Estimate – City versus County

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Source: Wisconsin DOA

Labor Force Forecasts

In addition to forecasting future population and housing levels, it is important to determine the future employment outlook for the City. A labor force forecast helps a community understand the age and gender make-up of their future workforce (people between the ages of 15 and 64), the size of their future workforce and how this will affect the overall population and the demand for certain future jobs in their community. A future workforce profile assists a community in planning for desired future levels and types of employment within the economy of an area. Typically, a workforce projection is based upon an analysis of the age group distribution and change in a population over time. However, it is difficult to complete these projections for the City of Durand due to insufficient Census data on future age distribution for smaller communities. Despite the inavailability of Census data, there are other approaches for preparing a possible “best guess” future labor force scenario for the City of Durand. One such method is the comparison of the population projections for the City (detailed above) with its historic labor force trends. As demonstrated in Tables IO 23 and IO 24, an average percent of population participation in the labor force was calculated using labor force, housing and population numbers from 1990 and 2000 Census data. This percent was then applied to the two preferred future population projection scenarios developed in this Chapter in order to estimate the 2010 through 2030 labor force numbers.

Labor Force Projection #1

Labor force Projection #1, shown in IO 23, is based on Population Projections #4 which was prepared by the Wisconsin Department of Administration. It is a mid-range labor force projection. It calculates the average percent of the population in the labor force as 77%. In applying this number to population estimates for 2010 through 2030, a small increase in the city’s workforce is evident. From 2000 to 2010 the labor force increases by 2.8% (44 people) from 1,557 to 1,601 total persons. From 2010 to 2020, it futher increases by 2.6% (42 people). The same is true out to 2030.

IO 23: Labor Force Projection #1

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Source: US Census Data and Wisconsin DOA Population Projections

Labor Force Projection #2

Labor force projection #2, based on Population Projection #1, which is the lowest projection. It is shown in IO 24 on the following page. It suggests an opposite trend to labor force projection #1, focusing on an decrease in labor force. Using a 77% involvement rate of the population in the labor force, it forecasts a 4.8% decrease in the labor force (75 people) from 2000 to 2010. This means there would be a labor force of 1,482 people in 2010. This is dramatically different than Labor Force Projections #1 and #3, but is offered to provide a more complete picture of the possibilities. From 2010 to 2020, labor force projection #2 shows an 2.1% decrease (32 persons) in labor force. This decrease coincides with the decrease in population as presented between 2010 and 2020 in population projection #1. The labor force is projected to further decline in 2030 by another 32 persons, continuing to follow the declining trend in population.

IO 24: Labor Force Projection #2

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Source: US Census Data and Wisconsin DOA Population Projections

Labor Force Projection #3

Labor force projection #3, based on Population Projection #3, shown in IO 25, illustrates a high range increase in labor force. Using a 74% involvement rate of the population in the labor force (the historic low percentage reported in 1990) , it shows that from 2000 to 2010, the labor force will contract by approximately 1% (13 people) from 1,557 to 1,544 total persons. It also predicts that from 2010 to 2030 the labor force expands by almost 12% (184 people) from 1,544 to 1,728 total persons.

IO 25: Labor Force Projection #3

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Source: US Census Data and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration population projections

It should be pointed out that this set of projections is only based on size change in labor force and the percentage of population in the workforce. The real labor force change in the City of Durand will depend on the age structure of the labor force, immigration and emmigration. As a result, Projections #1 through #3 may vary greatly from the actual labor force statistics in the future. Another “best guess” can be made as to the possible future age group distribution in the City of Durand based on data for age groups trends from 2010 to 2030 for Pepin County and the State of Wisconsin. Although this specific information is not readily available for the City, we can make some assumptions and generalizations based on what we expect the County and State populations to do.

IO 26 and IO 27 show the age group data forecast for the Pepin County labor force. In looking at IO 26, notable trends include the age group (55 and over) increasing in percentage while the age group (16 through 34) is expected to decrease at even larger pace. IO 27 demonstrates the relationship of the age groups between 2010 and 2030.

IO 26: Labor Force Change by Age Group in Pepin County, 2010-2030

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IO 27: Pepin County Labor Froce Trends by Age 2010-2030

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IO-26 also demonstrates general workforce trends. Overall, the workforce in Pepin County is expected to increase by 15% or 925 people from 2010 to 2030. In comparing this number to the overall projected population increase of 1089 people, it is evident that about 85% of the new population will be part of the labor force. This is a much higher participation rate than that recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2000 for all workforce population in Pepin County estimated at 77%. However, when compared to the State of Wisconsin labor force projections by age group (shown in IO-28), it is evident that Pepin County’s, and therefore the City of Durand’s, population is aging at a faster rate than the State of Wisconsin. If one were to compare the age group 16-34 from IO 26 and IO 28, it is also apparent there would be a lower percentage of individuals entering the workforce for Pepin County. The similiarities in this data would seem to suggest that the City of Durand’s labor force growth would be comparable to that of Pepin County, which suggests a growth of roughly 15% between 2010 and 2030. This is very similar to the estimates provided in Labor Force Projection #3 above. For the purposes of this planning process, Projection #1 seems more likely and will be the one utilized later in this document. Finally, it should be noted that the development or loss of one large industry to Durand could severely skew these figures in the future.

IO-28: Forecasted Labor Force by Age Group in Wisconsin, 2010-2030

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Source: US Census Data

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