ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

[Pages:32]ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 July 2022

Outline

Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) Pacific SST Outlook U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks Summary

Summary

ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni?a Advisory La Ni?a is present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Ni?a. La Ni?a is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Ni?a decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in JulySeptember 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (oC)

Since mid-May, below-average SSTs have weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Recently, negative SST anomalies in the central Pacific have strengthened.

Ni?o Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Ni?o 4 Ni?o 3.4

Ni?o 3 Ni?o 1+2

-1.0?C -0.6?C -0.3?C -1.2?C

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks

In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, but had returned to near-average in the east-central Pacific.

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Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average across much of the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average near Indonesia, across much of the Atlantic Ocean, and in the central Indian Ocean.

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Weekly SST Departures during the Last Four Weeks

During the last 4 weeks, negative SST anomalies have weakened in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

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