CHAPTER 5: HISTORY OF INTEREST RATES & RISK PREMIUMS
Probability distribution of price and one-year holding period return for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond (which will have 29 years to maturity at year’s end): Economy Probability YTM Price Capital Gain Coupon Interest HPR Boom 0.20 11.0% $74.05 ($25.95 $8.00 (17.95% Normal Growth 0.50 8.0% $100.00 $0.00 $8.00 8.00% Recession 0.30 7.0% $112.28 ... ................
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