THE CRISIS IN TIMOR- LESTE - Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific ...

THE CRISIS IN TIMORLESTE:

CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND OPTIONS FOR CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION November 2006

Disclaimer The authors' views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

A REPORT FOR USAID TIMOR-LESTE BASED ON A JOINT USAID-AUSAID

CONFLICT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

ASSESSMENT TEAM MEMBERS: CYNTHIA BRADY, USAID/DCHA/CMM, TEAM LEADER LAURENTINA "MICA" BARRETO SOARES, CONSULTANT

ANT?NIO DA CONCEI??O, AUSAID TIMOR-LESTE STEVE DARVILL, AUSAID

SIDONIO FREITAS, CONSULTANT ANA GUTERRES, USAID TIMOR-LESTE DAVID G. TIMBERMAN, CONSULTANT

GAVIN WILLIAMS, AUSAID

REPORT FOR USAID TIMOR-LESTE WRITTEN BY: CYNTHIA BRADY, USAID/DCHA/CMM AND DAVID G. TIMBERMAN, CONSULTANT

NOVEMBER 12, 2006

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... ii Glossary of Terms.............................................................................................................iii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 5 II. Developments Since The 2004 CVA: What has Changed......................................... 6 III. The Current Crisis: Causes and Consequences......................................................... 7

A. Root Causes ............................................................................................................ 8 B. Proximate Causes ................................................................................................. 12 C. Conflict Triggers .................................................................................................... 13 D. Consequences to Date of the Current Crisis ......................................................... 14 IV. Looking Ahead: Causes of Future Conflict ............................................................... 17 A. Seven Drivers of Future Conflict............................................................................ 17 B. Windows of Vulnerability: Future Triggers ............................................................. 22 C. Conflict Mitigation and Peace Capacities ............................................................... 23 V. Program Findings and Recommendations ................................................................ 24 A. General Findings ................................................................................................... 24 B. Strategic and Programmatic Issues....................................................................... 25 C. Some Key Assumptions ........................................................................................ 26 D. Possible Modifications to Existing USAID Programs ............................................ 26 E. Recommendations for New Programs and Activities............................................. 31 F. Other Observations and Recommendations.......................................................... 38

Annexes .......................................................................................................................... 39 1. Key Conclusions and recommendations from the Conflict Vulnerability Assessment Conducted in 2004 .......................................................................................................... 39 2. Partial Inventory of Conflict Resolution and Peace-building Activities ........................ 42 3. Key operating principles to help guide development assistance In timor-leste........... 43 4. Illustrative Programmatic Responses to Address The Key Drivers of Conflict in TimorLeste ...............................................................................................................................45 5. List of People Interviewed ........................................................................................... 51 6. Biblography ................................................................................................................. 57

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors of this report wish to thank their Australian and Timorese team members for their enthusiasm, insights and good humor over the course of the assessment. We also greatly appreciate the support and encouragement provided to the team by Flynn Fuller, Director, USAID Timor-Leste and Nicole Seibel, Democracy and Governance Program Manager, USAID Timor-Leste. Finally, we would like to express our gratitude to Ana Guterres for contributing not only her keen insights but for managing our very complex schedule and ensuring that the team always had everything it needed to do its job. On behalf of all team members, we wish to express our appreciation to USAID TimorLeste and AusAID Timor-Leste for giving us this opportunity to work together and with the Missions on such a challenging and interesting assignment.

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GLOSSARY OF TERMS

ASDT ASEAN AusAID CAVR

Chefe de Suco CMM CPD-RDTL

CSO CVA DCHA DG FALINTIL

F-FDTL

FOKUPERS FRETILIN

GoTL IDPs Lafaek Loromonu

Lorosae

National Dialogue

NGO OIG PM PNTL Provedor

PSD RENETIL

RDTL RTTL Simu Malu

Timorese Social Democrat Association Association of South East Asian Nations Australian Agency for International Development Comiss?o de Acolhimento, Verdade e Reconcilia??o (Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation) Chief of Village Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation Conselho Popular pela Defesa de Rep?blica Democr?tica de Timor-Leste (Popular Council for the Defense of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste)

Civil Society Organization Conflict Vulnerability Assessment

Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance

Democracy and Governance For?as Armadas de Liberta??o N?cional de Timor-Leste (National Liberation Forces of Timor-Leste) FALINTIL-For?as de Defesa de Timor-Leste (FALINTIL-TimorLeste Defense Force)

The East Timor Women's Communication Forum Frente Revolution?ria do Timor-Leste Independente (Revolutionary Front of Independent Timor-Leste)

Government of Timor-Leste Internally Displaced Persons Crocodile, "Lafaek" is a children's magazine produced by CARE West, typically used to refer to people from western part of TimorLeste East, typically used to refer to people from the eastern part of Timor-Leste Initiatives under the Office of the President to facilitate national dialogue among key political leaders and social groups Non-governmental Organization Office of the Inspector General Prime Minister Pol?cia Nacional de Timor-Leste (National Police of Timor-Leste) Ombudsman (Timor-Leste has an office of the Provedor for Human Rights and Justice, which is includes human rights, anticorruption and good governance) Social Democratic Party Resist?ncia Nacional dos Estudantes de Timor-Leste (The National resistance of Timorese Students)

Rep?blica Democr?tica de Timor-Leste Radio Television Timor-Leste Mutual acceptance, also the name of a community reconciliation program organized by the Ministry of Labour and Community Reinsertion and the Ministry of State Administration

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