National Weather Service Dec 2021 February 2022

National Weather Service August 2024 ? October 2024

Central Region Climate Outlook

Monday, July 22, 2024 6:23 AM

Important Messages:

August 2024 Temperature &

Transition to La Ni?a likely

Precipitation Outlooks

High probabilities remain (from Above normal temps are

both the statistical and

favored from nearly coast to

dynamical models) for La Ni?a coast with the highest

conditions to develop over the probabilities where the largest

coming months.

soil moisture deficits exist.

The monthly outlook for August is largely based on soil moisture, model data, trends and recent variability.

Some uncertainty across the middle of the country due to trends and recent variability. Below normal precipitation is favored across the western

The seasonal outlook supports portions of the region where

drought development and

highest chances for warmth

persistence of drought from the exist with above normal precip

central plains into Wyoming. favored across the SE due to

Seasonal Drought Outlook

potential tropical activity, trends and guidance.

One Month Temperature Outlook One Month Precipitation Outlook Three Month Temperature Outlook

Aug-Sep-Oct 2024 Temperature &

Precipitation Outlooks

Tools are in good agreement

favoring above normal temps

across the majority of the

CONUS with uncertainty across

There have been major improvements in drought

northern plains into center of Three Month Precipitation Outlook country where possible early La

conditions nationwide as we have Ni?a impacts, weakness in

come out of El Ni?o.

model data, weaker trends and

Despite improvements, drought persistence lowered probs.

development or persistence is

Broad model consensus

forecast across parts of the central favoring below normal precip

and high plains over the coming extending from the Rockies into

months - which is consistent with the Plains with mixed signals

the lean of the seasonal outlooks. favoring EC elsewhere in CR.

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National Weather Service August 2024 ? October 2024

Central Region Climate Outlook

Monday, July 22, 2024 6:23 AM

ENSO Status:

IRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO

La Ni?a Watch

Forecast/Plumes

Average SST anomalies show pockets of below normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific that will get pushed westward over time by the trade winds (not shown). Subsurface heat content anomalies (0-300m) are also negative along the equator, although they area not quite as cool as a month ago (see above). This is part of the reason that chances for La Ni?a have decreased slightly from the prior month (although they are still heavily

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Useful Links/Info:

News from Latest ENSO Blog from Sea Surface Temperatures from the Climate Prediction Center Latest ENSO Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center Drought Information from the US Drought Monitor Interactive GIS Mapping from NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) ? Account registration required NWS Forecast Maps from Western Region

? Both statistical and dynamical models have SSTs diving to between -0.5?C and -1.0?C (a weaker La Ni?a) over the coming months.

? There is about a 70% chance for La Ni?a conditions being established by fall (ASO), reaching 79% by winter-time (NDJ). This is down slightly from the previous forecast due to subsurface waters not being quite as cold.

Other Teleconnection Effects

? There is currently enhanced convection across the maritime continent and portions of the western Pacific with suppressed convection across the Americas into the Atlantic and parts of Africa/Europe.

? After a largely disorganized period of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) across the global tropics, there is some structure emerging in the OLR that is consistent with ENSO neutral conditions changing towards La Ni?a.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

For more info, contact: shawn.rossi@

Click to evaluate this product

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