Development process/General areas (MDJ)



AAE 451

System Requirements Review

Group 6

John Collins

Chad Davis

Chris Fles

Danny Sze Ling Lim

Justin Rohde

Ryan Schulz

Ronald Wong

Yusaku Yamashita

Contents

Executive Summary 3

1 Introduction 4

2 Business Case 7

3 Competition 14

4 Customer Attributes 18

5 Design Requirements 22

6 Conclusion 24

Appendix A – QFD Matrix 25

Appendix B – FAA aircraft fleet size forecast 26

Appendix C – Aircraft Database 27

Appendix D – Merit Pool 29

Executive Summary

The current outlook on the world’s fuel supply shows the possibility of nearing peak oil within the next few decades. This situation will drive up the cost of fuel to possibly unattainable prices. The occurrence of peak oil, however, will not eliminate the need for individuals to travel and business to work fluidly. This report assesses the feasibility of creating an aircraft that is capable of safely and efficiently operating on an alternative fuel.

Our team believes that a market exists for a small to medium sized propeller driven aircraft. The market to which this could be sold to consists primarily of air taxi services, air charter operations, and corporate flight departments. Our aircraft could also be sold for uses in cargo, medical, and evacuation roles. Our primary markets exist not only in the United States, but also in Europe and Asia.

We feel that the best way to effectively capture a portion of these markets is through the development of a small to medium sized aircraft. It will be capable of carrying 6 passengers and two crew on a 500-600 nautical mile trip. With the capability of using runways as short as 2,100 ft our aircraft will be able to utilize a multitude of airports providing more convenient point to point service.

A main focus of this design will be to maintain affordability and low cost of the aircraft. A lower acquisition cost and operating cost will positively affect both the operator and end-user of our aircraft, which will in turn bolster sales.

The combination of an alternative fuel aircraft, a new and broad market, and effective utilization of the many advanced design tools available today will make our aircraft a successful competitor.

1. Introduction

Objective

To determine the feasibility of an alternative fuel business or general aviation (GA) aircraft.

Approach

Examine by conducting an analysis of the current aviation market sectors. Perform trade-off studies and QFD matrix to establish the design parameters.

Petroleum/Oil Decline

The aviation industry has, since the introduction of the reciprocating engine with the Wright Flyer to the current props and jets, been reliant on the use of petroleum based fuels. It represents 90 percent of our transportation energy.[1]

The current increase in global demand has been compounded with a widespread decline in production in more than 54 of the 65 most important oil-producing countries[2]. The figures stand at around 1.14 million barrels lost per day[3]. More than 95 percent of all recoverable oil has now been found and approximately 90% of all known reserves are currently in production. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002.[4] As a result, the airline industry reflects the strain imposed:

Thai Airways announced in August it had lost 4.78 billion baht ($117 million) in its third quarter after being hit by soaring jet fuel costs. In 2004, Delta Airlines held [hedging] positions but was forced to sell them in a short-term cash crunch. Those hedges would have protected about a third of its fuel needs. Their share price has collapsed from more than $8 a year ago to less than $0.70 today.[5]

According to the ExxonMobil projection (The Outlook for Energy - A View to 2030), global oil demand is expected to increase by approximately 45 percent from 2004 to 2030, the absolute level of conventional oil in place is estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey at 6 to 8 trillion barrels, with ultimate recoverable resources currently estimated at about 3 trillion barrels. By 2030, global oil and gas demand is likely to be close to 200 million barrels per day oil-equivalent.[6] There is a potential 800 billion barrels of oil with the conversion of 4 trillion barrels of frontier resources, such as extra-heavy oil, "oil sands," and "oil shale. Nonetheless, this is a capital-intensive venture with a need for new infrastructure, as well as a costly and complex extraction process which forms a serious constraint. [7]

Consequently, once non-OPEC production plateaus, conventional world oil production could peak shortly thereafter. Conventional petroleum production will within the next ten years no longer be able to satisfy demand, and prices will rise in accordance with the laws of supply and demand. Therefore, a step towards non-petroleum based fuels will be crucial to the sustainability of the industry.

The current alternative fuel technologies available are biodiesel, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, natural gas, propane and nuclear.

Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3 all demonstrate a gradual and substantial increase for oil consumption in developing and developed nations up to 2030.

Our Aircraft

The product aims to satisfy the market with a 6-8 passenger twin-engine propeller driven aircraft. Cessna attributed their success to:

‘A broad product line that is responsive to the marketplace, emerging global markets, and implementation of lean manufacturing processes’ [8]

The markets available to our aircraft span across several sectors, including air charter, air taxi, corporate flight departments, cargo/combination, medical, and evacuation purposes; both categories of domestic and foreign market demand and characteristics are studied. Through the study of these markets, the market size and competition, as well as customer attributes are compiled. From this database, a trade-off study is performed and a Quality Function Deployment (QFD) matrix is drawn to determine the customer attributes’ relation and weighting to corresponding engineering characteristics. From the matrix, design requirements are then defined.

Our aircraft aims to deliver an affordable and time-saving means of travel to the end-user at affordable operating cost levels for the operators. It also aims to provide a positive impact solution to the current global warming issues with lower emissions in CO2 and other greenhouse gases. With flexible interior configurations, it can also provide cross-platform capability for different market needs.

2. Business Case

Today, the world's steady economic growth provides an impression of stability. Rolls- Royce8 forecasts that the world gross domestic product will grow over the next 20 years. The most dramatic growth will be in China. Growth in North America and Europe will be more modest. Economic expansion within the European Union is projected to accelerate, due to greater domestic demand, a more favorable exchange rate, and the benefit of a hearty global economy. Meanwhile, the impressive growth rate in the United States fed largely by consumer buying probably will not be sustained because of national debt concerns. The level of demand in the air transport market varies by region. The U.S. commercial air travel industry continues to struggle, while the industry in Europe is showing strength, and Asia has enormous potential.

In the following market analysis, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses were performed to study the feasibility of our aircraft in the markets that were proposed.

Domestic Market Analysis

Overall, the air transport industry in North America is still not doing well after September 11, 2001, but it may be regain its power. Actually, North American airlines were projected to lose several billion dollars in 2004 and 2005. But they have adjusted capacity by decreasing the number of domestic flights and increasing the number of smaller or medium size regional air transport. Therefore, there is a solid market for such fleets of small to medium size regional air transport for air transportation, fractional aircraft ownership, flight membership program, air taxi services, and aircraft charters.

According to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association statistical data book, in 2002, there are around 5,700 twin engine turbo props and 17,483 twin engine piston aircraft active in the US. These aircraft are used mainly for corporate business travels, followed by air taxi operators.

With the expected rise of aviation fuel in the future, we foresee an increase in demand for the cost efficient propeller driven aircraft. Driven by operators that place high priority in the operating costs, we will also see a demand for alternative fuel powered aircraft.

Foreign Market Analysis

Apart from the US market, our group feels that there are other potential markets in the world in which our aircraft can be successful. We have identified Europe and Asia as possible regions where there will be a great demand for the aircraft we provide.

Strengths

The greatest strength of our aircraft is that it is not dependent on conventional aviation fuels. With the prices of aviation fuels rapidly increasing, the costs of operating conventional aircraft are quickly escalating too. Hence operators will be more inclined to make a switch to our alternative fuel based aircraft.

Furthermore, for short-haul flights, propeller driven aircraft have always been more efficient than their turbojet counterparts. This, coupled with the increase in prices of aviation fuels, would provide our aircraft an edge over our competitors.

Weaknesses

The main weakness of our aircraft is that it has a comparatively shorter range since it is not as time efficient for propeller driven aircraft to fly long distances when compared to turbojet powered aircraft. Hence customers of our aircraft will be limited in the range in which they can operate.

Noise and vibration produced by propeller driven aircraft also have to be taken into consideration. We anticipate a high number of corporate users for our aircraft and a noisy cabin environment is not conducive for such users. This will therefore adversely affect our aircraft’s marketability.

Opportunities in Europe

Presently, Europe has the second largest business aircraft fleet in the world and over the next five years, Europe will account for 11% of the total sales[9] of business air travel. Thus there is a sizable business aviation market in Europe to which we can market our aircraft.

There are approximately 866 air taxi companies operating 1190 aircraft and 615 flight departments owned by European corporations operating 861 aircraft[10]. Aircraft age is one of the most common reasons quoted by European operators for purchasing new aircraft. This means that there is a rather large replacement market in Europe to which our aircraft can be marketed.

In Moscow, for example, business aviation is expected to grow with a vast air taxi network envisioned. The Moscow city authorities plan to set up regular air taxi flights from Moscow to major suburban areas and cities in European Russia[11].

Operational flexibility offered by business aviation also attracts enough interest from airlines such as Lufthansa to launch their own private jet business. Lufthansa’s first class and business class passengers can now utilize the private jet services between Munich and more than a thousand destinations in Europe, as well as point-to-point flights between those European destinations.

In October 2001, the European Commission adopted proposals for a Single European Sky which intends to organize the upper European airspace uniformly, with air traffic control areas based on operational efficiency and not national borders. This will make flying more efficient and therefore generate greater interest in general aviation within the region[12].

The Single European Sky concept shows that there are on-going efforts to make general aviation a vital part of European Air transportation infrastructure and thus provide a good business environment for our aircraft.

Opportunities in Asia

According to the President of the Asian Business Aviation Association, within the next twenty years, China will buy 2,400 aircraft worth US$200 billion[13]. Even a small fraction of this amount can translate to significant revenue for our business.

The bi-annual Asian Aerospace exhibition held in Singapore is a good channel to market our aircraft. In fact, according to , the Asian Aerospace 2006 held in February will see an increase in the number of business aviation aircraft exhibitors[14], showing that the demand in Asia for business aviation aircraft is growing.

Currently there are only a few air charter operators (e.g. Deer Jet, Metro Jet) operating within Asia. However, as more companies set up locations across China, our team anticipates an increase in demand for the use of business aircraft in China. This can be attributed to the lack of infrastructure and poor reliability of other modes of transportation within China.

Currently in Asia, most business aircraft operators tend to operate business jets as opposed to turbo prop or other propeller driven aircraft. The main reason for this is the perception of propeller driven aircraft as being inferior. However, during times when prices of aviation fuels are high and it is not economically feasible to fly short distances using business jets, there will be a short haul market for our aircraft. Customers who are interested in using our aircraft will most likely be those who are located in Hong Kong or major cities in China, but who have production plants or business operations remote parts of China. Thus our target customers will be those who intend to use the aircraft for domestic business flights rather than for travelling between different Asian countries.

Threats

The public’s perception of propeller driven aircraft is one of the major threats to the sale of our aircraft. Propeller driven aircraft have always been perceived by the public as being dangerous and old and, therefore, is not well received in general.

Alternative fuel based jet aircraft would be our greatest competitor for market sales. We anticipate an increase in demand for our proposed aircraft specifically from the rising cost of aviation fuel, which would then attract more jet operators to take advantage of our aircraft. However, if an alternative fuel based jet aircraft were to be available as well, we would expect the demand for our aircraft to drop significantly.

The Russian government imposes very high import duty or tax (41%) on foreign manufactured aircraft, and this also affects spares and engines. Such high taxes will deter potential buyers from our aircraft and can be detrimental to our businesses in Eastern Europe.

Unlike the Single European Sky concept that Europe employs, most countries in Asia do not have standardized Cabotage laws, which govern international air carriers providing flights within a different country. This makes point to point regional flying less flexible in Asia and therefore alternatives to commercial aviation appear less attractive.

The lack of small or medium sized airports in Asia also means that business aviation aircraft will have to land on major airports. Thus the supposed time savings of using business aircraft in small airports, which do not require as much time to clear customs as major airports, is not realized in Asia.

Market Size

As of 2002, the global business aircraft fleet consisted of 9,785 turboprop aircraft. Pogo envisions a 2% capture of the 30 million passengers per year travelling within a 500nm range to be profitable. This is backed up by the LinearAir Taxi figures of 16,000 passengers per day travelling in this range. Eclipse projects the air taxi services accounting for approximately 20% of the entire business aircraft fleet by 2015. In order to meet the demands of business executives and CEO’s, a demand for fuel efficient, low-cost aircraft is in ever increasing priority for the business world. In the business world, time equals money. We plan to edge out other competing aircraft with a lighter, more fuel efficient twin-turboprop aircraft to ensure that companies remain profitable in a time where congestion at major airports is at an all time high.

Approximately 3.9% (382 aircraft) were operating within air taxi services. Projected markets indicate that the increase in air taxi services will directly reflect the number of fuel efficient, propeller driven aircraft for travel distances not exceeding 500 nautical miles. A projection in demand of 5000 aircraft in the next ten years, and a conservative estimate of 10-20% capture of the market for a start-up company will give us an average of 50-100 aircraft production figure per year.

Cost Models

Aviation Fuel Prices

One of the major tenants of this design study is the affect of peak oil on aviation fuel prices and availability. Most of the energy forecasts provided by entities such as Energy Information Administration (EIA) and ExxonMobil extend to the year 2030. Both of these energy forecasts do not see a significant increase in the price of non-renewable energy resources as a whole, and specifically for jet fuel, the EIA predicts only a 0.9% annual price increase for the next 25 years. Both the EIA and ExxonMobil believe there will be enough oil resources and production to meet the growing demand, and these sources cite how improved efficiencies in the transportation industry will help alleviate the growing demand for petroleum based fuels. The average seat mile per gallon in the aviation industry is expected to increase 1.2% annually until 2030, and when this prediction is combined with the expected price increases, the overall result is a decrease in price per seat mile. The price for alternative fuels such as ethanol are expected to decrease slightly, with an average annual price change of about -0.1%, but at that rate, jet fuel would still be cheaper, as can be seen in Figure 4. The forecast provided by the EIA and ExxonMobil does not show a significant need for alternative fuel based aircraft within the next 25 years; however, there are some factors that these forecasts may not be considering.

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Figure 4: Fuels Price Forecast

The current prices of petroleum based fuels are actually higher than the expected prices in 2030 according to the EIA. Historical data shows that events such as the invasion of Iraq and hurricane Katrina cause a significant increase in the cost of petroleum based fuels. Given the uncertain security of oil resources in the Middle East, and potential confrontations between oil producing nations such as Iran and the United States, it is not unreasonable to assume that the prices predicted by the EIA are considering the best case scenario, where oil supplies and production are not threatened by international politics or conflicts. Extended periods of heightened fuel prices could lead to a business opportunity for alternative fuel aircraft. The projected price of alternative fuels such as ethanol are actually less than the current price of jet fuel. If jet fuel prices have long high price periods due to natural disasters and international problems like they do now, alternative fuels may represent significant cost savings for aircraft operators. If the projected price for jet fuel is determined by analyzing the historical trends, it will be more expensive than predicted by the EIA in the year 2030, and alternative fuels will become competitive around the year 2018, as can be seen in Figure 5 (assuming no loss in efficiency due to alternative fuels).

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Figure 5: Fuel Price Forecast based on Historical Trends

Aircraft Operating Costs

The target market currently makes use of a wide variety of aircraft. A large portion of these are light twin turboprop or single turboprop aircraft, but many analysts expect that these turboprop fleets will largely be replaced by very light jets (VLJ). Historically, the operating cost for turboprop aircraft have been significantly less than jet aircraft that have a similar gross weight or even smaller. Turboprops tend to burn less fuel and require less maintenance than jets. Typical hourly operating costs for light turboprops are around $500-$600 per hour, while small jet aircraft cost approximately $1,500-$1800 per hour. One of the major design considerations of manufactures of VLJ’s has been operating costs. Eclipse Aviation claims the Eclipse 500 has an hourly operating cost of only $300 per hour, and cites the operating cost of aircraft such as the Adam A700 and Cessna Mustang as being $730 and $460 per hour, respectively. Newer turboprop aircraft such as the Adam A500, Piper Meridian, Piper Seneca, and Beech Baron 58 have hourly operating costs of $280, $286, $186, and $209, respectively. The Eclipse 500 shows that VLJ’s can have operating costs that are very competitive with light turbo-props, and in order to be competitive in this market, alternative fuel based aircraft would have to maintain operating costs similar to these aircraft.

The hourly cost of fuel varies between 30%-40% of the total hourly cost for most aircraft.[15] The highest projected price for jet fuel based on historical data is $2.50/gallon in 2030. At that point, bio-fuels such as ethanol or bio-diesel will cost approximately $1.67/gallon (see Figure 5 above). Using petroleum based jet fuel compared to bio-fuels represents a price increase of approximately 50%. Based on the hourly costs associated with fuel, aircraft operating with petroleum based fuels would be 20% more expensive than alternative fuel aircraft, assuming no losses in efficiency in alternative fuels. For an aircraft such as the Eclipse 500, this would represent an operating cost increase from $300 to $360 per hour.

Acquisition costs for turboprop aircraft and VLJ’s also vary. The Eclipse 500, Cessna Mustang, and Adam A700 have acquisition costs of $1.5M, $2.6, and $2.2M, respectively. Acquisition costs for turboprop aircraft slightly lower than VLJ’s, for example, the Pilatus PC-12 has a price tag of $800,000 and it is actually larger than the Eclipse 500. Other cost considerations when comparing jet and turboprop aircraft include insurance costs, which are typically lower for jet aircraft. Jet aircraft are also considered more desirable when compared to turboprops in the eyes of passengers, so operators often pay the higher acquisition and operating costs associated with jet aircraft in order to attract more customers.

Overall, the acquisition and operating costs of the alternative fuel based aircraft need to be very strict in order to compete in the current market. The expected savings from using an alternative fuel when petroleum prices are high may be negated by the lower efficiency of alternative fuels. This means that if alternative fuels are 20% less efficient than petroleum based fuels, the operating costs per hour would be equal because the aircraft would need to carry 20% more fuel for the same mission. In terms of acquisition costs, the alternative fuel aircraft would need a purchase price of about $800,000 if it was propeller driven aircraft or about $1.5M if it is a jet aircraft.

3. Competition

Turboprop Aircraft

Traditionally, the small air charter and air taxi market have widespread use of light turboprop aircraft. Even old models such as the Raytheon Beech King Air series have enjoyed success in this market due to their capabilities. For the short distances normally flown by air charter and air taxi services, turboprops offer excellent capabilities. Turboprops can takeoff in very short distances, have a passenger capacity and range that easily suits the industry, and have historically benefited from lower operating costs when compared to their jet aircraft competitors. However, with the entrance of Very Light Jets (VLJ) into the market, only the newer turboprop aircraft such as the Piper Meridian and Socata TBM 700C2 have been able to beat operating costs of these VLJ’s. The performance gap between the newer single and twin turboprops and VLJ’s is actually very small considering the short range flown by air charter and air taxi services. The cruise speed difference between turboprops and jets does not offer significant time savings when the distance is 500 nautical miles or less. Payload and range capabilities are similar for very light jets and turboprops as well.

Despite their competitive capabilities and operating costs, the market outlook for turboprop aircraft is not very optimistic when compared to jet aircraft. Customers and passengers perceive jets to be more attractive choices for flying and operating, and turboprop aircraft have higher accident rates than jets, which leads to higher insurance costs. Single turboprop aircraft have an accident rate of 2.14 per 100,000 flight hours, while twin turboprops have an accident rate of 2.24, which is significantly higher than the business jet accident rate of 0.51 per 100,000 flight hours[16]. The perceived antiquity of propeller driven aircraft and higher accident rates make it tough for turboprop aircraft to compete in this market. However, turboprop aircraft have been a staple of small charter flights and air taxis for many years, so it is important to include them in a competitor database for an alternative fuel aircraft, and some typical examples are shown below.

|  |King Air 200 |Socata TBM 700 |Pilatus PC 12 |Piaggio Avanti 180 |Piper Meridian |

|Passenger Capacity[17] |7 |6 |8 |11 |5 |

|Max Range |1400 nm |1350 nm |1800 nm |1100 nm |1020 nm |

|Max Cruise Speed |230 kts |250 kts |270 kts |340 kts |260 kts |

|Takeoff Distance |2600 ft |2100 ft |2300 ft |2900 ft |2400 ft |

|Max Altitude |35000 ft |30000 ft |30000 ft |41000 ft |25000 ft |

|Gross Weight |11000 lbs |6500 lbs |9500 lbs |11500 lbs |5100 lbs |

|Acquisition Cost |$1.150 M |$2.697 M |$0.850 M |$4.230 M |$1.520 M |

|Operating Costs / Hour |$668 |$300 |$423 |$494.83 |$286 |

Table 1: Competitive Aircraft Database

Jet Aircraft

Market trends have shown a strong preference towards jet aircraft over turboprops in recent years. “Overall, the FAA estimates that the GA turboprop fleet will grow from 7,300 aircraft last year to 8,400 in 2016. This is in stark contrast to the overall business jet fleet, which the agency believes will nearly double from 8,425 aircraft last year to 15,900 in 2016, with VLJ deliveries accounting for a large portion of the expansion” (Aviation International News). With the development of aircraft such as the Eclipse 500, Cessna Mustang, and Adam A700, the very light jet industry has shown that it is able to offer operating costs that are very competitive with respect to the newer single turboprop aircraft that are entering the market. The operating costs of these VLJ’s are estimated to be lower than the current costs of aircraft like the Raytheon Beech King Air series or Piaggio Avanti. The low operating costs are very attractive considering that jet aircraft typically have better performance characteristics than turboprops, although with the range and passenger capacity used in air charter and air taxi services, the performance issues seem less important that costs and customer satisfaction.

Customer satisfaction tends to give jet aircraft a distinct advantage over turboprops. Passengers enjoy quieter flights in jets, and the altitude capabilities of jets mean they can get into smooth air easier than turboprops. Also, many passengers have a stigma about any aircraft with propellers, and jets are generally more aesthetically pleasing to customers. The competitive operating costs of VLJ’s means that air charter and air taxi services are likely to pay the higher acquisition costs for these jets because of the VLJ’s ability to attract more customers. The main competitors that an alternative fuel aircraft would run up against are aircraft such as the Eclipse 500, Adam A700, and Cessna Mustang, and their abilities and costs are shown below.

|  |Eclipse 500 |Cessna Mustang |Adam A700 |

|Passenger Capacity |6 |6 |6 |

|IFR Range, 4 Passengers |1280 nm |1158 nm |1100 nm |

|Max Cruise Speed |375 kts |340 kts |340 kts |

|Takeoff Distance, Sea Level |2155 ft |3120 ft |3400 ft |

|Max Altitude |41000 ft |41000 ft |41000 ft |

|Gross Weight |5700 lbs |7900 lbs |7000 lbs |

|Acquisition Cost |$1.495 M |$2.623 M |$2.284 M |

|Operating Costs Per Hour |$301.99 |$464.38 |$728.30 |

Table 2: Jet Aircraft Competitor Database

Piston Aircraft

Piston aircraft are normally smaller and slower than turboprop aircraft. Engine limitations in piston aircraft have lead to their use being mostly restricted to the general aviation market for small aircraft. However, the Adam A500 has shown that it has performance characteristics that are very competitive with existing turboprops. The consideration of piston aircraft is important because at this point in time the limitations of alternative fuels are still in question. Customer attributes show that turboprop performance is essential at the very least, with jet aircraft performance being the ideal. But bio-fuels may not be compatible with turbine engines, and it is necessary to show that piston engines, which already have the ability to use bio-fuels and blends, are capable of meeting the customer requirements. The characteristics of the Adam A500 are shown below.

|  |Adam A500 |

|Passenger Capacity |6 |

|IFR Range, 4 Passengers |1050 nm |

|Max Cruise Speed |230 kts |

|Takeoff Distance, Sea Level |2471 ft |

|Max Altitude |25000 ft |

|Gross Weight |7000 lbs |

|Acquisition Cost |$1.218 M |

|Operating Costs Per Hour |$280 |

Table 3: Piston Aircraft Database

Competing Transportation Methods

When the consumer market becomes more conscientious of petroleum fuel prices; many will consider which method of travel to use, and the cost efficiency of those methods will be very important. Cars have an obvious advantage in flexibility over aircraft. In order for an alternative fuel aircraft to compete in terms of flexibility, it must be able to operate from as many airports as possible. The variety of destinations is very important when competing against cars. Another area where cars have an advantage is operating costs. Maintenance and fuel costs for cars will be lower than aircraft. The EIA provides a forecast about the average mile per gallon for cars as well as the projected cost per gallon for gasoline. There is similar data for aircraft. If a standard car carries four people, and the expected miles per gallon and cost per gallon are know, the cost per seat mile for a car can be calculated. The price per seat mile for aircraft and cars is shown in the figure below.

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As can be seen, the cost per seat mile based on fuel for aircraft and cars are similar. The speed and range abilities of aircraft, and hopefully alternative fuel aircraft, will more than make up for the added expenses, especially when time equates to money in current business practice. Passengers that have strict schedules will still need to use aircraft to meet their time requirements, which gives aircraft a very important advantage over cars.

In the markets targeted by this alternative fuel aircraft, transportation by train is not flexible enough or fast enough to represent a serious competing mode of transportation.

4. Customer Attributes

In order to create an aircraft that will be attractive to buyers, it is first required to determine what will make it so. The customer will place importance on various features, characteristics, and traits that best fit their own needs. These things are known as customer attributes.

This section states our conception of the most important customer attributes for our potential customers: both on-demand flight businesses (operators) and their passengers (end-users). For reasons of convenience, the group acted as the customer in the generation of these attributes rather than contacting real companies and passengers. The group has generated a list of customer attributes that are summarized in the figure below.

|Attribute |Customer |

| |Operators |End-User |

|Performance |Speed |Speed |

| |Range |Range |

| |Takeoff Distance | |

| |Operating Ceiling | |

|Economics |Direct Operating Costs |Ticket Prices |

| |Acquisition Cost |Availability |

| |Maintainability | |

| |Turn over time | |

| |Support and Training | |

| |Upgradeable | |

|Safety |Noise & Vibrations |Noise & Vibration |

| |Reliability |Reliability |

| |Weather Restrictions | |

| |Luggage Security | |

|Aesthetics |Interior Design |Comfort |

| | |Cabin Size |

Table 4: Customer Attributes for Air-Taxi Operators and Their Customers

The attributes have been divided into four categories as seen in the above table. Each category will be briefly discussed.

Performance

Speed and range are present for both the operator and the end-user. Both operator and end-user will be concerned with what destinations are accessible and how long it will take to get there. However, since the vast majority of trips will be short, a decrease in speed will only have a minor affect on the overall trip times. Of much more importance to the operator is the runway distance, which can make a substantial difference in the number of airports that the aircraft is able to service. This, in turn, will allow greater business opportunity and volume of traffic for the operator. Operating ceiling was also a concern for mainly weather and turbulence issues.

Economics

The economic characteristics will be by far the most important set of attributes to the customer. Most important among economic issues is the operating cost. In a scenario where petroleum is prohibitively expensive, operators will be in the market for alternatively fuelled aircraft because of the cost-savings that these airplanes can produce. Lower operating costs also filter down to the end-user in the form of lower ticket prices and increased availability.

Acquisition costs will also significantly drive interest in this aircraft. The acquisition cost must be kept low enough so that the lower operating costs will present a long-time financial advantage. In other words, it must be insured that the operator will be able to recover the initial cost of the aircraft through profit from operating costs in a reasonable amount of time. The maintainability, turn over time, support and training costs, and ability to upgrade the aircraft will also have an economic impact on the customer.

Safety

With any aircraft, reliability is a major concern. Operators desire a reliable aircraft for two main reasons: liability and public image. For a minor, non-fatal failure, the operator can very easily be put into financial harm compensating for customer inconvenience, minor injury, or other customer considerations. In addition, little needs to be discussed about the burdens an operator would have to bear in the event of a catastrophic failure.

Noise is also a safety issue. Care should be taken to insure that the noise level in the cabin will not cause hearing loss in the passengers and crew. Furthermore, the recent trend towards anti-terrorism in the aviation industry will also cause baggage security to be a major safety issue.

Aesthetics

Operators will be concerned with the comfort and contentment of their passengers. For this reason, interior design will be of importance. Passengers will desire a spacious cabin and comfortable seating. However, since the air-taxi industry caters to small business and lesser executives, the importance of these aesthetic properties should not be overstated.

The customer attributes discussed here will help to determine the important engineering characteristics by use of the QFD system as discussed in the next section. As this project progresses, these engineering characteristics will drive the sizing and geometry of the aircraft.

Quality Function Deployment Analysis

Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is a tool that is used to identify important engineering decisions. The QFD system compares customer’s desires (customer attributes) with important quantifiable design decisions (engineering requirements), and determines which of these engineering requirements are most important to the overall design.

A portion of the QFD matrix used for this project is shown below (the full matrix can be found in the Appendix. On the left hand side of the matrix, the customer attributes discussed in the previous section are listed in their corresponding four groups. The first column to the right of the customer attributes ranks the relative importance of each of them on a scale of 1 through 10. The most important customer attributes have been highlighted in blue.

Along the top of the matrix, the engineering requirements are listed. These represent several major quantifiable design decisions. The middle of the matrix relates each engineering requirement’s effect on each customer attribute. The red cells represent a major effect, the yellow cells a moderate effect, and the green cells a small effect.

To determine which engineering requirements are most important, the values from the middle section of the matrix are multiplied by the relative importance values in the left-hand column and then summed for each engineering requirement. The results of this are found in the “score” row near the bottom of the matrix. From this score, we can see that the two most important design decisions are the engine sizing, and the kind of material to be used.

The QFD matrix also helps to determine target values by comparing attributes of competing aircraft. Also, the bottom section of the matrix contains information about the engineering requirements as found in other competing aircraft. This extra information makes it possible to determine appropriate design strategies to give this aircraft a competitive advantage. The target values chosen for this aircraft are listed in the “targets” row at the bottom of the matrix.

The target values that QFD helped to choose will be used in the future of this project to size and dimension the aircraft. The individual design requirements will be discussed further in the next section.

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Figure 4: Abbreviated QFD Matrix

5. Design Requirements

Translating Analysis Results into Design

The QFD results have been coupled with cost analysis estimates for the near future to determine a set of initial performance requirements. Clearly these analyses indicate that efficiency is of high concern in the design of our aircraft. Preliminary design requirements based on our figures are summarized in Table 5. It is the determination of our team that these performance numbers will enable our aircraft to compete successfully in the alternative fuel market.

The use of a lightweight propulsion system is an important factor, but is implemented at the expense of speed. However, as previously stated, the nature of services such as air taxi (short-distance flights at low cost) does not necessarily demand high speed flight. Current aircraft in the on-demand flight market cruise between 200 and 300 knots. For the purposes of our aircraft, we have selected a preliminary target of 240 knots, with a maximum speed of 300 knots.

Currently, engines powered by alternate fuels such as bio-diesel require larger components than their equivalent petroleum-based counterparts. Research and development of lightweight, bio-fuel propulsion recently has made significant progress, and may be readily available in the very near future. Regardless of the engine selection that is made for our aircraft, the need for increased efficiency will mandate a reduction in the structural weight of the aircraft. Therefore composite materials will be used in the aircraft structure where possible to reduce weight without sacrificing strength and durability.

Range will dictate to large extent the sizing of the aircraft. Currently, the average U.S. flight is between 600 and 700 miles. Our aircraft must be capable of a longer range to accommodate the optimum number of flights. The range of current aircraft serving the air taxi and air charter market must also be considered. Based on data collected from various aircraft used by these services it has been determined that a 1000 nautical mile range will satisfy our range requirement. Additionally, the chosen range will allow the aircraft to cruise above a majority of severe weather conditions. Specifically, a ceiling of 25,000 feet was selected. This is a factor that will contribute to passenger safety and comfort, but will require a pressurized cabin.

One of the most important issues determining the feasibility of on-demand point-to-point flights is flexibility regarding the number of serviceable airports. Runway lengths at small airports are typically several thousand feet shorter than those of major airports. From our aircraft database it can be seen that 6-8 passenger aircraft commonly have takeoff distances in the range of 2,000 to 3,000 feet. To maximize airport access, our team has set a design goal 2,100 feet for takeoff and landing distance. To achieve this goal, the gross take off weight (GTOW) of the aircraft must be approximately 8,500 pounds.

|Maximum Range |500-600 nm |

|Maximum Speed |300 kts. |

|Cruise Speed |240 kts. |

|Ceiling |25,000 ft. |

|G.T.O.W. |8500 lb. |

|Takeoff/Landing Distance |< 2100 ft. |

Table 5: Performance Design Requirements

Design Mission

The representative design mission is shown in Figure 5. This design mission was chosen because of its wide use in the current aviation market. The length of this mission will also maximize the capabilities of owner/operators such as air taxi services to make point-to-point flights available to customers. Based on several of the performance parameters and requirements, it outlines the segments of an ideal operation; including taxi time, landing, and emergency procedures. A 10-minute taxi time was determined using the assumption that the aircraft will be utilized primarily for small airport operations and will not face delays. Based on FAR requirements, the aircraft will have a 45 minute fuel reserve in the event of an emergency, such that its range will be extended beyond 600 nautical miles.

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Figure 5: Representative Design Mission

6. Conclusion

A global market exists for a small to medium sized propeller driven aircraft, primarily aimed at operators such as air taxi services, air charter operations, and corporate flight departments. The market suggests a demand in aircraft capable of carrying 6 passengers and two crew on a 500-600 nautical mile trip. A capability of using runways as short as 2,100 ft will also open a multitude of airports providing more convenient point to point service.

The benefit of such an aircraft will be realized not only in the United States, but in the European and Asian markets as well. An initial design mission is drawn from the customer attributes and subsequent analysis with the QFD matrix. This has helped to determine the characteristics that allow our aircraft to be competitive and profitable in all of these markets with a production estimate of 50-100 aircraft per year.

Furthermore, the increasing uncertainty about the future of petroleum based fuels will create a need for alternative means of transportation. The new market will need to offer flexible point-to-point air transportation at low cost and high efficiency. In addition, awareness of global climate change will result in a larger demand for more environmentally friendly fuel sources. We have determined that the aviation industry will be adaptable to such change, and our aircraft will meet the needs of a changing market.

Appendix A – QFD Matrix

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Appendix B - FAA aircraft fleet size forecast

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Appendix C – Aircraft Database

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Appendix D – Group 6 Merit Pool

Percentage

|Danny |13.5 |

|Ron |13.5 |

|Justin |13.5 |

|Jon |13.5 |

|Chris |13.5 |

|Chad |9.5 |

|Ryan |11.0 |

|Yama |11.0 |

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[10] European Business Aviation Association Website

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Figure 3 - 2030 global energy use projections

Figure 2 - Demand Projection for oil

Figure 1 - Growth of world demand on oil

10 Min. Taxi

Take-off 2100 ft. Runway

Climb to 25,000 ft.

IFR Cruise at 250-300 KCAS

Descend for Landing

500-600 nm Range

45 Min. Reserve

Economy Cruise

Execute Missed Landing

Land 2100 ft. Runway

Begin IFR Landing

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