Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scores …

A C T R esearcli R eport Sem es

2 0 1 0 -2

Usefulness of High School Average

and ACT Scores in Making College

Admission Decisions

Richard Sawyer

ACT

A u g u st 2 0 1 0

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Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scores

in Making College Admission Decisions

Richard Sawyer

Abstract

Ample correlational evidence indicates that high school GPA is usually better than

admission test scores in predicting first-year college GPA, although test scores have incremental

predictive validity. M any people conclude that this correlational evidence translates directly to

usefulness in making admission decisions.

The issue o f usefulness is more complex than is

implied by correlations or by other regression statistics, however.

This paper considers two common goals in college admission:

maximizing academic

success and accurately identifying potentially successful applicants. The usefulness o f selection

variables in achieving these goals depends not only on the predictive strength o f the selection

variables (such as measured by correlations), but also on other factors, including the distribution

o f the selection variables in the applicant population, institutions¡¯ selectivity, and their criteria

for what constitutes success.

This paper considers indicators o f usefulness in achieving

admission goals, and presents estimates o f the indicators based on data from a large sample of

four-year institutions.

The results suggest that high school GPA is more useful than admission test scores in

situations involving low selectivity in admissions and minimal to average academic performance

in college. In contrast, test scores are more useful than high school GPA in situations involving

high selectivity and high academic performance.

In nearly all contexts, test scores have

incremental usefulness beyond high school GPA.

The paper also presents evidence for two other interesting phenomena: Students use their

high school GPAs and test scores to select the institutions they want to attend, and this self?

selection may be more important than institutions¡¯ selection in admissions.

Moreover, high

school GPA by test score interactions are important in predicting academic success.

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