European Interest Rates

Market Briefing: European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 17, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

European Government Bond Yields

1-12

June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 1.

18

18

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS

16

(percent, monthly)

16

D NIRP QEE

14

E

QE

14

12

Brexit

12

10

Yields

10

France (1.52)

8

Germany (1.10)

8

Italy (2.99)

6

Spain (0.47)

6

4

4

May

2

2

May

0

0



-2

-2

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

10

10

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS

9

(percent, daily)

9

8

Brexit

8

France (2.21)

7

Germany (1.67)

7

Italy (3.69)

6

Spain (2.79)

6

5

5

4

D

NIRP QE QEE

4

3

6/17

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1



-2

-2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 3.

9.0

9.0

8.5 EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS

8.5

8.0

(percent, daily)

8.0

7.5

QEE

7.5

7.0

Spain (2.79)

NIRP QE

Brexit

7.0

6.5

Italy (3.69)

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

3.5

D

3.0

2.5

4.0 6/17

3.5

3.0 6/17

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014). QE (1/22/15). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16). Source: Financial Times.

Figure 4.

50

50

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS

45

(percent, daily)

45

40

D

NIRP QE QEE

40

35

35

30

Yields

30

Greece (4.0)

Ireland (2.3)

25

Portugal (2.7)

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

6/17

5



0

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Financial Times.

Page 2 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 5.

400

400

EUROZUOS NE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS Election Day (basis points, daily)

Italian BrexRiteferendum

300

Yield Spreads

with Germany

Italy (202.0)

300

UK (82.0)

France (54.0)

200

200

100

0

2016

2017

Source: Haver Analytics.

2018

2019

2020

2021

6/17

2022

2023

100

0 2024

Figure 6.

700

700

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SPREAD

(basis points, daily)

600

600

500

500



400

Spain-Germany (112.00)

400

300

300

200

200

100

6/17

100

0

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 7.

5.0

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS

4.5

(percent, daily)

4.0

3.5

3.0

5.0

4.5

France (2.20)

Germany (1.65)

4.0

Japan (0.23)

Sweden (1.92) UK (2.50)

6/16

3.5

US (3.28)

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

6/17

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5

.0

.0

-.5

-.5

-1.0

-1.0



-1.5

-1.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 8.

6.5

6.5

UNITED KINGDOM: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD

6.0 (percent, daily)

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

6/17

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 9.

6

6

FRANCE: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD

(percent, daily)

5

5

4

4

3

3

6/17

2

2

1

1

0

0



-1

-1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 10.

6

GERMANY: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD (percent, daily)

5

6 Latest (1.67)

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

6/17

1

1

0

0



-1

-1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



European Government Bond Yields

Figure 11.

45

45

GREECE: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD

(percent, daily)

40

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

6/17

5



0

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 12.

16

16

IRELAND: 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD

(percent, daily)

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

6/17

2

0

0



-2

-2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / June 17, 2022 / European Interest Rates

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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