Five-Year Review of the Addis Ababa Declaration on Population ...

Five-Year Review of the Addis Ababa Declaration on Population and Development

(AADPD)

Executive Summary

February 2019

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Acknowledgements Commissioned by the United Nations Economic Commissions for Africa (ECA), UNFPA, and the African Union, the Continental Review Report of the Five-Year Review of the Addis Ababa Declaration on Population and Development in Africa Beyond 2014 (AADPD) was prepared by two Senior Consultants:

Prof. Jean-Fran?ois Kobian?, Director, ISSP (Institut Sup?rieur des Sciences de la Population), University of Ouaga 1, Burkina Faso Dr. Jean Christophe Fotso, Research & Evaluation Expert & Executive Manager, EVIHDAF (Evidence for Sustainable Human Development Systems in Africa), Yaounde, Cameroon (). They were assisted by Dr. Funmilola OlaOlorun, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, and Prof. Jacques Emina, University of Kinshasa, DR Congo. They thank Dr Moussa Bougma, ISSP/University of Ouaga 1, Burkina Faso, and Mr. Taiwo Abiona, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, who supported with data analysis.

The Report was prepared under the overall guidance and supervision of Dr. Nkeiruka Didigu, Global Agenda Technical Specialist, and Dr. Daniel Schensul, Global Agenda Technical Coordinator, both in the Division of Governance and Multilateral Affairs at UNFPA HQ in New York. The Report benefited greatly from the ECA/AU/UNFPA Technical Committee. Their weekly meetings with the Consultants, and their insightful comments on different chapters of the report, were invaluable.

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1. The AADPD +5 Review

1. The Addis Ababa Declaration on Population and Development (AADPD) was adopted by African Ministers at the Africa Regional Conference on Population and Development held in Addis Ababa from October 3-4, 2013, and endorsed by African Heads of State at the African Union Executive Council in 2014. This declaration provides region-specific guidance on population and development in Africa, and guidelines for the full implementation of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) beyond 2014 in Africa.

2. The Declaration comprises a total of 88 priority measures (commitments) grouped under six pillars: Dignity and Equality; Health; Place and Mobility; Governance; Data and Statistics; Partnership and International Cooperation. In making the AADPD commitments, the Ministers viewed the demographic dividend as an important dimension of the AADPD agenda, and one of the key pathways from AADPD to sustainable development. With its human rights framing, the AADPD can serve as a standard for policies and programs that empower women and young people and uphold their rights.

3. The Review aims to assess and report on progress in implementing the commitments contained in the Declaration, with a view toward highlighting the gains, gaps, best practices and challenges as depicted by the data and evidenced from a policy perspective. This review highlights evidence-based recommendations that can accelerate progress on implementation at the national and continental level, thus moving African countries toward the vision of the AADPD and the realization of the Demographic Dividend and ultimately sustainable development in line with Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda.

4. The AADPD Operational Guide for Monitoring and Evaluation was adopted during the second meeting of the Specialized Technical Committee on Health, Population and Drug Control (STC-HPDC-2) held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on March 23-24, 2017. It is the substantive basis of the review. It follows the dual approach of "micro-monitoring" (i.e., the tracking the implementation of individual commitments) and "macro-evaluation" (i.e., assessment of progress on policies and the demographic dividend).

5. Data for this review come from two main sources. The quantitative component uses data from several sources, including national Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations Population Division (UNPD), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute of Statistics, the International Labor Organization (ILO), and the

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World Bank. The desk review covers AADPD plus five national review reports1, policy documents and program reports at the continental and regional levels, and peer-reviewed and grey literature.

2. Major Population and Development Trends

Life Expectancy and Declining Mortality 6. There has been a steady decline in infant and under-five mortality and a gain in life expectancy since

the 1960s as a consequence of progress in public health measures and medical technology. Life expectancy has increased from 51.7 years in 1990-1995 to 62.4 years in 2015-2020, corresponding to a 10.7-year gain. For Africa as a whole, infant mortality declined from 102 per 1,000 live births in 19901995 to 57 per 1,000 live births in 2015-2020. The same trend is observed for under-five mortality, which has decreased from 167 per 1,000 live births to 87 per 1,000 live births. Two distinctive regional patterns have emerged: a) high infant and under-five mortality in Western and Central Africa (respectively 72 and 113 per 1,000 live births in Central Africa; 70 and 111 per 1,000 live births in Western Africa); b) low infant and under-five mortality in Northern Africa (respectively 28 and 37 per 1,000 live births). Another dimension of improved health conditions is that life expectancy at older ages is increasing. On average, life expectancy in Africa at 60 years has increased by two years from 15 in 1990-1995 to 17 years in 2015-2020.

Overall Population Growth 7. Over the period from 1980-2020, Africa has been facing a rapid population growth as compared to

other regions in the world. According to UN population projections, after a peak in 1980-85 (2.8%), the growth rate declined to 2.5% in 2000-2005, and then was estimated at 2.6% for the period 20152020. Despite a projected decline, population growth of the continent will still be the highest in the world in 2050. According to the medium variant of the 2017 revisions of the United Nations population prospects, the growth rate of the African population will decline to 1.8% in 2050 (compared to 0.56% worldwide). This high average growth masks regional disparities, with higher rates of population

1 Preparations for the Five-Year Review of the Addis Ababa Declaration in Africa commenced in 2016, with the development of the Addis Ababa Operational Guide and its Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, subsequently endorsed by the STC-HPDC-2 at the recommendation of the APEC in 2017. In early 2018, national review processes were held in AU Members States. These processes, which assessed the extent of national level implementation of the commitments in the Declaration, culminated in nationally validated review reports highlighting progress, gains, gaps and challenges over the 2013-2018 five-year period.

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growth in Central, Western and Eastern Africa (respectively 3.0, 2.7, and 2.7 in 2015-2020) and lower population growth in Northern and Southern Africa (respectively 1.8, and 1.3 in 2015-2020).

Changing Age Structure 8. Unlike mortality, fertility has been declining at a slower pace: within a period of 30 years from 1990-

1995 to 2010-2015, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) moved from 5.7 (compared to 3. worldwide) to 4.7 (compared 2.5 worldwide). While the proportional declines for the continent and the world are similar over the period, what is striking across regions is the level of fertility at the 1990-1995 starting point. Fertility levels remain very high in Central and Western Africa (respectively 5.9 and 5.5 in 2010-2015), while in Eastern Africa the fertility decline over the last two decades is comparable to the continental average (4.9 in 2010-2015). In contrast, Southern Africa and Northern Africa started with lower levels of fertility, and these continue to fall slowly (respectively 2.6 and 3.3 in 2010-2015), although more recently (2005-2010), fertility rates in Northern Africa have been rising. Noteworthy is the widened gap between the poorest and the richest in 15 countries out of the 23 countries with available data. This raises the issue of equitable participation in the demographic dividend across the different economic strata of the population. 9. On average, about one in three people in Africa is aged 10-24. This relative share of adolescents and youth in the total population remains more or less stable over the 1990-2030 period for the entire continent and in Western, Eastern, and Central Africa, which are the regions with the highest fertility levels. The number of 10 - 24 year-olds on the continent however, is expected to rise from 200 million in 1990 to 530 million in 2030. The youth age group of 15-24 represents 19% of the African population, and by 2030 the number of youths in Africa will increase by 45 percent, from 230 million in 2015 to 335 million in 2030, according to the medium variant of the World Population Prospects 2017 revision. 10. With successes in fertility decline and improved life expectancy, the associated rise in the proportion of older people (65 years and older) is set to be an emerging population phenomenon for the continent. While the proportion of the elderly will remain relatively low in Western, Eastern, and Central Africa (between 3.0 and 3.5%), in the North and Southern subregions where the demographic transition is well advanced, there will be almost a doubling of the proportion of older people (from 3.9% and 3.4% in 1990, respectively, to 7.5% and 6.4% in 2030, respectively). This increasing trend points to the need for increasing policy focus on their well-being and living conditions as highlighted by the AADPD.

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