Mainstream used sedan values declined the most last week since …

December 10, 2018

"Mainstream used sedan values declined the most last week since January of this year. After bucking the trend for most of the year, the depreciation rates are finally reverting to seasonal expectations."

Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations

0%

-0.2%

WEEKLY CHANGE

-0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0%

-$49 -0.84%

-$42 -0.55%

-$73 -0.86%

-$97 -0.89%

-$101 -0.67%

-$137 -0.74%

-$148 -0.44%

-$120 -0.82%

-$161 -0.43%

-$75 CARS -0.72%

WEEKLY CHANGE

0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6%

-$56 -0.45%

-$78 -0.65%

-$113 -0.76%

-$87 -0.40%

-$30 -0.18%

-$51 -0.27%

-$59 -0.29%

-$256 -0.84%

-$167 -1.36%

-$83 -0.96%

-$38 -0.27%

-$173 -1.13%

-$112 -0.58%

-$102 TRUCKS -0.64%

Model Years: 2010-2016, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 11/30/18 to 12/7/18

Used Sedan Values Declined Last Week

? Volume-weighted, overall car segment values decreased by 0.72% last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.57% on average during the prior 4-week period.

? In car segments, the Full-Size Car, Mid-Size Car, Sub-Compact Car and Sporty Car experienced the biggest drops.

? Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by 0.64% last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.49% on average during the prior 4-week period.

? In truck segments, the Minivan and Small Pickup segments performed the worst.

December 10, 2018

Sentiment from the Auction Lanes

Our editors and personnel attend several auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: "Supply is still low. Trade-ins are down for dealers so they are buying at the auction in order to maintain inventory." Tim in IN "Dealers were prepared to buy and did just that which resulted in a 70% sales percentage for the auction." Gene in PA "Fewer no-sales which indicates more realistic floors are being considered and set by the sellers." Mark in CA "The big consignors said that they were happy as the money ranged from good to very good." Bob in MA

Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index Updated with Nov, 2018 Data

135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100

95 90 85

Source: Black Book Visual Analytics

The Black Book Index for November saw a 0.2% gain from the previous month, and the Index has now increased for each of the last seven months. Cars and sedans continue to outperform many truck segments in the Index, as many used car models offer great value for shoppers looking for affordable alternatives to new cars that are offered at high sticker prices with increasing interest rates.

Vehicle Highlight

The All-New 2019 Audi Q8 is the latest addition to Audi's Crossover SUV lineup. Equipped with a Turbocharged 3.0L V6 engine capable of 335 hp and 369 lb-ft of torque, this Full-Size Luxury Crossover SUV has similar dimensions to its sevenpassenger brother, the Q7, while only being offered as a five passenger SUV. MSRP for the Q8 starts at $68,395 and its main competition includes the BMW X6, Mercedes-Benz GLE, and the Land Rover Range Rover Sport.

This week's report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.

2

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS

December 10, 2018

All Eyes Turn Towards Scottsdale in January

"As we enter the final month of 2018, it seems that all anybody can talk about are the upcoming auctions in Scottsdale in January. Silver kicks things off on the 10th, Barrett-Jackson gets things started in earnest on the 12th, and Worldwide, Bonhams, Gooding, Russo and Steele, and RM Sotheby's begin their previews mid-week with their main events starting towards the end of the week and running through the weekend."

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50%

Segment Percent Change from Nov to Dec 2018

0.77%

0.67%

-0.18%

0.08%

-1.00%

-1.50%

Muscle Cars

-1.12% Pony Cars American Classics Sports Cars

-1.00%

Exotic Cars

Classic Trucks

? Mecum's Las Vegas auction did very well, bringing in just over $25,000,000 on the sale of 667 collectible vehicles out of 885 offered (75%). The featured collection was from the Academy of Art University.

? Silverstone's NEC Classic Motor Show Sale, in Birmingham, England, saw a total of $5,400,000 in sales. Most notable were vehicles formerly owned by Frank Sinatra (RR Corniche) and Steve McQueen (1945 Jeep).

? Bonham's Padua, Italy auction was a successful sophomore outing, with 32 of 60 vehicles being declared sold. The auction featured mainly mid-priced European models from the 1960s through the 1980s.

Notable Recent Auction Sales Include:

"Sinatra" Corniche. Courtesy of Silverstone.

1930 Bugatti Type 46 $1,000,000 (Mecum) 1930 Duesenberg Model J Phaeton $770,000 (Mecum) 1934 Packard Super 8 Sport Phaeton $258,000 (Mecum) 1959 Mercedes Benz 300D Cabriolet $245,000 (Mecum) 1970 Plymouth Hemi Cuda Coupe $220,000 (Mecum) 1999 Lamborghini Diablo VT Roadster $185,000 (Mecum) 1984 Rolls Royce Corniche Conv Sinatra $185,000 (Silverstone) 1945 Willys Jeep $110,000 McQueen (Silverstone) 1960 Ferrari 250 GT Series II Coupe $580,000 (Bonhams) 1969 Citroen DS 21 Convertible $145,000 (Bonhams)

3

SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES

December 10, 2018

RV Values Back Off As Colder Weather Approaches

"The average selling price of motorized units at auction last month dropped roughly nine percent, which sounds significant, but if you exclude September's unexpected price spike, the drop is really only about one and a half percent from two months ago, which would be expected going into colder weather. Trailer values have fallen off a decent amount from their summer highs, but it's nothing that is unexpected for the time of year."

Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets

55000 50000

Motor Home Value Trends

45000

40000

35000

30000

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct

For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) ? Average selling price was $43,729, down $4,540 (9.4%) from the previous month ? One year ago, the average selling price was $49,211 ? Auction volume was up 3% from the previous month. The average model year was 2011.

16000

Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends

15000

14000

13000

12000

11000

10000

9000

For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels) ? Average selling price was $13,052, down $887 (6.3%) from the previous month ? One year ago, the average selling price was $12,585 ? Auction volume was down 16% from the previous month. The average model year was 2010.

4

Jan-14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct

SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS

December 10, 2018

Powersports Market Gets Ready For Colder Weather

"With the Holiday Season officially upon us, the Powersports market has entered its typical winter slowdown. The changes in value this month are fairly moderate considering the time of year, with most segments only down a percent or so."

Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor

1.5%

Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change November to December 2018

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5%

-0.9% -0.9% -0.9%

1.3% -0.2%

-0.6%

-0.9%

-1.6%

-1.3% -1.9%

-1.4% -1.7%

? Snowmobiles are the only segment up this month, but their increase of only 1.3 percent is a rather modest bump heading into winter. They will likely jump a bit next month, especially if we get the early blast of winter that many forecasters are calling for.

? The off-road segments got hit a little harder this month relative to their on-road counterparts. This represents a bit of leveling out versus last month, where the off-road vehicles outperformed the overall market.

? One interesting item is that both the Domestic V-Twins and the Metric cruisers are down exactly the same amount. Normally one of these two sub-segments does a bit better than the other, but not this month.

? With all the segments except Snowmobiles being down, one item worth mentioning is the overall degree of change from month to month. The changes in value are fairly moderate, continuing a trend that has been going on for several years now. The seasonal swings in Powersports values still follow the same patterns as in times past, but in a much more subdued manner, and this appears to be the new normal.

5

SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY

The Demand for Used Trucks Remains Strong through

November

"New Truck Sales over the past few months were the highest since June of

2015."

Charles Cathey ? Heavy-Duty Truck and Commercial Trailer Editor

Monthly Change

$0 -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700 -$800

Average Wholesale Value Changes

December 10, 2018

Construction/Vocational

Over the Road Trucks & Tractors

Regional Tractors

? More used trucks are needed to satisfy the growing demand for both long haul and regional delivery needs. ? Franchised Dealers, Independent Dealers, and other Used Truck Sales Venues need to find more inventory

to take care of their customer's used truck needs. ? New Truck orders are starting to be delivered as truck components that have been in short supply are

becoming available. We're watching this trend to see how it impacts Used Truck needs and values as we enter 2019.

DATE

Construction/Vocational

Over the Road Trucks & Tractors

Regional Tractors

Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change

MODEL YEARS

12/01/18 96,520

-141

-0.1% 77,783

-243

-0.3% 69,479

-276

-0.4% 2016-2017

11/01/18 96,661

-201

-0.2% 78,026

-258

-0.3% 69,754

-192

-0.3% 2016-2017

? 2016-2017 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $ 141 (0.1%) in November, compared to the

average decline of $201 (0.2%) in October.

? 2016-2017 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $243 (0.3%) in November, compared to the

average drop of $258 (0.3%) in October.

? 2016-2017 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $276 (0.4%) in November, compared to the average

depreciation of $192 (0.3%) in October.

Construction/Vocational

Over the Road Trucks & Tractors

Regional Tractors

MODEL

DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change

YEARS

12/01/18 49,453

-74

-0.1% 33,858

-131

-0.4% 26,821

-128

-0.5% 2008-2015

11/01/18 49,527

-223

-0.4% 33,990

-196

-0.6% 26,949

-153

-0.6% 2008-2015

? 2008-2015 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $74 (0.1%) in November, compared to the

$223 (0.4%) in October.

? 2008-2015 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $131 (0.4%) in November, compared to $196

(0.6%) average depreciation in October.

? 2008-2015 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $128 (0.5%) in November, compared to the average

drop of $153 (0.6%) in October.

6

SPECIALTY MARKETS: MEDIUM DUTY

Medium Duty Trucks Remain Stable Through the End of 2018

"Demand is consistently increasing for units in these segments as scarcity in used supply continues to be an issue for some segments." Josh Giles ? Senior Truck Editor

December 10, 2018

DATE 12/01/18 11/01/18

Value 49,543 49,700

Medium Duty

$ Change % Change

-157

-0.3%

-196

-0.4%

MODEL YEARS 2016-2017 2016-2017

DATE 12/01/18 11/01/18

Value 21,544 21,631

Medium Duty

$ Change % Change

-87

-0.4%

-46

-0.2%

MODEL YEARS 2008-2015

2008-2015

? Late Models (2016 ? 2017) dropped an overall weighted average of $157 (-0.3%) in November. This is an improvement over the $196 (0.4%) drop witnessed in October.

? Older Models (2008 ? 2015) dropped an overall weighted average of $87 (0.4%) in October. This is an increase over the $46 (0.2%) drop we saw in October.

+$200 +$100

$0 -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700

Oct '17

CHANGES IN WHOLESALE VALUE MODEL YEARS 2014 TO 2016

Jan '18 CLASS 4 CAB/CHASSIS CLASS 7 CAB/CHASSIS

Apr '18

Jul '18

Oct '18

CLASS 5 CAB/CHASSIS LIGHT-DUTY PICKUP TRUCKS

CLASS 6 CAB/CHASSIS

? We saw a slight drop in wholesale prices on class 4 units this past month due to the increased supply of box trucks in this segment.

? Units in Classes 5 through 7 continue to stabilize due to limited supply of good used trucks and an increase in demand across the country.

? New truck sales remain strong and are expected to continue increasing through the first quarter of 2019. However, this does not translate into increased used supply. Fleets are keeping units in rotation longer than ever because of improved quality and efficiency.

Diesel Price Changes

10/15/18 +$0.61

+$0.01

10/22/18 +$0.58

-$0.01

10/29/18 +$0.54

-$0.03

11/05/18 +$0.46

-$0.02

11/12/18 +$0.40

-$0.02

11/19/18 +$0.37

-$0.04

+$1.00 +$0.50 +$0.00 -$0.50

Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year

1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043| 1.866.452.1400 | info@

Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at

7

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download