Elections Uniqueness Update: UMW



Elections Uniqueness Update: UMWAff: Can’t Predict—2ACNo predictions—election run-up will be chaoticCilizza 9—11 [Chris Cillizza 9/11, CNN Editor-At-Large, “Analysis: Is Donald Trump starting to make an electoral comeback?,” CNN, 9-11-2020, ]That question is difficult to answer with any sort of certainty for a few reasons -- most notably that we are still 53 days from the election. And we are still in the grips of a pandemic that is projected to kill more than 400,000 Americans by the end of the year. And in the middle of a national conversation about race that has sparked protests -- peaceful and violent -- across the country. And with the least predictable or traditional person in the White House in modern American history.In short: The last two-ish months before an election are always chaotic and somewhat unpredictable. That goes quadruple for this election.Trump Wins Now: Voter RegistrationTrump wins now—voter registrationWasserman 10/1 – (House editor for The Cook Political Report and an NBC News contributor) David Wasserman, 10/1/20, NBC News, “Trump is winning the voter registration battle against Biden in key states” doa: 10/2/20 url: the last few weeks, Joe Biden has led President Donald Trump by a fairly consistent 8-point average in national polls and has maintained leads in more than enough battleground states to win the Electoral College, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump won in 2016.But there are signs Trump's ground operation is paying off when it comes to registering new voters in key states, an advantage that could become important if the race tightens before Nov. 3.The Trump campaign has boasted that it knocks on more than a million doors a week, a claim that's impossible to independently verify. In sharp contrast, the Biden campaign had ditched a ground game for virtual outreach, citing Covid-19 concerns — even though academic research has routinely concluded door-to-door canvassing is the "most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization." Only just now has the Biden campaign decided to restart its in-person voter contacts in some battleground states.As deadlines approach, new data from the past few months shows Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016, even if new registrations have lagged 2016 rates across the board. It's a sign that in a pandemic, Democrats are struggling to seize traditional opportunities to pad their margins, such as the return of students to college campuses.Of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — permit voters to register by party. In all four states, voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP than four years ago.Biden Wins: Approval Rating ProveEconomy, COVID, approval ratings Brenan 10/1/20 [Megan Brenan is a Research Consultant at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects. She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for , including economic, political and business matters. "At 46%, Trump's Pre-Debate Job Approval Highest Since May." ]While Trump's approval rating has improved, it remains below the 50% threshold for an incumbent that has historically been associated with presidents winning a second term. In addition, Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going is near its historical low point, and while economic confidence has recovered from its record drop in the spring, it remains negative. Despite these strong indicators that suggest Trump's reelection is imperiled, more Americans still believed before the debate that he is the favorite to win.Biden Wins: COVIDCOVID won’t help – it makes him look unhealthy and stupid Mathis-Lilley 10/2/20 [Ben Mathis-Lilley is a Slate senior writer. "Getting COVID-19 Is Probably Not a Brilliant Ploy for Sympathy That Will Boost Trump’s Reelection Chances." ]Consider this: Roughly 57 percent of Americans believed, as of Friday morning, that Trump has handled the coronavirus pandemic badly, while only 40 percent believed he has handled it well. About the same ratio of people believe Biden would be better suited to manage the crisis than Trump. The “vast majority” of Americans believe it’s important to wear masks; according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, 40 percent of Republicans would support a nationwide mask mandate. To believe the president will benefit from having gotten COVID while ignoring health protocols, one would have to think it will make him more appealing to voters who have been (at the least) badly inconvenienced by the virus in their own lives, blame the president for its continued spread, believed until Friday morning that Joe Biden would be better at managing it than he is, and say it’s important to wear masks and observe social distancing guidelines. And that’s before you consider that Melania Trump, White House aide Hope Hicks, and Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel have already apparently tested positive as well, raising the possibility of a week-plus of news cycles about the White House being unable to control the disease even within the White House.Finally, contrary to panicked claims on Twitter, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not surge in popularity when he tested positive in March; Johnson enjoyed only a slight bump in his favorability, which was already high due to the same “rally around the flag” effect that temporarily boosted Trump, and has since fallen to a level even lower than the American president’s.Biden Wins: EconomyBiden wins – economy Mullaney 10/2/20 [Tim, Independent. "Forget Trump’s Covid diagnosis. The election is now over for a very different reason." ]But that said, the facts of the economy are increasingly looking pretty good for the next president, even if — or perhaps because — some of this week’s headlines contain notes of panic.Think of it as a kind of inverse Goldilocks Economy — just cold enough to get panicked Republicans to finally do something about short-term stimulus as the economy is showing signs of a new slowdown, as the comeback from the midyear collapse peters out (specifically, a weak report on personal income growth, persistently high unemployment insurance claims, and big layoff announcements at Walt Disney Co. and both United and American Airlines), and still cold enough to make Trump lose. After all, that 661,000 job gain is less than half of August’s, and below expectations of 859,000 jobs. With another 4.5 million people not counted as jobless because the Labor Department says they are not looking for work due to Covid-19, it’s a double-digit unemployment economy. But it’s also an economy warm enough to respond nicely to stimulus, both the short-term corona fix that seems increasingly likely to happen and the big one a President Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress would do next year — so the next economic expansion can be as robust as we wish the slow snap back from the 2008 financial crisis had been. In other words, the jobs report isn’t what we want — but it’s good enough that we can see the destination from here.Biden Wins: Ohio ProvesNo predictions make sense after COVID – OR he loses Russonello 10/2/20 [Giovanni Russonello, NYT. "‘If He Doesn’t Win Ohio, It’s Over’: Trump Slips in the Heartland." ]No Republican has ever won a presidential election without taking Ohio, and Donald J. Trump carried it with ease in 2016, performing strongly with white voters in almost every demographic.If he doesn’t capture the state in November, it’s hard to see him winning the election — but the polling picture looks more worrisome for him this time around.In a Quinnipiac University poll released last week, Joe Biden had a statistically insignificant edge of one percentage point on the president, while a survey released the same day by Fox News put Mr. Biden ahead by five points.After the president said early Friday morning that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, the future of the race was thrown even further into doubt. But Ohio’s bellwether status remains a dependable fact of political life.“If he doesn’t win Ohio, it’s over,” David Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Akron, said in an interview. He noted that Mr. Trump had traveled to Ohio several times last month, holding rallies in white, working-class areas in a tacit acknowledgment of how badly he’ll need the state in order to eke out an Electoral College victory.“If you think about it, why the heck is he spending any time in Ohio in September, in a state that he won by over eight points?” Dr. Cohen said. “The only answer is that he and his campaign know that he’s in trouble.”Four years ago, Mr. Trump built a particularly balanced coalition among Ohio’s white voters, winning across education levels. But his support in the state has waned over the past four years, particularly in the suburbs.30 Years After Reunification, Old German-German Border Is a Green OasisContinue reading the main storyIn the process, white voters in Ohio have become about as heavily divided along educational lines as they are in the rest of the country. It is evidence, from a conservative Midwestern stronghold where most state offices are consistently held by Republicans, that Mr. Trump’s divisive brand of politics has been more effective at sifting voters out of his coalition than at bringing them in.In 2016, exit polls showed that Hillary Clinton actually did better among non-college white voters in Ohio than she did nationally, reflective of a longstanding blue-collar Democratic tradition in parts of the state. Among white voters with college degrees, meanwhile, the opposite was true: She underperformed especially badly in Ohio, where staunch white-collar conservatism is a long-held custom.The result is that Mr. Trump did almost as well among white people with a degree in Ohio — who deeply distrusted Mrs. Clinton — as he did among those without a college education.But this has all changed. Averaging together the recent Fox and Quinnipiac polls, Mr. Trump was running 12 points behind his 2016 totals among white voters with degrees. ................
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