RETURNS OVER 20-YEAR PERIODS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY; …
Change In P/E Ratio (Beginning To End)
Rolling 20 Yr Change In S&P 500 (annual rate)
RETURNS OVER 20-YEAR PERIODS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY; AFFECTED BY THE STARTING P/E RATIO
20-YEAR ROLLING STOCK MARKET RETURN (blue/left) & CHANGE IN P/E RATIO (red/right): 1919 - 2019
20%
80
70
15%
60
50
10%
40
30
5%
20
10
0%
-
(10)
-5%
(20)
1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
20-Yr Annualized Return (S&P 500 Total Return, Including Dividends)
Change In P/E10 (Beginning to End)
P/E10 At The Start Of The 20 Years
20 Yr Stock Market Based Upon Starting P/E Ratio (1900-2019) 45
20 Year Periods Ending 1919 - 2019 (101 periods)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10
5 0%
5%
10%
15%
Annual Total Return Over 20 Years
20%
DECILE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL RETURNS
BY DECILE RANGE
FROM
TO
3.1% 6.6% 7.2% 7.3% 8.0% 9.3% 10.9% 11.5% 13.0% 14.0%
6.4% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 8.9% 10.8% 11.4% 12.8% 14.0% 17.1%
S&P500
DECILE
AVG
5.1% 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 8.5% 9.9% 11.2% 12.1% 13.7% 15.4%
AVG
BEGIN
P/E
20.7 17.7 14.9 15.8 17.3 17.5 14.8 11.9 11.9 10.1
AVG
END
P/E
11.4 11.7 13.5 13.3 17.7 19.3 18.5 19.1 21.6 28.6
Note: P/E ratio based upon average 10-year real EPS (P/E10)
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