Antecedent Considerations

[Pages:14]Antecedent Considerations

Weather Patterns (seasonal) Temperature Anomalies Precipitation and Drought Comparisons Fuel Moisture and Fuel Loading Large Fire History

Prediction Considerations

Recent Climate Trends Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Predictions (El Nino, La Nina, MJO) Short Term and Long-Term Model Forecast Charts Climate Prediction Center Forecasts and Predictive Services Temperature/Precipitation Anomaly Forecasts Final Thoughts and Considerations for Winter into Spring 2022.

Outlook Summary

Significant wildland fire potential across most of the Rocky Mountain Area (RMA) is expected to be normal from February through May 2022. The exception will be for portions of eastern Colorado and Kansas where above normal significant wildland fire potential is expected due to the persistence of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation during the outlook period that will keep fuels receptive and promote rapid spread during wind events.

Last 90 days

Last 60 days

An above normal temperature signature lingered across most of the RMA especially east of the Front Range and across the Plains in November and December. Colder, seasonal temperatures finally arrived and overspread the entire area during the latter half of December into January. Periods of colder than normal temperatures are expected to occur across north portions of the RMA into March 2022.

Last 30 days

Precipitation was lacking across most of the RMA in November, especially across Kansas, Nebraska and western portions of South Dakota.

In December, precipitation events expanded across northwest Colorado into eastern Wyoming, while the greatest deficits were still observed across Kansas, Nebraska and most of South Dakota.

November (90 days)

December (60 days)

January (30 days)

In the past 30 days, below normal precipitation anomalies persisted across the High Plains, with very dry conditions in place across all of South Dakota, Nebraska and portions of eastern Kansas. Above average precipitation anomalies were focused across northwest and southeast Wyoming, expanding across potions of north-central and southeast Colorado into western Kansas.

December 30

January 31

Snowfall continues to struggle across the RMA since the end of December. West-facing slopes have reaped better snowpack amounts with near to above median values, while deficits continue to be observed in areas mainly east of the Divide, especially with snowmelt that occurs across the foothills and lower elevations during warmer temperature episodes.

The Drought Monitor continues to portray Severe to Extreme drought across western portions of the Rocky Mountain Area since the beginning of November 2021. The drought has intensified to extreme across eastern Colorado, and moderate drought has expanded with abnormally dry conditions across most of Kansas and Nebraska.

November ? January 2022

Soil moisture anomalies since December show continued drying (loss in soil moisture) across the Central and Southern Plains of the United States, especially across Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and eastern Colorado.

CPC/IRI objective outlook calls for a return to ENSO neutral conditions by Early Spring.

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