Analysts’ Ideas of the Week – Diamcor Posts Record ...

Week of March 3, 2014

Analysts' Ideas of the Week ? Diamcor Posts Record Revenues and Sales



Sid Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA, CFA Head of Research Diamcor Posts Record Revenues and Sales I wrote about Diamcor Mining Inc. (TSXV: DMI) in my weekly column here in June of last year, as one of our top picks. DMI's shares were up 49% ($1.22 to $1.82 per share) by November 2013. The share price has since dropped, and is currently trading at $1.39 per share; still up 14% since June of last year. Here is a quick background - DMI is a brand new producer of rough diamonds from the Krone-Endora project in South Africa. The project was acquired in 2011 from De Beers for just $2M. The project sits immediately adjacent to De Beers' Venetia Diamond Mine, which is the third largest diamond mine in the world, and South Africa's largest diamond producer. Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is DMI's strategic partner. Tiffany has enabled DMI to speed up the development of Krone Endora by providing capital when necessary. DMI recently released their Q3 (quarter ended December 31, 2013) results. In the quarter, the company reported $1.40 million in revenues; its best quarter since commencing operations at Krone-Endora. The company has so far sold approximately 15,410 carats for gross proceeds of US$3.2 million @ at an average rate of US$206 per carat. The following table shows all sales so far.

2013 Fundamental Research Corp. " 10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront "

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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Date

Nov-12 Jul-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Oct-13* Total

Carats Amount (US$, M)

3,580

$0.51

3,123

$0.42

4,753

$0.86

3,863

$0.58

91.7

$0.82

15,410

$3.18

US$ per Carat $143 $133 $180 $150 $8,924 $206

* First Large Gem Quality Diamond Sale

They currently have 1,500 carats of rough diamonds in inventory for sale this quarter.

In February 2014, the company announced the recovery of a 43.9 carat gem quality diamond (see image below), which will also be sold in this quarter. In October 2013, the company had sold its first large gem quality diamond (91.7 carats) for US$818k; or US$8,924 per carat.

Diamcor 43.9 Carat Gem Quality

Source: Company DMI is continuing with its testing and commissioning activities at Krone Endora, with the goal to move to a 24/7 operation. Management expects production to reach 10,000 carats per months within the first 12 months of commercial production.

2013 Fundamental Research Corp. " 10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront " PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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We will start reporting our revenue and EPS estimates once the project reaches commercial production; which is when the company will have a regular production / sales schedule. We will be issuing an update report, based on the Q3 financials, shortly.

Daniel Iwata, BA, Dip. Fin. Mgmt. Equity Research Associate

Downturn provides opportunity for The Cash Store

Shares of The Cash Store (TSX: CSF) have undergone a steep decline from February 13, 2014, dropping from $1.04 to the current price of $0.33. The major reason for the significant decline was the Ontario Government denying the company a payday loan license. This has caused CSF to halt their operations in Ontario, which have accounted for approximately 34% of their loans. CSF operates locations under the name The Cash Store and Instaloans, and have 175 locations in Ontario. Throughout Canada they have 510 locations.

The Cash Store has been receiving increased scrutiny over the last year for charging in excess of mandated payday loan rates, and not providing customers with their loans immediately. Concerns have been raised over The Cash Store issuing debit cards, requiring customers to then withdraw cash from their debit machine, incurring additional fees. There have also been concerns over their payday loan product, which was structured similar to a payday loan; however, it charged interest above the mandated maximums. In January 31, 2014, The Supreme Court of B.C. confirmed an order by Consumer Protection B.C. to return $1 million in fees collected from customers , due to rates in excess of the Province's maximum.

The company generated revenue from interest and fees of $190.77 million in Fiscal 2013, and $187.41 in FY2012. The company reported a net loss of $35.25 million in FY2013, and $56.88 million in FY2012. In FY2011, they reported revenue $ 190.00 million and net income of $14.67 million. The Cash Store underwent a big shift in strategy in 2012. Previously, they sold their loans to third parties. In 2012, they began to directly issue loans to individuals. To do this, the company raised $132 million by issuing 11.5% bonds, and began directly issuing and holding loans.

I feel that The Cash store has a strong market position for payday loans with approximately 33% of the payday loan locations in Canada. I feel that their customer base and locations would warrant a higher value than their current market cap. Even though they have significant debt, their expenses have been declining since 2012. I believe that the withholding of their licenses will force a significant restructuring, and increase the company's compliance with payday lending laws. The company has already formed a special compliance committee and

2013 Fundamental Research Corp. " 10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront "

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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appointed a new Chief Compliance and Regulatory Affairs Officer. In my opinion CSF has good long-term prospects and would encourage investors to closely follow their news updates as they appeal their Ontario license.

Pooneh Ruintan, MEcon. Msc. Finance Equity Research Associate Mortgage REITs In my column this week, I will provide some insights into mortgage REITs ("m REITs") as an asset class. M REITs invest and own property mortgages. These REITs loan money for mortgages to owners of real estate, or purchase existing mortgages, mortgage-backed securities, or asset backed securities. Their revenues are generated primarily by the interest that they earn on the mortgage loans. Fewer than 10% of REITs are m REITs and 90% are equity REITs ("e REITs"). E REITs invest in, and own real estate properties, and their revenues come principally from rent. According to our research, the U.S. has about 40 m REITs, with a total market cap of about $64 billion, while Canada has no mortgage REITs. Currently, the m REITs sector generates an average yield of 13%, compared to 30-year Treasury bonds which have a yield of 3.6%. As m REITs generate income by borrowing at short-term rates and investing in higher-yielding mortgage-backed securities or buying long-term bonds, they are sensitive to interest-rate swings. Over 2013, m REITs showed weak performance (lost 3% on average, while S&P 500 was up about 30%). In 2014, the worry about m REITs is rising interest rates, because as interest rates rise, bond prices will fall. However it should be noted that m REITs are not really bond funds, but are businesses that use complex hedging strategies to protect themselves from rate increases. Moreover, no single interest rate determines a m REIT's profitability. Instead, it's the spread between long-term and short-term rates which affects an m REITS return. The greater the gap between short-term borrowing rates, and what long-term bonds are yielding, the more profitable a mortgage REIT will be. With the rate on 3-month Treasuries at 0.05%, and 10-year Treasury notes at 2.6%, the spread between the two has almost never been wider in the last several years. As a result, the profit margins of m REITs are high.

2013 Fundamental Research Corp. " 10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront " PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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Analysts estimate that the average mortgage REIT now trades at a 20% discount to the book value of its underlying portfolio, and in 2014, the sector is forecast to deliver returns over 20%. The biggest mortgage REIT is Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY), which has a market capitalization of $9.7 billion. Two small-cap REITs, American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp (Nasdaq: MTGE), and AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (NYSE: MITT), both invest in higher-yielding mortgage bonds of lower quality. These two REITs trade at about 15% discounts to their book values, and have dividend yields of 14%. Also, they're largely hedged against rising rates.

2013 Fundamental Research Corp. " 10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront " PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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