PDF Returns Over 20-year Periods Vary Significantly; Affected by ...
[Pages:1]Change In P/E Ratio (Beginning To End)
Rolling 20 Yr Change In S&P 500 (annual rate)
RETURNS OVER 20-YEAR PERIODS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY; AFFECTED BY THE STARTING P/E RATIO
20-YEAR ROLLING STOCK MARKET RETURN (blue/left) & CHANGE IN P/E RATIO (red/right): 1919 - 2021
20%
80
70
15%
60
50
10%
40
30
5%
20
10
0%
-
(10)
-5%
(20)
1919 1926 1933 1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017
20-Yr Annualized Return (S&P 500 Total Return, Including Dividends)
Change In P/E10 (Beginning to End)
P/E10 At The Start Of The 20 Years
20 Yr Stock Market Based Upon Starting P/E Ratio (1900-2021) 45
20 Year Periods Ending 1919 - 2021 (103 periods)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10
5 0%
5%
10%
15%
Annual Total Return Over 20 Years
20%
DECILE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL RETURNS
BY DECILE RANGE
FROM
TO
3.1% 6.4% 7.1% 7.3% 8.0% 8.9% 10.9% 11.5% 13.0% 14.0%
6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 8.8% 10.8% 11.4% 12.8% 14.0% 17.1%
S&P500
DECILE
AVG
5.1% 6.8% 7.2% 7.6% 8.4% 9.9% 11.2% 12.1% 13.7% 15.4%
AVG
BEGIN
P/E
23.6 18.2 13.8 16.0 19.4 16.7 14.8 11.9 11.9 10.1
AVG
END
P/E
13.2 11.7 13.8 12.8 19.3 19.2 18.5 19.1 21.6 28.6
Note: P/E ratio based upon average 10-year real EPS (P/E10)
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