How does the BuildForce Canada Labour Market Information ...



Alberta —?Key Messages How does the BuildForce Canada Labour Market Information (LMI) system work?The BuildForce Canada LMI system uses a scenario-based forecasting system to assess future construction labour requirements in the heavy industrial, residential, and non-residential construction markets. The system tracks 34 trades and occupations, and validates the scenario with industry stakeholders, including owners, contractors and labour groups. The information is then distilled into labour market condition rankings to help industry employers with the management of their respective human resources. In cases where the workforce samples are too small, those trades are suppressed due to limited statistical reliability. For Alberta, rankings are reported for 24 residential and 32 non-residential trades and occupations.2021-2023Total residential employment:72362to72436or74or0%???New Home-3%?Renovation4%?Maintenance4%???Total non-residential employment:100073to99217or-857or-1%?Oil and gas (new and sustaining cap.) *20%?Engineering-15%?ICI4%?Maintenance0%???Total construction industry:172436to171653or-783or0%?* BuildForce also tracks separately investments in new and sustaining capital in the province’s oil and gas industry. Oil and gas related construction reached a low of 15,845 workers in 2020 and is projected to increase to 19,059 by 2023, a 20% increase in overall oil and gas related construction employment. 2023-2030Total residential employment:72436to75384or 2948or4%???New Home4%?Renovation4%?Maintenance7%???Total non-residential employment:99217to116161or 16944or17%?Oil and gas (new and sustaining cap.) *41%?Engineering8%?ICI20%?Maintenance6%???Total construction industry:173062to191545or18483or11%?* BuildForce also tracks separately investments in new and sustaining capital in the province’s oil and gas industry. Oil and gas related construction rises from 19,059 in 2023 to 26,921 by 2030, a 41% increase from 2023 levels and a 70% increase in employment from 2020 levels. These projections are based on the anticipated investment demands related to new and sustaining capital.2021-2030Over the life of the BuildForce outlook, declines in construction demands will produce corresponding declines in overall industry employment and the labour force. The BuildForce outlook for the 2021 to 2030 period estimates the following changes in industry labour markets:Summary of changes: 2020 to 2030* Totals reported are based on actual numbers and may vary slightly from the rounded totals used in the Highlight reports and press releases??Employment??Labour Force???20202030??20202030?Residential72362753848096382238?Non-residential100073116161112308126443?Total?172435191545??193271208681???Growth??Res?Non-res?Total?Employment30221608819110?Labour Force?1275?14135?15410???Hiring Needs (Number required to replace retiring workers and keep pace with growth demands)Labour force growth12751413515410?Retirements172002320040400?Hiring requirements?18475?37335?55810???Recruitment Gap (gap between retirements and new entrant recruitments)??Retirements172002320040400?New entrants144572401138468?Recruitment Gap?2743?-811?1932???Mobility (workers required from other industries/provinces to maintain balance labour markets) ?Labour force growth12751413515410?Recruitment gap2743-8111932?Mobility requirement?4020?13325?17345? ** Negative number could indicate a departure from the provincial construction labour force What is the expected OVERALL labour demand to the end of the 2021–2030 provincial forecast period?Health care, education services, pipelines, petrochemical, transit, and other infrastructure projects are expected to sustain construction employment through to 2023. Stronger but moderate growth is expected to follow, driven by an anticipated increase in oil and gas investments, as well as an up-cycle in new-housing construction. Employment is expected to reach a peak, adding 19,900 workers (+11%) between 2023 and 2026.The province’s overall construction labour force is anticipated to grow by 15,410 workers by 2030.What does the provincial NON-RESIDENTIAL labour market look like to 2030?Sharp reductions in several sectors lowered non-residential construction levels in 2020. A slight increase in activity is expected in 2021 that will produce more stable levels of employment following years of declines associated with a prolonged contraction of investment in the oil and gas sector. Pipeline developments, major public transportation projects in both Calgary and Edmonton, and a moderate rise in oil sands investment should increase engineering construction in 2021, which is then mostly sustained to 2023. Industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building activity is expected to remain subdued over the near term as current public-sector building projects wind down. Institutional investment levels are expected to decline to 2023 before picking up again later in the decade. Commercial sector activity is expected to recover later in the scenario period, and industrial investment strengthens by mid-decade in line with increased oil and gas activity and broader spin-off investment in the manufacturing sector.The non-residential labour force is anticipated to grow by 14,135 workers by 2030.What does the provincial RESIDENTIAL labour market look like to 2030?Although residential construction requirements declined in 2020 due to a drop in housing starts, the sector’s overall outlook was bolstered by a significant increase in renovation work. A modest recovery is expected to return starts to above 30,000 units by 2026. Renovation work trends up across the scenario period, driven by income growth and a rising and aging housing stock that requires increased maintenance.The residential labour force is anticipated to grow by 1,275 workers by 2030.How many construction workers are expected to retire across Alberta during the scenario period?About 40,400 workers, or 21% of the current labour force.How many young workers might replace them?An estimated 38,600 (actual number is 38,468) new entrants aged 30 or younger from the local population should be available based on historical data.How can Alberta meet its construction labour needs?Meeting current and future labour demands will require a continuation of the industry’s collaboration with government, educational institutions and industry training providers to scale up recruitment and training capacity. Worker mobility will be important, as will engaging large numbers of young people to enter the construction labour force, especially in the face of growing retirements. Increased recruitment of individuals from groups traditionally under-represented in the industry could help address future labour force needs.Under-represented Groups in the Construction Labour Force?TotalOffsiteTotal (%)OnsiteTotal (%)Employment2284005600024.5%172,40075.5%Women366002508445%115007%Indigenous People1461829245%116947%New Canadians39735?NANANANA* Percentages reported are based on actual totals, whereas numbers reported have been rounded. Reported employment totals in this table reflects total industry employment and not just direct trades and occupationsAre provinces training enough apprentices?Our analysis suggests that while there are sufficient numbers of apprentices in many trades, training in others has fallen or may present a risk of not keeping pace with projected requirements. Based on current trend information for Alberta, the following trades may be at risk of under-training: boilermakers, carpenters, glaziers, insulators, plumbers, powerline technicians, and welders.This situation is further complicated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data collected to date suggests that the pandemic imposed obstacles to the in-school delivery of training, testing and certification. These impacts may reduce the near-term numbers of new certified workers.How did you arrive at your estimate of future needs for the province?We calculated the number of journeypersons currently holding a certificate of qualification in the listed provincial trades, and other related trades. We then estimated the number of these individuals currently working in the construction industry and how many we are likely going to need in the future given the construction employment outlook and the number of workers anticipated to retire over the next 10 years. Then we applied retirement rates, and recent registration and completion trend information to determine if each of the listed trades is training at a level sufficient to maintain the current share of certificate holders in the province.Does this number take into account anticipated demand growth in the province?Yes. Construction can be a very cyclical industry.?Anticipating the demand for experienced journeypersons driven by major planned projects and avoiding cyclical mismatches between supply and demand for skilled workers is the primary objective of this approach.What is the purpose of BuildForce Canada’s Labour Market Forecasts?It’s a planning tool that can be used to plan for future labour market requirements. However, the scenario projected during the forecast period can be subject to change based on economic conditions, available projects and other factors.How does BuildForce Canada create its Labour Market Forecasts?Through consultations with provincial construction and maintenance stakeholders, examining current trends, looking at current and historical data and examining project pipelines. ................
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