United States Fuel Resiliency - Department of Energy

United States Fuel Resiliency

Volume II

U.S. Fuels Supply Infrastructure

Vulnerability to Natural and

Physical Threats

FINAL REPORT

Prepared for:

Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis

U.S. Department of Energy

September 2014

INTEK Inc.

.

Disclaimer

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States

Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees

or contractors, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility

for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, herein. The views and opinions of

authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or

any agency thereof.

Data related to fuels supply and movements and descriptions of infrastructure were current at the time

this report was prepared. The global and U.S. oil, natural gas, and refined products markets, supply

patterns, and infrastructure are changing rapidly.

Acknowledgements

This work was performed for the US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis,

as part of the AOC Petroleum Support Services, LLC (AOC-PSS) contract number DE-FE-0000175. The

work was performed by INTEK Inc., under subcontract to AOC-PSS.

Mr. Hitesh Mohan of INTEK Inc. served as the Project Director. Special recognition is also due to those

who directly performed the work including: Mr. Peter M. Crawford (the Project Manager), Mr. Marshall

Carolus, Mr. Christopher Dean, Mr. Steven Shapiro, and Mr. Matthew Gilstrap.

Table of Contents

I.

A.

B.

C.

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................1

The Nation¡¯s Vulnerability Profile ..................................................................................................... 1

Purpose of Study ............................................................................................................................... 2

Approach ........................................................................................................................................... 3

A.

B.

C.

Natural Disasters and Energy Infrastructure .............................................................................. 13

Cascading Disaster Effects .............................................................................................................. 14

Independent Natural Disasters ....................................................................................................... 14

Other Weather Effects .................................................................................................................... 15

III.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

H.

I.

J.

Hurricanes ............................................................................................................................ 17

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 17

Hurricanes in the United States ...................................................................................................... 18

Types of Hurricane Impacts on Fuels TS&D Infrastructure ............................................................. 19

Threats to the Oil and Gas TS&D..................................................................................................... 20

Historical Gulf Coast Hurricanes ..................................................................................................... 21

Historical East Coast Hurricanes ..................................................................................................... 28

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 35

Probability and Severity .................................................................................................................. 36

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 37

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 40

IV.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

H.

I.

Earthquakes.......................................................................................................................... 47

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 47

Measuring an Earthquake ............................................................................................................... 48

Earthquakes in the United States ................................................................................................... 49

Types of Damage............................................................................................................................. 50

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D Infrastructure ................................................................................... 51

Historical Events.............................................................................................................................. 51

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 55

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 56

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 59

II.

V.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

Tsunamis .................................................................................................................................. 61

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 61

Types of Damages ........................................................................................................................... 62

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D ........................................................................................................... 62

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 64

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 65

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 67

United States Fuel Resiliency: Volume II ¨C Vulnerability Assessment

iii

VI.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

Tornadoes ............................................................................................................................ 69

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 69

Measuring a Tornado ...................................................................................................................... 71

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D Infrastructure ................................................................................... 72

Historical Events.............................................................................................................................. 73

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 74

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 76

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 77

VII.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

H.

Heat Waves and Drought ...................................................................................................... 81

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 81

Measuring Droughts ....................................................................................................................... 81

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D Infrastructure ................................................................................... 82

Historical Events.............................................................................................................................. 84

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 86

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 88

Rising Temperatures ....................................................................................................................... 88

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 89

VIII.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

Derechos .............................................................................................................................. 91

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 91

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D Infrastructure ................................................................................... 92

Historical Events.............................................................................................................................. 93

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 95

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................... 96

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................... 97

IX.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

Wildfires ............................................................................................................................... 99

Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 99

Measuring Fire Risk ....................................................................................................................... 100

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D ......................................................................................................... 101

Historical Events............................................................................................................................ 101

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ................................................................................................... 103

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................. 105

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................. 107

X.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

Flooding ................................................................................................................................. 109

Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 109

Measuring and Monitoring a Flood .............................................................................................. 109

Flooding in the United States........................................................................................................ 110

Types of Damages ......................................................................................................................... 111

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D ......................................................................................................... 111

Historical Events............................................................................................................................ 112

United States Fuel Resiliency: Volume II ¨C Vulnerability Assessment

iv

G.

H.

I.

Likely Impact on TS&D Infrastructure ........................................................................................... 113

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................. 114

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................. 116

XI.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

Severe Winter Weather....................................................................................................... 117

Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 117

Threats to Oil and Gas TS&D Infrastructure ................................................................................. 118

Historical Events............................................................................................................................ 119

Likely Impacts on Infrastructure ................................................................................................... 121

Hazard Areas ................................................................................................................................. 123

Measures Taken by Industry to Address Vulnerability ................................................................. 124

XII.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

Regional Vulnerability Characteristics .................................................................................. 125

PADD I (East Coast) ....................................................................................................................... 125

PADD II (Midwest) ......................................................................................................................... 126

PADD III (Gulf Coast) ..................................................................................................................... 127

PADD IV (Rockies).......................................................................................................................... 128

PADD V (West Coast) .................................................................................................................... 128

XIII.

A.

B.

C.

Physical Vulnerability of TS&D Infrastructure....................................................................... 131

Characterization of Physical and Human Threats ......................................................................... 131

Characterization of Infrastructure Vulnerability ........................................................................... 131

Natural Gas Supply Vulnerabilities................................................................................................ 138

XIV.

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

Fuel-Based Chokepoints ...................................................................................................... 141

Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 141

Crude Oil Chokepoints .................................................................................................................. 141

Petroleum Product Chokepoints ................................................................................................... 146

Natural Gas Chokepoints .............................................................................................................. 149

Propane Chokepoints .................................................................................................................... 150

XV.

A.

B.

Interdependencies .............................................................................................................. 153

Intra-System Interdependencies................................................................................................... 154

Natural Gas Infrastructure Interdependencies ............................................................................. 156

United States Fuel Resiliency: Volume II ¨C Vulnerability Assessment

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