Definitions and Layout of the T - TRENDS



The Transportation Revenue Estimatorand Needs Determination System (TRENDS) ModelDeveloped by the Texas Transportation Instituteand theTexas Department of TransportationJessica Castiglione, P.E.Texas Department of TransportationProject SupervisorDavid R. Ellis, Ph.D.Texas Transportation InstituteResearch ScientistThe TRENDS Model is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers and the public with a tool to forecast revenues and expenses for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) for the period 2010 through 2035. The User, through interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptions regarding statewide transportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency, inflation rates, taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast of revenues, expenditures and fund balances for each year of the analysis period.TRENDS will be updated on a monthly basis to include the latest cash forecasts and letting schedules from TxDOT. In addition, as updates regarding population forecasts, inflation rates, fuel efficiency, and other variables become available, they will be incorporated into the model.This paper will take the User through the model and its basic calculations by describing each of the tabs at the bottom of the Excel spreadsheet. Then, there will be a brief description of the calculations on each tab and a description of the “Data Input and Summary” tab where the results are presented.Table of ContentsAccessing the Model3TRENDS Model Input2.1New Capacity42.2State Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables42.3Federal Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables72.4Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax82.5Vehicle Registration Fee Variables92.6Percent of Revenue Dedicated to Transportation92.7VMT Tax Variables102.8Fuel Efficiency Variables102.9Fund 006 Allocations132.10Maintenance Variables142.11Expense Variables152.12Bond Finance Variables192.13Population Option222.14Local Options232.15Output Option26TRENDS Model Output3.1Summary of Variables Chosen for Analysis283.2Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year283.3Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph293.4Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph303.5Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2030303.6Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2035313.7Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-2030323.8Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-203532AppendicesAppendix A How Population Projections were EstimatedAppendix B Definition of Commercial and Personal Vehicles 1. ACCESSING THE MODELThe TRENDS is available on the web at . Click on the “Proceed” button to begin the analysis. The TRENDS model will take you through all of the parameters that must be considered in order to produce a result. Once you click on the “Proceed” button on the first page of the model, the following screen will appear:2. TRENDS MODEL INPUTThis chapter offers a step-by-step guide on how to interpret the questions asked in the TRENDS model. Each section in this User’s Guide is ordered according to how each section appears in the TRENDS model.2.1 New CapacityThe first question you will be asked is: “Would you like to invest additional state funds in increased transportation capacity?” (Yes or No). The default answer is “No”. If you answer “Yes”, additional questions appear. You will be asked how much additional capacity (in dollars) you would like to provide (in billions of dollars), in what year you would like the improvements to begin, and the year in which you would like the improvements to be completed. (see below)2.2 State Gasoline and Diesel Tax VariablesOnce you have entered the amount of new capacity that is desired as well as the years in which the improvements are to be done, the TRENDS Model will now ask you a series of questions regarding tax rates. Prior to beginning the analysis, the screen looks as follows:As you can see, the first question you will be asked relates to the state gasoline tax. The current state gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon. The TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the gasoline tax rate. The default answer is “No.” If you change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which you would like the increase to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. (see below)Once you have entered this information, you will notice that TRENDS will ask if you would like to increase the gasoline tax again. Again, the default answer is “No”. If you change answer to “Yes”, the model again asks for the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which the increase is to become effective. (see below) The next set of questions pertains to the state diesel fuel tax. This section of the model operates exactly like the gasoline tax section. As can be seen in the screen shot above, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax. Again, the default answer is “No”. If you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax, simply change the answer to “Yes”. When the answer to the question is changed to “Yes”, like in the gasoline tax section, an expanded menu becomes visible. (see below)You are then asked to enter the amount of the increase in cents per gallon and the year in which you would like the increase to become effective. You also have the option of increasing the diesel fuel tax again by entering the amount of the second increase and the fiscal year it is to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading zero first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. 2.3 Federal Gasoline and Diesel Tax VariablesThe TRENDS Model also allows you to assess the estimated impact of an increase in federal fuel taxes. This section of the model works identically to the state fuel tax section.As you can see in the screen shot below, the first question you will be asked relates to the federal gasoline tax. The current federal gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon. The TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the federal gasoline tax rate. The default answer is “No.” (see below)As in the state fuel tax section, if you change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which you would like the increase to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading zero first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1.As with the state motor fuels taxes, you also have the option to increase the federal gasoline tax a second time. The same procedure is followed for the federal diesel fuel tax.The last line of this section asks “Total federal reimbursement as a percent of federal fuel tax revenue.” This space allows you to enter the amount that will be reimbursed to you from total federal fuel tax revenue collected. The default answer is 85 percent. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. (see below) 2.4 Indexing the Motor Fuels TaxThe next section of the TRENDS Model relates to the question of indexing the motor fuels tax. There are two options for indexing the state motor fuels tax: the tax can be indexed to the state Highway Cost Index or it can be indexed to the Consumer Price Index. The default answer to both indexing options is “No”. If you wish to index the state fuel tax, simple change the default answer to “Yes”. (NOTE: Only one of the indexing options can be used. The model will not allow you to answer “Yes” to both options.) If you decide to index the state motor fuels tax, then enter the fiscal year in which you want indexing to begin. (see below)2.5 Percent Revenue dedicated to TransportationUnder provisions of the Texas Constitution, three-quarters of state motor fuel taxes are dedicated to transportation with one-quarter dedicated to public education. Approximately one percent is retained by the Comptroller of Public Accounts. The TRENDS model provides you with the option to change the percentage allocation of the increase in state motor fuel taxes you have entered. (This entry DOES NOT change the distribution of the existing 20 cent per gallon fuel tax. It only changes the allocation of the INCREASE in state motor fuels taxes.) The default answer is 74 percent.2.6 Vehicle Registration Fee VariablesThe next set of questions relates to vehicle registration fees. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase vehicle registration fees. Again, the default answer is “No”. (see below)If you would like to increase vehicle registration fees, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the option is changed, an additional set of questions appears. (see below)The TRENDS Model asks you to enter the PERCENT increase in vehicle registration fees and the fiscal year in which you want the increase to become effective. (For example, if you would like to double vehicle registration fees, enter 100 percent.) As with the fuel tax options, you have ability to increase registration fees again and set the effective data of the second increase.2.7 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) TaxThe next section of the model relates to imposing a state vehicle miles traveled tax, or VMT tax). Again, the default answer is “No”. (see below)If you would like to impose a VMT fee, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is changed to “Yes”, a new set of options appear.You are asked to enter the rate (in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on personal vehicles as well as the rate (again, in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on commercial vehicles. (See appendix for criteria used to differentiate between personal and commercial vehicles). Next, you are asked to enter the effective date of the tax. Finally, if you wish to stop collecting the state gasoline tax and/or the state diesel fuel tax you have that option by entering the last year in which the fuel tax will be collected. If you want to continue collecting the fuel tax in addition to the VMT tax, set the value to 2035. For decimal values less than one, you will need to enter a preceding zero first. (see below)2.8 Fuel Efficiency Variables Projections of fuel economy, along with projections of the future population, are key elements of projecting future revenues. In late 2006, TxDOT contracted with Cambridge Systematics to forecast future levels of fuel efficiency for personal and commercial vehicles. The Cambridge Systematics analysis included alternative assumptions regarding the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This analysis was then adjusted to account for the proportional contribution to total vehicle miles traveled of each vehicle type in Texas. Low, medium and high fuel efficiency scenarios were produced. These alternative fuel efficiency scenarios are presented below. (See appendix for criteria used in this model to differentiate between personal and commercial vehicles).The TRENDS model allows the user to enter the assumption regarding fuel efficiency for both personal and commercial vehicles to be used in calculating the amount of fuel used and, in turn, the amount of fuel tax revenues derived from the fuel that is consumed. The fuel efficiency option is selected under the heading “Fuel Efficiency Variables”. The default selection is the “Average” scenario. (see below)2.9 Fund 006 Allocations to other AgenciesSeveral allocations are made from Fund 006 (“The Highway Fund”) to other state agencies. Over the years, as the State has sought new sources of general revenue, the number of agencies who receive transfers from Fund 006 has grown. Currently, agencies who receive revenues from Fund 006 include the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Office of the Attorney General, State Health and Human Services Commission, the Texas Department of Corrections and others. These expenditures account for 13.8 percent of total outflow from Fund 006. (Click here for more information regarding Fund 6 allocation.) Therefore, this section asks if you wish to eliminate some or all of the fund 006 allocations to other state agencies. The default answer for this question is “No”. If you would like to eliminate some or all of the fund 006 allocations to other agencies, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is changed to “Yes”, a new set of options appear. (see below)You are first asked to enter the percent of fund 006 allocations to other agencies that you wish to be eliminated. Next, you are asked to enter in the year in which you want fund 006 allocations to other agencies to be eliminated. Note that model will not allow you to enter any year greater than 2035.2.10 Maintenance VariablesThis section deals with the different funding scenarios outlined by the 2030 Committee report that could exist with estimated preventative maintenance and rehabilitative needs for the current road infrastructure maintained by TxDOT. Each year, ride quality and pavement condition is measured to determine pavement scores on Texas roadways. Low levels of distress such as rutting, cracking and a good ride quality result in a high score. Pavement Condition Scores that are from 100 – 90 are categorized as ‘Very Good’; 89 – 70 are ‘Good’; 69 – 50 are ‘Fair’; 49 – 35 are ‘Poor’ and 34 and below are ‘Very Poor.’ The percentage of roads in “Good” or better condition consists of the percentage of total pavement in Texas with a pavement condition score of 70 or above.This section first asks the user whether they want to use the current TxDOT maintenance scenario. By selecting “Yes,” you are assuming that the existing 191 thousand on-system lane-miles will be funded the current budgeted levels over the course of the analysis period. This level of funding results in an estimated 20 percent or less of pavements in “Good” or better condition by 2030.Alternatively, by selecting “No,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “To the right are three alternative selections representing the percent of pavement in “Good” or better condition. Select one of the 2030 Committee pavement maintenance recommendations:” The Committee estimated that in order to achieve 80 percent “Good” better roads in Texas by 2030, $64 billion will be required to treat 204 thousand miles of roadway (191 thousand existing miles plus additional lane-miles added). For 87 percent, the Committee predicted $73 billion would be required to treat 204 thousand miles of roadway. Finally, for 90 percent, $77 billion would be needed to treat 204 thousand miles of Texas roadway by 2030. (see below) A detailed description of roadway maintenance projections can be found here.Note: The 2030 Committee recommended that in order to “preserve asset value” of the current transportation infrastructure in Texas, roads should be maintained at 90 percent “Good or Better” pavement condition.2.11 Expense VariablesThe first question in this section asks, “Use default values for category expense increases? (Currently 0 percent)” (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “Yes”. (see below)If you select “No,” an new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you for the increases in expenses that you anticipate for select TxDOT expense categories. (For a detailed summary of each of these expense categories, click here and scroll to page 3)First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 5 CMAQ (Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality) expenses from 2020-2035. This category deals with federal funds directed toward addressing attainment of air quality standards within non-attainment areas. Enter the percent increase in Category 5 expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 7 STP Metro Mobility and Maintenance expenses (2020-2035). This category addresses transportation needs by Metropolitan Planning Organizations in population regions with 200,000 or greater. These funds are allocated directly from the FHWA. Enter the percent increase in Category 7 expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 8 Federal Safety expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with federal funds directed toward installation of railroad crossing guards and other safety improvement projects. Enter the percent increase in Category 8 expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 9 Federal Enhancement expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with funding toward roadway rest areas and roadway enhancement projects. Enter the percent increase in Category 9 expenses that you anticipate here. Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 10 Congressional Earmarks TPWD expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with federal funds allocated toward enhancing state park roads, railroad grade crossing repairs, the Coordinated Border Infrastructure Program and Congressional High Priority Districts. Enter the percent increase in Category 10 expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 11 District Discretionary funding (2020-2035). This category deals with transportation projects selected at the discretion of the TxDOT district. Enter the percent increase in Category 11 expenses that you anticipate here. (see below)The next question in this sections asks, “Use default values for other expense increases? (Currently 5 percent). (Yes or No.)” The 5 percent is calculated based on the normal projected increase in inflation and the normal increase for other goods and services from 2020-2035. The default answer to this question is “Yes”. (see below)If you anticipate expenses to increase at a different rate than 5 percent per year, select No. Now, a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you for the increases in expenses that you anticipate. You will notice that the default answer for these choices is 5 percent. First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in engineering, administration, and research expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Right of Way expenses. Enter the percent increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Pavement Maintenance and Construction expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) Operations expenses between 2020 and 2035. One of TxDOT’s main responsibilities is to provide lands, easements, realignments and relocations required during construction and maintenance. (Click here to find more information about TxDOT funding of the GIWW.) Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Travel/Traffic expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in vehicle registration expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Automobile Burglary and Theft Prevention Authority Assessment (ABTPA) expenses between 2020 and 2035. This authority is intended to support statewide law enforcement through public awareness, education, and auto theft reduction initiatives. Enter the percent increase in ABTPA expenses that you anticipate here.Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in cost of other agencies funded by TxDOT between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.Finally, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in contributions from TxDOT to Comptroller and Retirement between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here. (see below)2.12 Bond Finance VariablesThe first question in this sections asks, “Do you want to issue Proposition 12 bonds? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No”. Proposition 12 bonds were authorized to give up to$5 billion in general obligation bonds (bonds supported using general revenue rather than fuel tax revenues) to be spent for transportation projects. (see below (Detailed information about Proposition 12 bonds can be found by clicking here.) If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask you the Proposition 12 amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 12 proceeds. The smallest number of years you can enter for this question is 3. Finally, the TRENDS model will ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 12 proceeds. (see below)The TRENDS model then will ask “Do you want is issue Proposition 14 Bonds? (Yes or No).” The default answer is “No.” Proposition 14 bonds can be issued by state transportation agencies to fund transportation-related projects. These bonds are short term and are secured by the state highway fund. These bonds are intended to help address short-term cash flow shortfalls for TxDOT and to accelerate transportation project financing. (see below) A detailed description about Proposition 14 bonds can be found by clicking here.If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask you the Proposition 14 bond amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 14 proceeds. The smallest number of years you can enter in this space is 3. The TRENDS model will then ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 14 proceeds. Finally, you will be asked for the year in which you expect to begin paying back Proposition 14 bonds. (see below)After you are finished filling out the responses on this page, click on “Continue” to move to the next set of questions.2.13 Population OptionThe TRENDS model presents four options for population projections from 2010 to 2030. The first option suggests that migration rates will be one-half those experienced from 1990 to 2000 in Texas. This is the most conservative option, or the “low” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2004. This choice is the default option, or the “medium” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2007. This is the “medium-high” growth scenario. The last choice suggests that population growth will be equal to what was experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. This forecast is the “high” population scenario. Click on the corresponding radio button that you wish to use. A detailed list of population projections used in this model is provided below. You may also consult the appendix chapter of this User’s Guide for a detailed explanation on how these population projections were generated. Population Growth Assumptions for TexasYear"Low" Scenario"Medium" Scenario"Med-High" Scenario"High" Scenario200020,851,82020,851,82020,851,82020,851,820200121,183,52221,229,70621,250,70621,306,644200221,519,98321,619,33121,662,15621,776,330200321,860,87622,020,13922,086,39022,260,876200422,206,34822,432,43522,523,65022,761,149200522,556,04622,856,00822,973,81023,276,607200622,907,22323,287,92023,433,85323,805,208200723,259,90423,728,51123,903,77924,347,002200823,614,49724,178,19924,383,64724,902,640200923,971,47224,637,29324,873,77325,473,249201024,330,64625,105,64225,373,94726,058,595201124,692,18125,583,27925,883,99926,659,069201225,056,04126,070,06226,403,74327,275,174201325,421,59626,565,65226,932,61927,906,493201425,788,87127,069,50927,470,11028,553,044201526,156,72327,581,16028,015,55029,213,840201626,525,34228,100,26828,568,73229,889,182201726,894,51028,626,86429,129,53030,578,869201827,264,17329,160,93629,697,95031,283,094201927,634,72529,702,82130,274,26932,002,430202028,005,74030,252,56630,858,44932,736,716202128,379,26530,812,40431,452,81533,488,495202228,755,40731,382,80532,057,76634,258,659202329,133,90531,963,80332,673,32735,047,389202429,514,71932,555,50033,299,74935,855,312202529,897,41033,158,03733,936,98636,682,200202630,281,75833,771,21034,584,91837,528,671202730,667,58434,395,21635,243,76838,395,244202831,054,39435,029,97535,913,39639,281,907202931,442,19735,675,78836,593,88040,189,388203031,830,57536,332,89237,285,48641,117,6312.14 Local Options At present, local options for funding the transportation network are limited to revenue bonds (and tolls), general obligation bonds, a portion of vehicle registration fees, plus local sales and property taxes. This section of the model allows the user to assess the impact of local fuel taxes, a local VMT fee and local vehicle registration fees if such enabling legislation allowing their use were to be adopted by the Texas Legislature. For the purpose of assessing hypothetical scenarios, the level of analysis built into the model is the Metropolitan Planning Organization. 2.14-1 Local Revenue OptionsThe first question in this section asks, “Do you want to do a local option revenue analysis? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No.” By clicking “Yes,” a new set of options appear. This section allows you to select local revenue projections for Metropolitain Planning Organizations in Texas. This will allow you to view a statement of revenue for a specific MPO that you select as well as compare multiple MPO’s in one statement. Click all the MPO’s that you would like to include in the data output here. (see below)2.14-2 Local Fuel TaxThe next set of questions relates to local fuel taxes. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to change the local fuel tax rate. The default answer is “No”.By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you increase the local gasoline tax?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local gasoline tax. (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. Follow the same process for the local diesel tax section. (see below)2.14-3 Local VMT TaxThe next set of questions relates to local vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local VMT tax. The default answer is “No”.By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local personal VMT?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local personal VMT tax. Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local commercial VMT?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. (see below)2.14-4 Local Vehicle Registration FeeThe next set of questions relates to local vehicle registration fees. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local vehicle registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local vehicle passenger fee for vehicles less than 6000 lbs.?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local passenger vehicle fee for vehicles greater than 6000 lbs.?” Follow the same process for the local truck fee and local motorcycle fee questions that follow. The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the fee increases to take effect. (see below)2.14-5 Local Fuel EfficiencyThe next set of questions relates to local fuel efficiency. This might be useful if you feel that your locality has a higher or lower number of fuel efficient vehicles relative to other areas in Texas. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local Vehicle Registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks you to select the fuel efficiency for local commercial vehicles. You are provided three options: low fuel efficiency, average fuel efficiency, and high fuel efficiency. (You may consult the fuel efficiency discussion at the end of the User’s Guide for a detailed description on fuel efficiency projections). Follow the same process for selecting the fuel efficiency assumption for local personal vehicles. (see below)2.15 Output OptionIn this section, you are given options that allow you to manipulate how you want your output to be presented. This section will ask you to check what you want to be generated in the output. Click all that apply. (see below)Finally, after you enter all your variables into the TRENDS model, you may click “Submit.” 3. TRENDS MODEL OUTPUTThis section provides an explanation of each output view generated from the TRENDS model. Depending on what you selected in the Output Option section in the model input, some of the views provided below will not appear in your final output. 3.1 “Variables I have Chosen for this Analysis” Output WindowThis page gives you a brief overview of the selections that you provided in the input section of the TRENDS model. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in the upper left-hand corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF format. (An example output is provided below) 3.2 “Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year” OutputThis view shows the Projected Revenue and Expenditures (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. Columns include the Fiscal Year, Total Revenues, Maintenance and Operating Expenditures, New Capacity Expenditures, Annual Balance of Funds, and Cumulative Balance. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in the upper left-hand corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF format. (An example output is provided below)3.3 “Graph of Revenues minus Expenses by Year” ViewThis is a graphical representation of the Annual Balance of Funds (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with the revenues on the Y Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and negative dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent budget shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below).3.4 “Graph of Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year” Output WindowThis is a graphical representation of the Cumulative Balance of Funds (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with balance of funds along the Y Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and negative dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent budget shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below)3.5 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2030” Output WindowThis view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues. Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance projection (in millions) from 2009-2030. (An example output is provided below)3.6 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2035” Output WindowThis view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues. Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance projection (in millions) from 2009-2035. (An example output is provided below)3.7 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2030” Output WindowDepending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2030. Each column provides the fiscal year in which the revenue is earned. Each row shows revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last row is a total of all revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparison of the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)3.8 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2035” Output WindowDepending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2035. The columns provide the fiscal year that the revenue is earned. Each row shows revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last column is a total of all revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparing the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)APPENDIX A – ESTIMATION OF POPULATION This model employs four alternative population projection scenarios, titled the 1.0, 0.5 and 04 scenario. The 1.0 scenario assumes that population migration rates are equal to those experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. The 0.5 Scenario assumes population migration rates one-half the rates experienced from 1990 to 2000. The 04 Scenario assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2004. The 07 Scenario assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2007. Under these alternative assumptions, the 1.0 Scenario produces the largest population, the 0.5 Scenario produces the smallest future population and the 04 Scenario produces a population that is roughly a mid-range between the 1.0 and 0.5 Scenarios. Alternative projections of future Texas population were secured from the Texas State Data Center website at the following web address: . Details of the results of the alternative population forecasts are presented below.?Low MPG Scenario?High MPG Scenario?Average MPG Scenario?PersonalCommercial?PersonalCommercial?PersonalCommercialYearVehiclesVehicles?VehiclesVehicles?VehiclesVehicles200618.36576.0057?18.36576.0057?18.36576.0057200719.07616.0183?19.08576.0192?19.08096.0188200819.80176.0322?19.84126.0357?19.82156.0340200920.54296.0476?20.65346.0570?20.59816.0523201021.30006.0647?21.56276.0864?21.43136.0755201122.06876.0882?22.53546.1338?22.30216.1110201222.41906.1089?23.13746.1749?22.77826.1419201322.77936.1311?23.75316.2203?23.26626.1757201423.15056.1548?24.42436.2706?23.78746.2127201523.53346.1802?25.16046.3264?24.34696.2533201623.92886.2075?25.97336.3885?24.95106.2980201724.33786.2368?26.87736.4579?25.60766.3474201824.76166.2684?27.89106.5356?26.32636.4020201925.20146.3026?29.03766.6230?27.11956.4628202025.65876.3395?30.34756.7216?28.00316.5306202126.13516.3796?31.86046.8334?28.99776.6065202226.63246.4230?33.63016.9605?30.13136.6918202327.15296.4704?35.73027.1059?31.44156.7882202427.69886.5220?38.26517.2732?32.98196.8976202528.27286.5784?41.38737.4667?34.83007.0225202628.87826.6401?44.96607.6704?36.92217.1553202729.51846.7079?49.10757.8851?39.31297.2965202830.19776.7825?53.95338.1117?42.07557.4471202930.92076.8648?59.69708.3513?45.30887.6080203031.69326.9559?66.61028.6049?49.15177.7804203132.51297.0548?71.27298.8669?51.89297.9608203233.37827.1608?75.54929.1370?54.46378.1489203334.28797.2734?79.32679.4153?56.80738.3443203435.24087.3921?82.49989.7020?58.87038.5471203536.23667.5164?84.97489.9975?60.60578.7570203637.27467.6460?86.674210.3021?61.97448.9740203738.35477.7806?87.974410.6159?63.16469.1982203839.47717.9199?88.854110.9392?64.16569.4296203940.64178.0638?89.698211.2724?65.17009.6681204041.84908.2122?90.545911.6157?66.19749.9140APPENDIX B – COMMERCIAL & PERSONAL VEHICLESThis model employs the use of personal and commercial vehicle fuel efficiency averages when determining fuel efficiency factors as well as vehicle registration. The amount of revenue earned from commercial and personal vehicles is fairly easy to differentiate because 98 percent of commercial vehicles burn diesel fuel and 97 percent of personal vehicles burn gasoline.According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a commercial motor vehicle is defined as:A vehicle (or combination of vehicles) with a gross weight, registered weight, or gross weight rating exceeding 26,000 pounds, that is designed or used for transportation of cargo in furtherance of any commercial enterpriseFor-hire vehicle used to transport household goods, regardless of gross weight ratingVehicle, including a bus, designed or used to transport more than 15 passengers, including the driverVehicle defined by 49 CFR §390.5, owned or controlled by someone domiciled in, or a citizen of, a country other than the United StatesAny other vehicle used in the transport of intrastate or interstate commercial goods According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a passenger motor vehicle is defined as:A passenger car used to transport persons and designed to accommodate 10 or fewer passengers, including the operator.A truck, including a pickup truck, panel delivery truck, or carryall truck, that has a manufacturer's rated carrying capacity of 2,000 pounds or less.A motor vehicle, other than a tractor, that is equipped with a rider's saddle and designed to have when propelled not more than three wheels on the ground. ................
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