AARP PPI Employment Data Digest April 2019

APRIL 2019

Employment Data Digest

AARP Public Policy Institute's monthly look at the latest employment numbers for people ages 55+

Employment rose in April with 263,000 jobs added to the economy, up from 189,000 jobs added in March (revised down from +196,000). The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent.

The unemployment rate for people ages 55 and older was also down slightly to 2.6 percent.

The total labor force participation rate was 62.8 percent in April, a decrease from the previous month. The labor force participation rate for people ages 55 and older also edged down from 40.1 percent in March to 39.9 percent in April.

Among jobseekers ages 55+, 26.6 percent were long-term unemployed in April, compared with 22.2 percent of jobseekers ages 16 to 54.

Total Payroll Employment The economy added 263,000 jobs in April, an increase from the 189,000 jobs added in March (revised down from +196,000). The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent. Jobs were added in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. The number of people ages 55+ employed in April decreased slightly to 36.8 million, down from 36.9 million in March.

Labor Force Participation The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed (i.e., either working or actively seeking work). The April total labor force participation rate was down slightly to 62.8 percent. It also declined to 39.9 percent for those ages 55 and older. The labor force participation rates of those ages 16 to 24 and 25 to 54 have decreased since the beginning of the Great Recession, while the rate for those ages 55+ is slightly higher.

TABLE 1 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE BY AGE

Dec 2007*

Apr 2018

Jan 2019

Feb 2019

Mar 2019

Apr 2019

Total, 16 years and over

66.0%

62.8%

63.2%

63.2%

63.0%

62.8%

16 to 24 years

59.2%

55.2%

55.5%

55.3%

55.6%

55.2%

25 to 54 years

83.1%

81.9%

82.6%

82.5%

82.5%

82.2%

55 and over

38.9%

39.9%

40.3%

40.4%

40.1%

39.9%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey. Seasonally adjusted. *Beginning of recession, which

officially ended in June 2009.

Employment Rate The employment rate (sometimes called the employment-to-population ratio) refers to the proportion of the civilian non-institutional population that is employed. A year-over-year comparison shows that the employment rate for individuals ages 25 to 54 has now reached pre-recession levels. The rate for those ages 55+ is above the pre-recession level, and was 38.9 percent in April.

TABLE 2 EMPLOYMENT RATE

Dec 2007*

Apr 2011

Apr 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

Apr 2016

Apr 2017

25 to 54 years

79.7% 75.1% 75.7% 75.8% 76.5% 77.2% 77.7% 78.6%

55 years and over

37.7% 37.6% 37.7% 38.2% 38.1% 38.5% 38.6% 38.6%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted. *Beginning of recession, which officially ended in June 2009.

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Apr 2018 79.2%

38.7%

Apr 2019 79.7%

38.9%

APRIL 2019

Unemployment Rate The unemployed are individuals ages 16 and older who were not employed during the survey reference week, but were available for work, and had made efforts to find employment sometime during the fourweek period ending with the reference week. The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The overall unemployment rate decreased to 3.6 percent in April. The unemployment rate for people ages 55+ declined from 2.7 percent in March to 2.6 percent in April. The 55+ unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for both men and women.

TABLE 3

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Dec 2007*

Apr 2018

Jan 2019

Feb 2019

Mar 2019

Apr 2019

Total, 16 years and over

5.0%

3.9%

4.0%

3.8%

3.8%

3.6%

Total, 55 years and over

3.2%

3.0%

3.2%

2.7%

2.7%

2.6%

Men, 55 years and over

3.2%

3.2%

3.3%

2.8%

2.8%

2.6%

Women, 55 years and over

3.3%

2.8%

2.9%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Current Population Survey data. Seasonally adjusted. *Beginning of recession, which officially ended in June 2009.

Duration of Unemployment The duration of unemployment refers to the length of time that individuals classified as unemployed have been looking for work. The median duration of unemployment refers to the midpoint of unemployment, below and above which there is an equal number of observations. Usually, average durations of unemployment for those ages 45 and over are longer than the durations experienced by younger age groups. In April, however, this trend shifted somewhat. The unemployed ages 24 and younger continued to experience the lowest average durations of unemployment, but ? as shown in Table 4 ? average durations were longest for those ages 35 to 44 and 45 to 54 years, over 28 weeks. Meanwhile, the average time spent looking for work was 27.8 weeks for people ages 55 to 64 and 24.1 weeks for people ages 65 and over.

TABLE 4 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

TABLE 4 UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE

April 2019

Unemployed (numbers in thousands)

Weeks of unemployment

Total

Less than 5 weeks

5 to 14 weeks

Total

15 weeks and over

15 to 26

27 weeks

weeks

and over

Average (mean) duration

Median duration

Total, 16 years and over

5,387 1,585 1,572

2,231

997

1,234

24.2

11.2

16 to 19 years

628 233

242

154

108

46

11.0

7.5

20 to 24 years

871 301

252

319

153

166

17.9

9.3

25 to 34 years

1,335 381

384

570

239

331

27.7

12.0

35 to 44 years

845 229

241

376

159

217

28.7

11.4

45 to 54 years

790 144

245

401

170

231

28.1

14.8

55 to 64 years

614 181

163

270

88

182

27.8

12.3

65 years and over

303 117

44

141

80

62

24.1

12.5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted.

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APRIL 2019

TABLE 5 MEDIAN DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE (WEEKS)

Dec 2007*

Apr 2011

Apr 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

Apr 2016

Apr 2017

20 years and over

8.6

25.8

24.4

21.1

19.2

14.3

14.3

12.7

55 to 64 years

10.8

38.8

38.4

29.4

26.2

17.6

19.6

15.4

65 years and over

7.4

31.2

39.2

29.8

20.8

20.7

13.9

17.2

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted. *Beginning of recession, which officially ended in June 2009.

Apr 2018 12.7 14.8 13.8

Apr 2019 12.1 12.3 12.5

TABLE 6 AVERAGE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE (WEEKS)

Apr 2011

Apr 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

20 years and over

43.3

44.4

41.2

38.7

55 to 64 years

55.3

60.2

49.5

49.8

65 years and over

47.7

59.3

52.4

53.5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted.

Apr 2015 34.5 46.4 47.1

Apr 2016 31.7 43.5 44.5

Apr 2017 27.3 36.8 39.8

Apr 2018 25.7 31.7 33.7

Apr 2019 25.9 27.8 24.1

FIGURE 1 AVERAGE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE: YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON (WEEKS)

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 Apr 2011

Apr 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

Apr 2016

20 years and older

55 to 64 years

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted.

Apr 2017

Apr 2018

65 years and older

Apr 2019

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APRIL 2019

Long-Term Unemployment The long-term unemployed are individuals who have been looking for work for 27 weeks or more. Generally, jobseekers ages 55 and older are more likely to experience long-term unemployment compared with younger jobseekers. In April 2019, 26.6 percent of jobseekers ages 55 and older were long-term unemployed compared with 22.2 percent of jobseekers in the 16 to 54 age group.

TABLE 7 LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT

Age (years)

April 2019

Total unemployed (thousands)

Number unemployed 27 weeks and over

(thousands)

Long-term unemployed (%)

Ages 16 to 54

4,469

991

22.2%

Ages 55 and over

917

244

26.6%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted. Note: Because the long-term unemployed are a small subset of the overall CPS data population, please use caution when using data and expect fluctuations in estimates from month-to-month.

? AARP PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE 601 E Street NW Washington, DC 20049

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Data compiled on May 3, 2019. Written by Jen Schramm, AARP Public Policy Institute.

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