Updated Funding Need, Program-Change Scenarios, and other ...

Updated Funding Need, Program-Change Scenarios, and other Planning Considerations

CVRP Work Group #3 (4 Apr. 2019, Sacramento CA) Brett Williams, PhD ? Senior Principal Advisor, EV Programs, CSE John Anderson ? Research Analyst, CSE

With thanks to Amy Lastuka and others at CSE and CARB

Outline

I. Updated FY 201920 Funding Need (including FY 18?19 shortfall) II. Updated Three-Year Funding Need (SB 1275) III. Updated Funding Need for 5M EVs ('18?'19 Budget Act)

? Context: Private-investment estimates

IV. Program-Change Scenario Estimates V. Discussion: Funding Needs and Program Changes

Appendix

? Caveats, additional updates, (and previous versions available in 22 March 2019 CVRP Work Group handout

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Updated FY 201920 Funding Need

Including FY 2018?19 Shortfall

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Method "...all models are wrong; some are useful" ?George Box

Extrapolate trends in EV sales volume

Calculate CVRP demand as a percentage of the market

Assign a percentage of

CVRP to Increased Rebates /

adjust

Estimate funding required

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Extrapolations

Monthly sales data

? Source: new-vehicle registrations (IHS), March 2010 ? December 2018 ? Vehicle categories created:

1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) 2. Range-extended battery electric vehicle (BEVx)* 3. Tesla Model 3: "Medium," "low" scenarios 4. Tesla Model S 5. Tesla Model X 6. Chevrolet Bolt 7. Other battery electric vehicles (BEV) 8. Fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV)

Rebate data

? Source: CVRP rebates (public dashboard), March 2010 ? November 2018

? "Current program" design (after lowering of income cap) = Nov. 2016 ? Nov. 2018

? Vehicle Categories created: 9. Zero-emission motorcycle (ZEM) 10. Tesla Model 3: "High" scenario

* Receives a BEV rebate. See for more detail.

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To date = BMW i3 REx.

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