INTEREST RATES

STATPAK



WASHINGTON, DC JULY 2021

MARKET IN A MINUTE

A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR JUNE 2021

CONTRACTS

Contract activity in June 2021 was up 2.3% from June 2020 and was up in four price categories. Through the first six months of the year, contract activity is up 27.6%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 30 days in June 2021, down from 33 days in June of last year.

URGENCY INDEX

The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in June compared to the year prior. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 83.3% (May 2005) and as low as 30.1% (December 2008). In June 2021, the Urgency Index was 74.8%, up significantly from 71.5% in June 2020. And that is Washington, DC's highest June Urgency Index in the past 12 years.

INVENTORY

The number of homes on the market at the end of June was up 22.9% compared to the end of June 2020, but that is entirely because of a substantial increase in the number of condos on the market. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 25.2% compared to last June ? and much of that was condos as well. The increase in contract activity was not enough to offset the increase in inventory, raising overall supply to 1.7 months from 1.4 months at the end of June 2020.

INTEREST RATES

30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of June stood at 2.98%. It is 17 basis points lower than this time last year and essentially unchanged from last month. We continue to expect rates to vary a bit on either side of 3% over the next few months, with rates gradually climbing higher toward the end of the third quarter.

AFFORDABILITY

The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 35.1% higher than a decade ago in June 2011 ? but the median price is 63% higher. The payment is 13.1% higher than this time because of much higher home prices. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,982) was higher in June than the median rented price ($2,400).

DIRECTION OF THE MARKET

Washington, DC's real estate market is the softest in the region ? but that is only because of the condo/co-op inventory. There is almost two and half months of condo inventory and right at a one month for attached and detached homes. DC's median sales price is more than $700,000 and the average sales price is approaching $900,000, and those are truly astounding. While sellers of attached and detached homes still hold most of the cards, it may be next year before most buyers gain some negotiating leverage.

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. "Northern Virginia" is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 1

MONTHLY SUMMARY JUNE 2020 vs. JUNE 2021

WASHINGTON, DC Number of Sales Fully Available Inventory on 6/30 Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Urgency Index Months' Supply

June 2020

772 1,416 1,256 1,024

33 $740,745

$2,665 71.5%

1.4

June 2021

1,112 1,740 1,573 1,048

30 $892,334

$1,446 74.8%

1.7

% Change

44.0% 22.9% 25.2%

2.3% -9.1% 20.5% -45.7% 4.6% 20.1%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Sales Fully Available Inventory on 6/30 Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Urgency Index Months' Supply

1,117 1,389 1,495 1,451

31 $589,821

$3,709 73.3%

1.0

1,695 1,198 1,970 1,624

18 $674,027

$815 87.3%

0.7

51.7% -13.8% 31.8% 11.9% -41.9% 14.3% -78.0% 19.1% -22.9%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Sales Fully Available Inventory on 6/30 Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Urgency Index Months' Supply

912 860 1,061 1,202

35 $353,306

$6,235 69.9%

0.7

1,130 751

1,423 1,215

15 $406,272

$1,434 90.8%

0.6

23.9% -12.7% 34.1%

1.1% -57.1% 15.0% -77.0% 29.9% -13.6%

NORTHERN VIRGINIA Number of Sales Fully Available Inventory on 6/30 Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Urgency Index Months' Supply

2,015 1,890 2,585 2,375

24 $647,046

$2,379 81.5%

0.8

2,976 2,479 3,556 2,734

18 $742,935

$749 86.9%

0.9

47.7% 31.2% 37.6% 15.1% -25.0% 14.8% -68.5%

6.6% 13.9%

LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Sales Fully Available Inventory on 6/30 Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Urgency Index Months' Supply

726 590 829 861

26 $571,458

$2,947 78.0%

0.7

941 393 1,063 876

10 $711,634

$616 95.5%

0.4

29.6% -33.4% 28.2%

1.7% -61.5% 24.5% -79.1% 22.4% -34.5%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 2

YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2020 vs. 2021

WASHINGTON, DC Number of Closed Sales Average Month-End Available Inventory Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Average Urgency Index Average Months' Supply

Year-to-Date

Jan-Jun

Jan-Jun

2020

2021

3,949

5,554

1,298

1,581

6,373

8,308

4,834

6,169

38

34

$730,611

$809,926

$2,798

$1,894

67.8%

72.3%

1.6

1.5

% Change

40.6% 21.8% 30.4% 27.6% -10.1% 10.9% -32.3%

6.7% -4.6%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY Number of Closed Sales Average Month-End Available Inventory Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Average Urgency Index Average Months' Supply

5,379 1,374 7,751 6,584

36 $568,375

$3,693 70.7%

1.3

7,343 974

9,435 8,348

20 $647,883

$1,210 86.1%

0.7

36.5% -29.1% 21.7% 26.8% -43.0% 14.0% -67.2% 21.9% -44.1%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Closed Sales Average Month-End Available Inventory Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Average Urgency Index Average Months' Supply

4,501 1,097 6,416 6,126

40 $338,771

$6,178 66.0%

1.1

5,609 595

7,102 6,689

19 $382,898

$2,269 87.2%

0.5

24.6% -45.8% 10.7%

9.2% -52.9% 13.0% -63.3% 32.2% -50.4%

NORTHERN VIRGINIA Number of Closed Sales Average Month-End Available Inventory Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Average Urgency Index Average Months' Supply

9,446 1,802 13,382 11,281

24 $645,760

$2,163 81.9%

1.0

13,166 1,928

17,528 14,696

21 $713,587

$1,079 85.3%

0.8

39.4% 7.0%

31.0% 30.3% -15.0% 10.5% -50.1%

4.2% -17.9%

LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Closed Sales Average Month-End Available Inventory Number of New Listings Number of New Contracts Days on Market - New Contracts Average Sales Price Average Seller Subsidy Average Urgency Index Average Months' Supply

3,028 666

4,478 3,719

27 $572,243

$2,650 80.1%

1.1

4,096 288

5,194 4,556

11 $666,523

$675 94.6%

0.4

35.3% -56.7% 16.0% 22.5% -59.1% 16.5% -74.5% 18.2% -64.7%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 3

WASHINGTON, DC ? Detail Pages

Interest Rate

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates ? 2014-Current

6.00

5.50

1-Year ARM 30-Year Fixed

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGES SALE PRICE Washington, DC ? 2013-Current

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

MORTGAGE RATES

? 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of June averaged 2.98%, compared to 3.15% at the end of June 2020.

? One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 2.64% at the end of June 2021, which is down from 3.07% at the end of June 2020.

BUYING POWER

? A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $237,797 at the end of June, which is $2,718 more than June 2020, and $42,274 more than June 2010.

? In June 2011, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,207 to purchase a median-priced home. Today it takes a payment of $2,982. That's a 35.1% increase - but the median price is 63% higher.

AVERAGE PRICES

? The average sales price in June 2021 was $892,334 an increase of 20.5% from the June 2020 average price of $740,745. That's the highest June average sales price of any metro area jurisdiction ? ever.

? DC has the highest average and median sales prices in the region by almost $150,000.

? Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations only. The big spikes in July and October were largely the result of a significant drop in the number of sales of lower-priced homes.

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 4

% of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21

Number of Contracts

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Washington, DC ? 2017-Current

% of Contracts # Contracts

URGENCY INDEX Washington, DC ? June 2010-2021

URGENCY INDEX ? 2017-Current

1,250

? This chart compares the number of contracts (green line) to the

percent that were on the market

1,000

30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it may appear that the

lower contract activity also means

a lower percentage of homes that

750

sell quickly ? but that's not always

true.

500

250

0

URGENCY INDEX - June

? In the past 12 years, the June Urgency Index has been as high as 74.8% and as low as 49.0%. And we're at that high mark now.

? The average June Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 68.7%.

? Contract activity is up 2.3% from last June ? and the Urgency Index increased from 71.5% to 74.8%.

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison ? June 2021

URGENCY INDEX ? DC Metro Area

? The average June Urgency Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 66.4% ? significantly lower than where we are today, which is 86.9% for all five jurisdictions.

? Of the five jurisdictions, DC has the lowest urgency index this month.

? As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 5

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Washington, DC ? June 2020 vs. June 2021 by Price Range

$1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999

$0 - $299,999 0

84 69

144 131

192 189

92 76

50

100

150

200

# of New Contracts

June 2021 June 2020

267 289

269 270

250

300

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Washington, DC ? June 30, 2020 vs. June 30, 2021

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY

? As noted on page 2, the number of new contracts ratified in June 2021 was up 2.3% from June 2020. There were increases for four price categories.

? As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is up 27.6%.

? 19.5% of all homes going under contract in June had at least one price reduction. Last June it was 20.5%.

350

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS

? As noted on page 2, the available inventory for June 2021 was up 22.9% from June 2020 and inventory increased significantly for homes priced less than $500,000.

? 31.4% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In June 2020, 29.9% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

MONTHS' SUPPLY Washington, DC ? End of June 2020 vs. End of June 2021

MONTHS' SUPPLY

? The overall supply of homes on the market at the end of June 2021 was 1.7 months, up 20.1% from 1.4 months at the end of June 2020.

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 6

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Washington, DC ? June 2020 vs. June 2021 ? New Contracts

$1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999

$0 - $299,999 0

39.2

51.4

18.9 19.2

26.6 33.2

June 2021 June 2020

26.1 27.7

32.7

39.3

42.2

51.2

10

20

30

40

50

# of Days on Market

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW CONTRACTS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Washington, DC ? January 2015-Current

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET ? NEW CONTRACTS

? The average number of days on the market for all homes receiving contracts in June 2021 was 30 days, which was down 9.1% from 33 days last June.

60

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

? There were 1,573 new listings that came on the market in June 2021, a 25.2% increase from the 1,256 in June 2020.

? Note how consistent the gap between available inventory (green line) and contract activity (red line) has been over the 5+ years covered by this chart. That's indicative of a very solid market over a long period of time.

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Washington, DC ? June 2020 vs. June 2021

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

? Initial pricing strategy is critical to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be.

? Homes settling in June 2021 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 4.82% above list. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 10.84% below the original price.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA

? The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed ? "Sales" are transactions that settled during the statistical period; "Under Contracts" are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled ? "Available Listings" reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. ? "Months' Supply" is simply the number of "Fully Available Listings" on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of "Contracts" ratified that month.

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 7

Analysis by Property Type ? Condo/Co-op

LISTINGS

Condo/Co-op

Listings $299,999 and under $300,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $1,500,000 & higher Grand Total:

CONDO/CO-OP - LISTINGS

New This Month

2020

2021 % Change

76

131

72.4%

211

293

38.9%

245

293

19.6%

89

116

30.3%

43

47

9.3%

19

22

15.8%

683

902

32.1%

Total Active

? The number of new listings for condos and co-ops coming on

2020

2021 % Change

the market increased 32.1% compared to June 2020.

132

278 110.6% ? The fully available inventory of

182

410 125.3%

condos as of June 30, 2021 was 49.5% more than the same time

248

287

15.7%

in 2020.

128

111

-13.3%

72

84

16.7%

64

65

1.6%

826

1235 49.5%

CONTRACTS

Condo/Co-op

Contracts $299,999 and under $300,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $1,500,000 & higher Grand Total:

CONDO/CO-OP - CONTRACTS

New This Month

2020

2021 % Change

58

85

46.6%

177

210

18.6%

171

167

-2.3%

45

62

37.8%

11

22

100.0%

1

10

900.0%

463

556

20.1%

Year-To-Date

? The number of condos and co-ops receiving ratified

2020

2021 % Change

contracts increased 20.1% in June 2021 compared to June

371

471

27.0%

2020.

876

1213

38.5%

? Year-to-date, contract activity is up 42.9% compared to 2020.

711

1038 46.0%

257

406

58.0%

75

138

84.0%

35

57

62.9%

2325

3323 42.9%

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-op

Settlements $299,999 and under $300,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $1,500,000 & higher Grand Total:

Average Sales Price: Condo/Co-op

New This Month

2020

2021 % Change

56

69

23.2%

130

191

46.9%

122

199

63.1%

37

79

113.5%

7

37

428.6%

5

9

80.0%

357

584

63.6%

Year-To-Date

2020

2021 % Change

267

389

45.7%

695

1041 49.8%

605

963

59.2%

234

404

72.6%

75

140

86.7%

39

48

23.1%

1915

2985 55.9%

CONDO/CO-OP ? SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE

? The number of condos and co-ops settling in June 2021 increased 63.6% compared to June 2020. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 55.9%.

? The average price was up 7.5% compared to June 2020.

? Year-to-date, the average price is up just 0.8%.

Jun 2020 Jun 2021 % Change YTD 2020 YTD 2021 % Change $543,900 $584,702 7.5% $565,788 $570,364 0.8%

Copyright ? 2021 ? McEnearney Associates

Washington, DC StatPak - Page 8

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