A Coming Crisis in Teaching? - Learning Policy Institute

A Coming Crisis in Teaching?

Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S.

Leib Sutcher, Linda Darling-Hammond, and Desiree Carver-Thomas

SEPTEMBER 2016

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank a number of individuals for their valuable assistance in assembling

and reviewing data that informed vaAricouksnasopewctlseodf ogumr aneanlytsiss: Sungti Hsu, Director of State

Affiliate and Partnership Support, American Association of Colleges for Teacher Education; and

Acknowledgments Allison Henderson, Vice President, and Carrie Murthy, Research Analyst, at Westat's education

gTrhoeuapu. tWheoraslswootuhladnlkiktehteoftohllaonwkinagnLuPmIbceorlloefaignudeisvifdour atlhsefiorrcothnetirribvuatliuoanbsletoastshiestraensceearicnhapssroemcebslsi:ng JaonsdeprehvBieiwshinogp,dTaatraatKhaintii,nAfonrnmeePdodvaorlisokuy,saansdpePcattsroicfkoSuhriaenldasl.yIsnisa: dSduintigotni ,Hwsue,aDpiprreecctioarteofthSteaitnesights aTAnhffdeilfiaeauettedhbaoanrcsdkwPooafruftelndreeldriskbheyitpoSuturhpcapunorkrreLt,naAtrrmayneRdroifcsoaernnmtAehsraslco,ocSlielaentaiigoounr eLosef:cCRtuoorlbleeerrgtoeafsFPfourrbgTleiecra,PcRoholeincreyEeadtatuUcGanutiihvoaen,r;sEialtinysdeof LCAeallvliisfnoo-nrGnHuiare,anBcdaeerr,ksaeonlnedy, ,tVhfioecreehPnirtseirisneisdEiegdnhuttc,saatanondrdCQaaudravrliiiecteyM.TWuereatmhayl.s,AoRnethdseawanerkcththhAaennfkoallLyloasuwt,riaantgHWLaeyPseItscaoat'nlsldeeaLdgauunceaistSifioonnrctlahierir fvgoarroluuthapbe.liWer eefedaeiltdsibnoagtchakan:ndLkeditebhseSigufnotclclhooewnrt,inrRigbounLtPeieoItncaosGltloeuahtghau,iseTsparfooarjKetcihnte,ii,arancndodnLtithsraiebGeunotitnoizrneaslEetodsuftochraetoorveresQresaueraeclihintygprtoehcaeemss.:We etJohdsaietnopkrhiBaBul ilpslhreotopcper,osTso.afWrSaeiKtrhvinoiciue,tAstnahnnedegPPeeonndeeroollosskpityey, MaonfadtlimsPhaetfroainrckdthSsephiirireeiltddositf.iInanlglaaodnfddtihtdieoeansfi,gownreecmaopennptrrtiebocuniateitdoe,nttshhetiosinwthsoiirgskhts wpanroodujelfdecetn,doabtnahdcakLvoiesfafbeGereeondnzpbaoylseossuibfrolceru.orvreenrsteaenindgfothrme eerdictoolrlieaalgpureosc:eRsso.berta Furger, Roneeta Guha, Elise Levin-Guracar, and the entire Educator Quality Team. And we thank Laura Hayes and Lani Sinclair Rfoerstehaercirheidnittihnigs anredadoefswigonrkcoisntfruinbduetidonins ptoartthbisy pthroejeSc. tD, .aBnedcLhitseal,GJro.nFzoaulensdafotiroonv.eCrosereionpgetrhaeting

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THwhoeiwuslldreetnptooFtrothubanevdneaebtfieiotenend, apfnroodsmstihbtelheeS. ainnsdilgehrtFsoaunnddeaxtipoenr.tise of two external reviewers: Jason Grissom, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Education, and Director of the Master of Public Policy

PErxotgerarmnaalt RPeeavbioedwy eCorsllege of Education and Human Development, Vanderbilt University; and

Richard Ingersoll, Board of Overseers Professor of Education and Sociology at the University of PTehnisnrseyplvoarnt ibae.nWeefittehdanfrkotmhetmhefionrstihghetcsaarendanedxpaetrtteinsteioonf ttwhoeyegxtaevrentahlererveipeowret.rAs:nLJyaisrFoeenmnGga,irniBsirnsaognmd,on sDAhseoseorRtcciooabmteriPntsrgoEsfxaecrseesloolerunorcfoePwAunbs.slicstPaonlticPyroafnedssEodruactaTtieoxna,saSntdatDeiUrencitvoerrsoiftyth; eanMdaJsetsesreoRfoPtuhbsltiecinP,oPlircoyfessor oPfroPgurbalmic aPtoPliecaybaonddyECcoolnleogme iocfsEadnudcDatiiroenctaonrdofHtuhme aInnsDtietuvetelofpomr Reenste, aVracnhdoenrbLilatbUonriavnedrsEitmy;palnoydment aRticUhnairvderInsigteyrosfolCl,aBliofoarrndiao,fBOevrekresleeeyr.sWPerothfeasnskorthoefmEdfuocratthioencaarnedaSnodcaiottloengytioatntthheeyUngaivveersthitey roefport. APennynrseymlvaainian.gWsehothrtacnokmtihnegms afroer othuer ocwarne.and attention they gave the report. Any remaining shortcomings are our own.

The appropriate citation for this report is:

Sutcher, L., Darling-Hammond, L., & Carver-Thomas, D. (2016). A coming crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S.. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute. The appropriate citation for this report is: This report can be found online at . ASuntdchfoelrl,oLw.,tDhaerclionngv-eHrasamtmiononodn, LT.w, &itteCraarvte#rS-TolhvoinmgaTse,aDc.h(e2r0S1h6o)r.tAagceosm. ing crisis in teaching? Teacher supply, demand, and shortages in the U.S.. Palo Alto, CA: Learning Policy Institute. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International LTihciesnrseep.oTrot vcaienwbae cfoupnydofotnhlins elicaetnhstetp, vs:i/s/ilteahrtntpin:/g/pcoreliactyiivnesctoitmutme.onrgs/.porogd/luicet/ncsoems/ibnyg-ncrci/s4is.0-t/e. aching. And follow the conversation on Twitter at #SolvingTeacherShortages.

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

License. To view a copy of this license, visit .

LEARNING POLICY INSTITUTE | A COMING CRISIS IN TEACHING?

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................1

Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S............................................................................8

I. Indicators of Shortages...................................................................................................................... 10 Indicators of Shortages by Teaching Field .................................................................................. 10 Shortage Indicators by State ...................................................................................................... 11 Indicators of Shortages of Teachers of Color.............................................................................. 12 Shortage Indicators by Type of School and Student ................................................................... 13 National Indicators of Shortages................................................................................................. 15

II. Teacher Demand................................................................................................................................ 17 Demand Factors ......................................................................................................................... 17 Current Teacher Demand ............................................................................................................ 21

III. Teacher Supply.................................................................................................................................. 23 Supply Factors ............................................................................................................................ 23 Current Teacher Supply................................................................................................................ 25

IV. The Teacher Labor Market: Predicting the Trends Ahead........................................................... 29 Supply Trends in Shortage Fields................................................................................................. 30 Supply Trends in States............................................................................................................... 30 Availability of New Teachers................................................................................................... 30 Salaries .................................................................................................................................. 31 Working Conditions................................................................................................................. 32 Attrition Rates......................................................................................................................... 32 Sources of Shortages.................................................................................................................. 37

V. The Role of Teacher Attrition............................................................................................................ 38 The Costs of Attrition .................................................................................................................. 40 Reasons for Attrition ................................................................................................................... 42

VI. Policies to Meet Demand with a High-Quality Supply of Teachers............................................ 53 1. Creating Competitive, Equitable Compensation Packages.................................................... 55 2. Increasing Supply in Shortage Fields and Areas ................................................................... 59 3. Improving Teacher Retention.................................................................................................. 63 4. Facilitating a National Labor Market for Teachers................................................................. 68

VII. Conclusion......................................................................................................................................... 70

Appendix A: Methodology..................................................................................................................... 71

Appendix B: State Indicators Influencing Supply and Demand....................................................... 79

LEARNING POLICY INSTITUTE | A COMING CRISIS IN TEACHING?

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Appendix C: Distribution of Uncertified and Inexperienced Teachers by State............................. 82 Endnotes.................................................................................................................................................. 84 About the Authors................................................................................................................................100

LEARNING POLICY INSTITUTE | A COMING CRISIS IN TEACHING?

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Figures and Tables

Figures Figure 1: Projected Teacher Supply and Demand..........................................................................2 Figure 2: Teacher Demand Factors Over Time...............................................................................3 Figure 3: Projected Teacher Supply and Demand....................................................................... 15 Figure 4: Student Enrollment in Public Schools 1955?56 to 2024?25.................................... 18 Figure 5: Public School Pupil-Teacher Ratios 1985?86 to 2024?25........................................ 19 Figure 6: Components of Teacher Demand ................................................................................ 20 Figure 7: Estimated New Teacher Hires Demanded.................................................................... 21 Figure 8: National Teacher Preparation Program Enrollments and Completers.......................... 26 Figure 9: Estimated Teacher Supply............................................................................................ 27 Figure 10: Projected Teacher Supply and Demand..................................................................... 29 Figure 11: Teacher Reports of Administrative Support by State................................................. 33 Figure 12: Teacher Reports of Testing-Related Job Insecurity by State...................................... 34 Figure 13: Teacher Reports of Classroom Autonomy by State.................................................... 35 Figure 14: Teachers Who Plan to Leave vs. Those Who Plan to Stay.......................................... 36 Figure 15: Teacher Demand Factors Over Time ......................................................................... 38 Figure 16: Attrition Rate Over Time.............................................................................................. 39 Figure 17: Projected Supply and Demand with Varying Attrition Rates....................................... 40 Figure 18: Trends in Teacher Turnover........................................................................................ 41 Figure 19: Distribution of Leavers by Voluntary Retirement Status............................................ 43 Figure 20: Teaching Experience of Public School Teachers, 1987?88, 2007?08, and 2011?12.......................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 21: Teacher Turnover Rate by Primary Teaching Assignment........................................... 44 Figure 22: Leaver Rate,1988?89 to 2012?13......................................................................... 45 Figure 23: Mover Rate,1988?89 to 2012?13 ......................................................................... 45 Figure 24: Teacher Turnover by Teacher Characteristics ........................................................... 46 Figure 25: Turnover Rates by Region and District Type .............................................................. 48 Figure 26: Teacher Turnover by Source and State....................................................................... 48 Figure 27: Types of Reasons Given by Teachers for Leaving the Profession............................... 49 Figure 28: Probability of Teacher Turnover in Relation to Administrative Support...................... 52 Figure 29: What Would Bring Leavers Back?.............................................................................. 57 Figure A1: Annual Change in Teacher Workforce Size Over Time ............................................... 72 Figure A2: Public School Experience-Based Continuation Rates, 2011?13 ............................. 73 Figure A3: Experience Distribution of New Teacher Hires, 2011?12 ........................................ 74

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