Mortgage Applications & Mortgage Rates - Yardeni Research
US Economic Indicators: Mortgage Applications &
Mortgage Rates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 21, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
1-2
Mortgage Rate
3
October 21, 2021 / Mortgage Applications & Mortgage Rates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
Figure 1.
8000
8000
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS
7000
7000
6000
6000
5000
5000
Refinancing Index
(sa)
4000
4000
3000 2000
10/15
3000 2000
1000
1000
0
2009 2010
2011
2012
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0 2022
Figure 2.
350
350
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS
300
300
New Purchase Index
(sa)
10/15
250
250
200
200
150
2009 2010
2011
2012
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
150 2022
Page 1 / October 21, 2021 / Mortgage Applications & Mortgage Rates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
Figure 3.
625
9
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES
575
525
8
475
425
7
375
325
Aug
6
275
Mortgage Applications:
225
New Purchase Index
(4-week average, sa)
175
10/15 5
125
New Plus Existing
4
Single-Family Home Sales
75
(million units, saar)
25
3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
12000
Figure 4.
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa)
10000
12000 10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000 2000
10/15
4000 2000
0
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
Page 2 / October 21, 2021 / Mortgage Applications & Mortgage Rates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Mortgage Rate
Figure 5.
17
17
INTEREST RATE ON FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE
15
15
13
13
11
11
30-Year Mortgage* (3.21)
9
9
7
7
5
5
3
10/20
3
1
1
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Average conventional 30-year commitment rate. Weekly data thru December 2003, daily thereafter. Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Figure 6.
400
400
30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE MINUS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD
(basis points, daily)
350
350
300
300
Spread (196)
250
250
200
12/28 200
150
150
100
100
50
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: The Wall Street Journal and Federal Reserve Board.
Page 3 / October 21, 2021 / Mortgage Applications & Mortgage Rates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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