Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Summary Statistics

Closed Sales Paid in Cash Median Sale Price Average Sale Price Dollar Volume Median Percent of Original List Price Received Median Time to Contract Median Time to Sale

New Pending Sales New Listings Pending Inventory Inventory (Active Listings) Months Supply of Inventory

Q2 2021 98,414 29,921 $345,000 $524,760 $51.6 Billion

Q2 2020 68,671 12,967 $277,500 $368,911 $25.3 Billion

Percent Change Year-over-Year

43.3% 130.7% 24.3% 42.2% 103.9%

100.0%

97.3%

2.8%

9 Days 53 Days 97,300 104,902 49,735 32,835

1.1

37 Days 82 Days 86,859 84,450 48,593 65,471

2.8

-75.7% -35.4% 12.0% 24.2% 2.4% -49.8% -60.7%

Closed Sales

The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter

Economists' note : Closed Sales are one of the simplest--yet most important--indicators for the residential real estate market. When comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a quarter's sales to the amount of sales in the same quarter in the previous year), rather than changes from one quarter to the next.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Closed Sales

176,767 98,414 78,353 86,543 89,562 68,671 65,602 70,044 78,759 85,017 59,505 63,491 72,843 81,301

Percent Change Year-over-Year

31.6% 43.3% 19.4% 23.6% 13.7% -19.2% 10.2% 10.3% 8.1% 4.6% -1.2% 0.1% 7.5% 1.7%

Closed Sales

120,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Cash Sales

The number of Closed Sales during the quarter in which buyers exclusively paid in cash

Economists' note : Cash Sales can be a useful indicator of the extent to which investors are participating in the market. Why? Investors are far more likely to have the funds to purchase a home available up front, whereas the typical homebuyer requires a mortgage or some other form of financing. There are, of course, many possible exceptions, so this statistic should be interpreted with care.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Cash Sales

51,877 29,921 21,956 19,794 18,420 12,967 17,141 17,236 18,118 19,968 16,086 16,491 18,219 20,337

Percent Change Year-over-Year

72.3% 130.7% 28.1% 14.8%

1.7% -35.1% 6.6% 4.5% -0.6% -1.8% -6.7% -1.5% 6.1% -3.8%

Cash Sales

35,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Cash Sales as a Percentage of Closed Sales

The percentage of Closed Sales during the quarter which were Cash Sales

Economists' note : This statistic is simply another way of viewing Cash Sales. The remaining percentages of Closed Sales (i.e. those not paid fully in cash) each quarter involved some sort of financing, such as mortgages, owner/seller financing, assumed loans, etc.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Percent of Closed Sales Paid in Cash

29.3% 30.4% 28.0% 22.9% 20.6% 18.9% 26.1% 24.6% 23.0% 23.5% 27.0% 26.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Percent Change Year-over-Year

30.8% 60.8% 7.3% -6.9% -10.4% -19.6% -3.3% -5.4% -8.0% -6.0% -5.9% -1.5% -1.2% -5.7%

Pct. of Closed Sales Paid in Cash

2017 35%

2018

2019

2020

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Median Sale Price

The median sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. 50% of sales were above and 50% of sales were below)

Economists' note : Median Sale Price is our preferred summary statistic for price activity because, unlike Average Sale Price, Median Sale Price is not sensitive to high sale prices for small numbers of homes that may not be characteristic of the market area. Keep in mind that median price trends over time are not always solely caused by changes in the general value of local real estate. Median sale price only reflects the values of the homes that sold each quarter, and the mix of the types of homes that sell can change over time.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Median Sale Price

$331,000 $345,000 $317,500 $306,000 $299,900 $277,500 $270,000 $267,000 $265,000 $265,000 $253,000 $255,000 $255,000 $256,500

Percent Change Year-over-Year

20.4% 24.3% 17.6% 14.6% 13.2% 4.7% 6.7% 4.7% 3.9% 3.3% 2.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.9%

$400K

2017

2018

2019

2020

Median Sale Price

$300K

$200K

$100K

$0K Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Average Sale Price

The average sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. total sales in dollars divided by the number of sales)

Economists' note : Usually, we prefer Median Sale Price over Average Sale Price as a summary statistic for home prices. However, Average Sale Price does have its uses--particularly when it is analyzed alongside the Median Sale Price. For one, the relative difference between the two statistics can provide some insight into the market for higher-end homes in an area.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Average Sale Price

$505,625 $524,760 $481,591 $441,645 $413,795 $368,911 $365,765 $346,204 $345,395 $353,621 $338,991 $331,702 $329,461 $351,147

Percent Change Year-over-Year

37.6% 42.2% 31.7% 27.6% 19.8% 4.3% 7.9% 4.4% 4.8% 0.7% -0.2% 5.3% 5.2% 8.0%

Average Sale Price

$600K

2017

2018

2019

2020

$500K

$400K

$300K

$200K

$100K

$0K Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Dollar Volume

The sum of the sale prices for all sales which closed during the quarter

Economists' note : Dollar Volume is simply the sum of all sale prices in a given time period, and can quickly be calculated by multiplying Closed Sales by Average Sale Price. It is a strong indicator of the health of the real estate industry in a market, and is of particular interest to real estate professionals, investors, analysts, and government agencies. Potential home sellers and home buyers, on the other hand, will likely be better served by paying attention to trends in the two components of Dollar Volume (i.e. sales and prices) individually.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Dollar Volume

$89.4 Billion $51.6 Billion $37.7 Billion $38.2 Billion $37.1 Billion $25.3 Billion $24.0 Billion $24.2 Billion $27.2 Billion $30.1 Billion $20.2 Billion $21.1 Billion $24.0 Billion $28.5 Billion

Percent Change Year-over-Year

81.2% 103.9% 57.3% 57.6% 36.2% -15.7% 19.0% 15.1% 13.4%

5.3% -1.4% 5.4% 13.1% 9.8%

Dollar Volume

$60 B

2017

2018

2019

2020

$50 B

$40 B

$30 B

$20 B

$10 B

$0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Median Percent of Original List Price Received

The median of the sale price (as a percentage of the original list price) across all properties selling during the quarter

Economists' note : The Median Percent of Original List Price Received is useful as an indicator of market recovery, since it typically rises as buyers realize that the market may be moving away from them and they need to match the selling price (or better it) in order to get a contract on the house. This is usually the last measure to indicate a market has shifted from down to up, so it is what we would call a lagging indicator.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Med. Pct. of Orig. List Price Received

100.0% 100.0% 99.0% 98.4% 97.8% 97.3% 96.8% 96.7% 96.8% 96.6% 96.0% 96.2% 96.6% 96.7%

Percent Change Year-over-Year

3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Med. Pct. of Orig. List Price Received

120%

2017

2018

2019

2020

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Median Time to Contract

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed during the quarter. The difference is that Time to Contract measures the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale. When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining numbers of cash sales.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Median Time to Contract 13 Days 9 Days 19 Days 20 Days 29 Days 37 Days 43 Days 39 Days 38 Days 41 Days 51 Days 41 Days 37 Days 35 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-67.5% -75.7% -55.8% -48.7% -23.7% -9.8% -15.7% -4.9% 2.7% 17.1% 13.3% -4.7% 0.0% -10.3%

Median Time to Contract

2017 60

2018

2019

2020

50

40

30

20

10

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Median Time to Sale

The median number of days between the listing date and closing date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Time to Sale is a measure of the length of the home selling process, calculated as the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the closing of the sale. Median Time to Sale is the amount of time the "middle" property selling this month was on the market. That is, 50% of homes selling this month took less time to sell, and 50% of homes took more time to sell. Median Time to Sale gives a more accurate picture than Average Time to Sale, which can be skewed upward by small numbers of properties taking an abnormally long time to sell.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Median Time to Sale

57 Days 53 Days 64 Days 66 Days 73 Days 82 Days 87 Days 81 Days 80 Days 84 Days 94 Days 83 Days 79 Days 79 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-32.1% -35.4% -26.4% -18.5% -8.8% -2.4% -7.4% -2.4% 1.3% 6.3% 6.8% -6.7% -3.7% -6.0%

Median Time to Sale

2017 120

2018

2019

2020

100

80

60

40

20

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

New Pending Sales

The number of listed properties that went under contract during the quarter

Economists' note : Because of the typical length of time it takes for a sale to close, economists consider Pending Sales to be a decent indicator of potential future Closed Sales. It is important to bear in mind, however, that not all Pending Sales will be closed successfully. So, the effectiveness of Pending Sales as a future indicator of Closed Sales is susceptible to changes in market conditions such as the availability of financing for homebuyers and the inventory of distressed properties for sale.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

New Pending Sales

197,259 97,300 99,959 83,424 97,109 86,859 80,508 68,260 78,287 90,593 81,361 61,024 74,972 86,455

Percent Change Year-over-Year

17.9% 12.0% 24.2% 22.2% 24.0% -4.1% -1.0% 11.9% 4.4% 4.8% 0.3% -6.9% 8.0% 0.5%

Pending Sales

120,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

New Listings

The number of properties put onto the market during the quarter

Economists' note : New Listings tend to rise in delayed response to increasing prices, so they are often seen as a lagging indicator of market health. As prices rise, potential sellers raise their estimations of value--and in the most recent cycle, rising prices have freed up many potential sellers who were previously underwater on their mortgages. Note that in our calculations, we take care to not include properties that were recently taken off the market and quickly relisted, since these are not really new listings.

Quarter

Year-to-Date Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

New Listings

196,700 104,902 91,798 81,954 92,018 84,450 94,135 79,219 88,399 96,984 98,159 78,850 89,744 99,144

Percent Change Year-over-Year

10.1% 24.2% -2.5% 3.5% 4.1% -12.9% -4.1% 0.5% -1.5% -2.2% 0.6% 5.1% 14.9% 4.8%

New Listings

120,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Inventory (Active Listings)

The number of property listings active at the end of the quarter

Economists' note : There are a number of ways to define and calculate Inventory. Our method is to simply count the number of active listings on the last day of the quarter, and hold this number to compare with the same quarter the following year. Inventory rises when New Listings are outpacing the number of listings that go off-market (regardless of whether they actually sell). Likewise, it falls when New Listings aren't keeping up with the rate at which homes are going offmarket.

Quarter

YTD (Monthly Avg) Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Inventory

33,560 32,835 31,658 45,749 53,392 65,471 83,614 81,822 85,238 90,193 97,195 93,277 90,382 88,411

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-57.4% -49.8% -62.1% -44.1% -37.4% -27.4% -14.0% -12.3% -5.7% 2.0% 9.6% 13.5% 6.5% -2.1%

Inventory

120,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Months Supply of Inventory

An estimate of the number of months it will take to deplete the current Inventory given recent sales rates

Economists' note : MSI is a useful indicator of market conditions. The benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Anything higher is traditionally a buyers' market, and anything lower is a sellers' market. There is no single accepted way of calculating MSI. A common method is to divide current Inventory by the most recent month's Closed Sales count, but this count is a usually poor predictor of future Closed Sales due to seasonal cycles. To eliminate seasonal effects, we use the 12-month average of monthly Closed Sales instead.

Quarter

YTD (Monthly Avg) Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018

Months Supply

1.2 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-63.6% -60.7% -64.7% -45.5% -38.9% -28.2% -19.0% -17.5% -7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 11.1% 2.6% 0.0%

Months Supply of Inventory

2017 5.0

2018

2019

2020

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q2 2021 Single-Family Homes Florida

Closed Sales by Sale Price

The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter

Economists' note: Closed Sales are one of the simplest--yet most important--indicators for the residential real estate market. When comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a quarter's sales to the amount of sales in the same quarter in the previous year), rather than changes from one quarter to the next.

25,000

Q2 2020

Q2 2021

20,000

15,000

10,000 5,000

0

Less than $50,000 - $100,000 - $150,000 - $200,000 - $250,000 -

$50,000

$99,999 $149,999 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999

Sale Price Less than $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $599,999 $600,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 or more

$300,000 - $400,000 $399,999 $599,999

Closed Sales

198 914 2,766 7,091 11,655 15,098 22,604 20,023 10,854 7,211

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-46.2% -31.8% -32.1% -20.5% -9.9% 32.4% 61.6% 108.2% 179.2% 235.7%

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

$600,000 - $1,000,000 or

$999,999

more

Closed Sales

Median Time to Contract by Sale Price

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed during the quarter. The difference is that Time to Contract measures the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale. When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining numbers of cash sales.

Q2 2020

Q2 2021

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Less than $50,000 - $100,000 - $150,000 - $200,000 - $250,000 -

$50,000

$99,999 $149,999 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999

Sale Price Less than $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $599,999 $600,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 or more

$300,000 - $400,000 $399,999 $599,999

Median Time to Contract 23 Days 20 Days 13 Days 9 Days 8 Days 8 Days 8 Days 9 Days 12 Days 27 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-39.5% -39.4% -60.6% -69.0% -75.0% -75.8% -77.8% -79.5% -82.6% -76.7%

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

$600,000 - $1,000,000 or

$999,999

more

Median Time to Contract

Produced by Florida Realtors? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Thursday, August 12, 2021. Next data release is Wednesday, November 10, 2021.

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