SEMINAR ON THE RELEVANCE OF POPULATION ASPECTS …



[pic]

29 July 2010

English

MALAWI NATIONAL SEMINAR ON CENSUS DATA ANALYSIS

Blantyre, Malawi

19-22 July 2010

Report

table of conte nts

table of conte nts 2

Objective of the National Seminar 3

Attendance 3

Opening of the Seminar 3

Introduction to the Census Analyses Project 3

Introduction to the Seminar 4

Fertility Analysis 4

fertilty measurement by the P/F Ratio Methods 5

Analyzing Census Data on Age at First Marriage 5

Introduction to CensusInfo 6

General Discussion on Critical Gender Issues in Malawi in the Context of Development 7

Discussion on future plans 7

Closing 9

Annex I: Agenda 10

annex II: list of participants 13

Objective of the National Seminar

1. The Malawi National Seminar on Census Data Analysis was held in Blantyre, Malawi from 19 to 22 July 2010. The main objective of the national seminar is to provide an opportunity for the staff member of the Malawi National Statistical Office in collaboration with the University of Malawi Population Studies Centre, to further collaborate on the analysis of data from the 2008 census of Malawi on selected topics. The national seminar will cover the following topics: (i) fertility and nuptiality from a gender perspective; (ii) fertility indices based on data from the 2008 census; (iii) measures of nuptiality based on data from the 2008 census: and (iv) and use of the CensusInfo software for data presentation and dissemination. See Annex I for Seminar agenda.

Attendance

2. The Malawi National Seminar on Census Data Analysis was attended by 23 participants (see Annex II) of whom 13 were from the Malawi National Statistical Office, four from the University of Malawi, two from the UNFPA office in Malawi, and four represented UNSD.

Opening of the Seminar

3. Keiko Osaki Tomita, Chief, Demographic and Social Statistics Branch, delivered an opening remarks on behalf of the UN Statistics Division (UNSD). At the outset, she expressed appreciation for Ms. Mercy Kanyuka, Deputy Commission, and Malawi National Statistics Office (MNSO) for co-organizing the seminar with UNSD. She also thanked the participants for their commitment to the Seminar, despite their busy schedule. Indeed, it is very busy time for the MNSO, as they are currently heavily engaged in census data anlalyses and the enumeration of DHS data at the same time.

4. Ms. Osaki Tomita described the vital role of the United Nations in advancing the global statistical system. UNSD not only collects, compiles and disseminates statistical information worldwide, but are also responsible for the development of international standards for statistical methods, definitions, classifications of data. Technical cooperation to strengthen the capacity of national statistical systems also constitutes an important element of the Division’s work. UNSD also leads the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses in which all but eight countries of the world participate.

5. She reminded the participants that a population and housing census is usually the largest statistical activity that a country undertakes. The important roles that census data play for planning, policy-making, and administrative and research purposes cannot be overemphasized. But in order for census data be truly useful, the data have to be fully analyzed and widely disseminated. In this connection, she wished that the seminar would provide an excellent opportunity for participants to enhance their knowledge-base for census analyses. She closed the statement wishing a great success in their deliberations.

Introduction to the Census Analyses Project

6. Ms. Keiko Osaki Tomita explained the objectives of the seminar in the context of the project which UNSD had been implementing. In January 2010, UNSD launched a three-year project entitled “:Strengthening National Capacity to Analyse, Present and Disseminate Census Data for Evidence-based Policy Making”, with a financial support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project aims to promote higher level of analysis and better dissemination of census data in support of evidence-based decision making.

7. Organizing national seminar on selected topics where in-depth analyses are needed is one of core activities to be implemented under the project. The first national seminar on census analyses was held in Egypt in May 2010 and the present one in Malawi was the second in a series. Such thematic seminars are expected to take place in nine African countries. Ms. Osaki Tomita acknowledged that two topics – fertility and nuptiality – selected for the seminar by MNSO were of critical importance in Malawi, hence merit deeper analyses. Participants were reminded that they were eventually expected to produce analytical reports, using the knowledge and skills acquired during the seminar.

8. Ms Osaki Tomita then introduced Dr. Griffith Feeney who would provide lectures on the advanced techniques of estimating fertility and nuptiality during the seminar, and Dr. Jerry Banda who would lecture on how to prepare analytical reports, and lead the discussion on future plans.

Introduction to the Seminar

9. Dr. Griffith Feeney provided an introduction to the seminar in terms of what was to be covered in the area of measurement of fertility and nuptiality. He explained that the objective of the seminar was to be very practical—to engage in analysis of population census data with the aim of understanding errors and omissions and extracting the best possible information on fertility and nuptiality for the use of participants in finalizing their thematic report on these subjects for the 2008 census. He elaborated that the seminar would of course cover various demographic methods along the way, as they are used to conduct the analysis. He emphasized, however, that the tools only help us with the work. The work that is done using the tools is data analysis, used in the sense of John W. Tukey’s 1997 book Exploratory Data Analysis.

Fertility Analysis

10. Dr. Griffith Feeney presented on various methods of fertility analysis. The session on reverse survival estimation began with a brief review of basic fertility measures, including the crude birth rate (CBR), age-specific birth rates (ASBRs), the total fertility rate (TFR), and the mean age at childbearing (MAC).

11. Reverse survival estimation is one of the oldest, but also one of the most underutilized methods for estimating fertility from population census data. The explanation for its under utilization may lie with the United Nations Population Divison’s Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation, in which reverse survival is presented only for estimation of the crude birth rate for 10 years prior to the census. This session introduced a far more general approach to reverse survival that provides total fertility rates as well as crude birth rates, and for up to 40 years prior to the census date. Total fertility rates are far more useful than crude birth rates, and the longer retrospective period allows comparison with estimates from prior censuses, which is invaluable as a test of data quality and the accuracy of the estimates.

12. The presentation of the reverse survival method begins with the use of stationary population concepts to solve reverse survival problems. A simple example of a reverse survival problem is: Given the number of persons 0-4 years old at the time of a census, how do we estimate the number of births during the five years prior to the census. The calculation requires life table “big Lx” values, which generally have to be estimated, but the results are robust against departures of assumed from actual life table values.

13. Once numbers of births during five year periods prior to the census have been estimated, the female age distribution is reverse survived to get the age distribution of reproductive age females at five year intervals prior to the census. Combining information on numbers of births, the age distribution of reproductive age women, and an age pattern of mortality gives estimates of total fertility rates. The age pattern of fertility may come from any number of sources, including census data on births to women during the year prior to the census or data from a recent Demographic and Health Survey. The total fertility estimates are robust against departures of assumed from actual age patterns.

14. A powerful advantage of the reverse survival method is that it requires as input only the age-sex distribution of the population. This information is available from virtually every population census, and for most countries of the world it is available for a series of past censuses. The example presented in the seminar compared reverse survival estimates of total fertility for India from the censuses of 1951, 1961, 1971, 1981 and 1991. Because estimates are produced for the 40 years prior to each census, each pair of censuses provides a 30 year overlap of estimates. The consistency of estimates from successive censuses provides a reliable diagnostic of the quality of the estimates.

15. The quality of reverse survival estimates depends first and foremost on the quality of the census age-sex distributions. Problematic age-sex distributions are quickly revealed by examination of reverse survival estimates derived from them, so that reverse survival provides a means of assessing the quality of age-sex distributions as well as a method of estimating the level and trend of total fertility. In some cases, knowledge of the likely trend of fertility, deriving either from estimates produce from other data or general empirical regularities, is used to correct errors in age-sex distributions.

fertilty measurement by the P/F Ratio Methods

16. The session on P/F ratio methods began by introducing the general idea of the methods, which is to estimate the level of fertility from census data on average numbers of children ever born to young women by using information on the age pattern of fertility derived from reports on numbers of children born to women during the 12 months prior to the census.

17. There are numerous variants of the P/F ratio method, which was invented by William Brass, but all of them depend on either or both of two basic propositions of formal demography. The first proposition is that, if we know the age-specific fertility rates experienced by a cohort of women, we can calculate the mean number of children ever born to these women at any point in time. The second proposition is that the total fertility of any birth cohort of women estimates the period total fertility rate at the time members of this cohort reach the mean age at childbearing for the cohort.

18. Several variants of the P/F ratio method were presented and illustrated with Malawi data from the 1998 and 2008 population censuses. Several of the newer variants involve use of the relational Gompertz model for the age pattern of fertility. The relational Gompertz model was defined, a simple computer spreadsheet technique for fitting the model to data was introduced, and the fits to data from the 2008 population census of Malawi illustrated.

Analyzing Census Data on Age at First Marriage

19. The sessions on analyzing census data on age at first marriage and nuptiality tables began with a brief review of life table concepts, including three basic “columns” of the life table, the probabilities ([pic]) column, the survival ([pic]) column, and the frequency distribution ([pic]) column, and the idea that life table concepts and methods may be applied not just to deaths, but to demographic events of all kinds—including first marriage.

20. The source data and tabulations used for calculating nuptiality statistics include (a) a tabulation of ever married persons by sex, age at census in single years, and age at first marriage in single years and (b) a tabulation of total population by sex and single years of age. The total population is required to obtain numbers of never married persons, which are essential to the calculations because the define exposure to the risk of marriage.

21. The simplest approach to age at first marriage statistics from these tables is to first calculate period mean age at first marriage based on numbers of first marriages. The calculation is trivial, requiring nothing but the definition of mean from elementary statistics, once the cells in the census tabulation have been suitably rearranged, but the rearrangement turns out to be moderately complicated, requiring some patience to construct a suitable computer spreadsheet.

22. Though most simply calculated, mean age at first marriage based on numbers of first marriages is also the least satisfactory indicator of age at first marriage because numbers of marriages of younger women are typically far greater than numbers of marriages of older women simply because the population age distributions are “young,” with large numbers of persons at young ages and much smaller numbers at older ages.

23. To control for the bias created by the population age distribution, mean ages at first marriages are computer from marriage frequencies, numbers of first marriages at age x to women a cohort age y at the time of the census divided by the total number of women in the cohort. This again is a simple calculation, though spreadsheet implementation is slightly complicated due to the large size of the table—if calculations are made for persons ages 15-79, there are over 4,000 cells in each table.

24. Examination of the time series of mean ages at first marriage computed from marriage frequencies computer from the 2008 census data for Malawi shows that the series is unsatisfactory because the calculation fails to control for the changing composition of cohorts by marital status. Since only single women are “at risk” of first marriage, the most appropriate way to calculate a mean age at first marriage is to calculate a “nuptiality table” based on “probabilities” of first marriage in the life table sense of the word.

25. Unlike the situation with life tables, in which probabilities must first be estimated from age-specific death rates, the census tabulations noted above provide for direct calculation of first marriage probabilities. The idea of the calculation is simple and simply illustrated though a full spreadsheet implementation is moderately complicated. Seminar participants were provided with a spreadsheet implementing all of the calculations.

Introduction to CensusInfo

26. The presentation on “Introduction to CensusInfo” was delivered by Margaret Mbogoni. The objective of the presentation was to give an overview of the CensusInfo software within the context of the United Nations 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme. The presentation summarized the essential goals of the 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme as well as related census activities being undertaken by the United Nations Statistics Division. In this context, it was mentioned that the Division is undertaking activities to assist countries to disseminate their census results.

27. Activities that are undertaken by the UNSD to enhance countries’ ability to disseminate results of their censuses include the project “Strengthening national capacity to analyze, present and disseminate data for evidence-based policy making”. Specific activities within the project include, holding of national seminars on census data analysis and also writing of thematic reports based on census data, in participating countries. In addition to this project, the UNSD is also organizing regional seminars on dissemination and analysis of data and is also planning to host an expert group meeting on strategies and technology for census data dissemination. It is anticipated that from the outcome of the regional seminars and of the expert group meeting, UNSD will compile and disseminate good national practices on strategies and technology for census data dissemination.

28. The presenter further informed the audience that UNSD, in partnership with UNICEF and UNFPA has developed a software for census data dissemination called CensusInfo. This software is available for free on-line and UNSD is carrying out regional workshops as well as on-sight technical support to countries to enable them to create national adaptations of CensusInfo. It was mentioned that CensusInfo is a tool for disseminating population and housing census results on the web and on CD-ROM. It generates user-defined tables, graphs, maps and reports at different geographic levels, and with accompanying metadata. Furthermore, CensusInfo can be customized to meet country-specific needs in terms of tables and indicators to be generated. Another feature of CensusInfo, it was mentioned, is its ability to import data from other software applications, such as CSPro, SAS, SPSS and Redatam.

29. In the presentation it was also mentioned that UNSD maintains a website on the 2010 World Population and Housing Census Programme on which there is a webpage on CensusInfo. The presentation also offered information on Global CensusInfo which is a UNSD adaptation of CensusInfo to census tables and indicators based on data that the Division collects from countries as part of the Demographic Yearbook System. The audience was informed that initially, Global CensusInfo will contain data from the 2000 round of population and housing censuses with data from the 2010 round being added as they become available.

General Discussion on Critical Gender Issues in Malawi in the Context of Development

30. In view of that MNSO will be producing an analytical report on gender by using census data, this session aimed to have an open discussion on the critical gender issues in the country so that the common understanding of the issues could be forged. Ms. Osaki Tomita started the session by re-visiting the concept of gender issues and the usefulness of producing gender statistics. Gender statistics provide separate data for women and men across many dimensions of life, revealing differences and relationships between them. Participants were reminded of the difference of the concepts between “sex” and “gender”, which were often used interchangeably.

31. Ms. Osaki Tomita introduced some data from the 1998 Malawi Population and Housing Census and asked the participants to identify where gender gaps existed in the socio-cultural context of Malawi. Participants pointed out that girls in the country were still disadvantaged in terms of school enrolment and the gap were more evident in rural areas. It was found that over 90 per cent of economically active women in the country were engaged in agriculture, animal husbandry or forestry. Participants were of the view that the figure reflected the industrial structure of the country and did not necessary mean the discrimination against women. Service sector and production sector where women could be employed are still very much under-developed in the country. A participant mentioned that women generally comprised a small proportion in decision-making positions, especially in the Parliament. The country also has a high maternal mortality and many women lose their life from complications related to pregnancy or delivery of child.

32. At the end of the session, Ms. Osaki Tomita mentioned that National Gender Policy, developed by Malawi Ministry of Gender, Child Welfare and Community Services, had been already in place. The policy has a focus on the following six dimensions: education, reproductive health, food/nutritional security, environment, human right, and poverty/economic empowerment.

Discussion on future plans

33. Dr. Jeremiah Banda gave a brief presentation on “technical writing” aimed at helping seminar participants to write technically sound thematic reports on selected census topics. It was emphasized that good thematic reports would add value to census results. It was pointed out, in the presentation, that a thematic report should have the following parts: an introduction; the purpose/objective; coverage and nature of information included in the report; methodology of the adopted in the census; and a summary.

34. It was underscored that there was need to effectively communicate with users of the census results, through the in-depth analytical thematic reports. Always keeping in mind the type of audience the report was going to address. The thematic report should provide sufficient and explained information. The introduction of the report must be brief while details have to be included in the body of the report. A statement of purpose of the report should give a clear indication of the way the results are meant to be used. It is also necessary that the report should present some literature review of previous studies related to the topic. In this way readers of the thematic report would be reminded of previous studies on related topics.

35. It is advisable to indicate, in the report, the coverage, date and duration of the study, in this case the census enumeration, including eligibility and type of information collected. It is helpful for some readers to discuss the methodology used in data collection and analysis including assumptions. Depending on the audience the report formulas may be included otherwise an Appendix would be the right place for sophisticated detailed information on methodology. The discussion of results constitutes a major part of the report as such discussion reveals what the results suggest. In addition, in presenting the results the use of standard tables with proper headings and well labeled rows and columns should be the norm. Charts and graphs may be included in the report to assist readers to easily comprehend some results. It is also advisable to include, in the thematic report, an assessment of the quality of data. It should be pointed out that quality assessment enhances confidence, of users, in the results.

36. A Thematic report should present balanced and objective analysis and presentation of the subject under consideration. Subjectivity or personal judgment/bias should, in no way, dictate the interpretation of census findings. It is always good practice to give a summary and interpretation of the main issues raised in the report. However, the summary should be brief and to the point. Some very technical reports include abstracts.

37. In the discussions which ensued, with respect to technical report writing, the following issues came to light:

i) It was emphasized that thematic reports should be clear and to the point.

ii) Despite being a technical thematic report, it should be useful to decision makers in the country, in this regard, a summary is very necessary. The summary has to focus on conclusions and implications pertinent to the study.

iii) On the issue of subjective interpretation of study findings, a school of thought was advanced which argued that at times subjective interpretation was necessary as it gave the context of the study by incorporating personal values of society. In this case, it was posited, that subjectivity would help in the interpretation of results. It was, however, clarified that with respect to technical report writing, subjectivity had to be avoided as it pertained to biased interpretation of results.

iv) In general, it was recognized by seminar participants that a good and well written thematic report would be an indispensable part of the dissemination strategy of the 2008 Malawi census results.

38. In terms of the way forward:

i) It was emphasized that thematic reports, on fertility, mortality, gender and on other topics should be produced on a timely basis to the benefit of the country and some of the reports would be associated with the current project of enhancing in-depth analysis of census data.

ii) A need was expressed to tap the project resources in advancing thematic report writing on various topics and their subsequent publication.

iii) Study visits to countries, which had successfully written and produced in-depth thematic reports would be supported, under the project, if request will be made. In the discussion which ensued some participants advocated for short term training courses, in relevant areas, to enhance analytical capacity of staff involved in thematic report writing. Suggested training institutions included the US Bureau of the census (Statistical training Centre). By attending such courses, it was argued that staff would master some of the sophisticated techniques relevant to the in-depth analysis of some thematic topics. It was, however, pointed out that this was a unique request which would warrant further exploration as it was not envisaged in the project.

iv) The UNSD representative informed the seminar that technical assistance will be offered to NSO in the form of a technical workshop on CensusInfo. This would take place sometime in November. The workshop will cover techniques pertinent to the finalization of the current census database including its updating.

v) A special request was made for the project to support the printing of some thematic reports.

vi) In addition, the following areas were identified as some of the areas requiring technical assistance:

- Population projections

- Analysis of data on the elderly and

- CensusInfo

vii) The thematic analytical reports to be produced by the NSO will cover: mortality; fertility; economic characteristics. migration; marital status and nuptiality; household and housing conditions, women; children and youth; aging population and the elderly; disability; water and sanitation; education; population projections; and census implementation and methodology.

viii) The following schedule of the production of thematic reports was announced in the seminar. Thematic reports on Fertility and Mortality are currently being finalized. Reports on education, literacy, and the elderly will ready by September 2010. The rest of the draft thematic reports will be ready by the end of the year. It was, however, pointed out that the thematic report on projections would be preceded by the migration report.

ix) In conclusion the representative of UNSD reiterated the commitment of the Division in collaborating with the NSO on, specific topics, under the project “Strengthening national capacity to analyse, present and disseminate data for evidence-based policy making.” She, however, called for further discussions between UNSD and the NSO of Malawi on the same.

Closing

39. Ms. Osaki Tomita Keiko made official remarks at the end of seminar. She thanked the participants for their serious engagement in the past four days, and acknowledged that their commitment and close interactions enriched the seminar. She urged that the knowledge they gained be shared with other staff of MNSO upon their return. She also expressed her deep appreciation to two lecturers who guided the seminar in a skillful manner. She then officially closed the seminar.

Annex I: Agenda

ORGANIZATION OF WORK

Monday, 19 July 2010

Morning Session 9:00 – 12:00

Opening Session

• Opening remarks by Mr. Charles Machinjili, Director, Malawi National Statistical Office

• Opening remarks by Ms. Keiko Osaki Tomita, Chief, Demographics and Social Statistics Branch, United Nations Statistics Division

• Introduction of participants

Coffee break

Session I: Introduction to the Project (Keiko Osaki Tomita, UNSD)

Introduction to the Seminar (Griffith Feeney)

Session II: Fertility Analysis

• Fertility levels in the context of socio-economic development (Angela Msosa, Malawi NSO)

• Basic measures of fertility (CBR, ASFR, TFR, CEB, etc.)

• Estimating fertility from census age-sex distributions (reverse survival estimation, etc)

Lunch break

Afternoon Session 1:30 – 5:00

Session II: Fertility Analysis (continued)

Tuesday, 20 July 2010

Morning Session 9:00 – 12:00

Session II: Fertility Analysis (continued)

• Other methods of fertility estimation (P/F ratio, etc)

Lunch break

Afternoon Session 1:30 – 5:00

Session II: Fertility Analysis (continued)

• Recap of points covered in Session II

Wednesday, 21 July 2010

Morning Session 9:00 – 12:00

Session III: Nuptiality Analysis

• Basic nuptiality measures (age at first marriage, mean age at first marriage, median age at first marriage, etc)

• Exercises

Lunch break

Afternoon Session 1:30-5:00

Session III: Nuptiality Analysis (continued)

• Introduction to Period Nuptiality Tables

Thursday, 22 July 2010

Morning Session 9:00 – 12:00

Session III: Nuptiality Analysis (continued)

• Recap of points covered in Session III

Lunch break

Afternoon Session 1:30-5:00

Session IV: Introduction to CensusInfo (Margaret Mbogoni, UNSD)

Session V: General discussion on gender issues in Malawi in the context of socio-economic development (Keiko Osaki Tomita, UNSD)

Session VI: Discussion on future plans (Jeremiah Banda, consultant)

Closing Session

annex II: list of participants

|Malawi National Statistics Office, University of Malawi and UNFPA, Malawi |

|No |Contact Person Information |

| |Ms. Angela Msosa |

| |Chief Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Shelton Kanyanda |

| |Chief Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mrs. Mylen Mahobe |

| |Principal Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Simeon Yosefe |

| |Principal Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Ms. Tiope Mleme |

| |Senior Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Timothy M’manga |

| |Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Medson Makwemba |

| |Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Blignaut Joshua Kadam’manja |

| |Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Ms. Maggie Kalino |

| |Statistician |

| |Mr. Richard Phiri |

| |Statistician |

| |Mr. Malawi Yute |

| |Senior Statistician |

| |National Statistics Office |

| |Mr. Jelisat Dalitso Chabwera |

| |Statistician |

| |Mr. Andrew Jamali |

| |Agriculture Statistics Division |

| |Mr. Lawrence Kazembe |

| |Associate Professor |

| |Chancellor College |

| |University of Malawi |

| |Mr. Benjamin Kaneka |

| |Lecturer in Demography |

| |Chancellor College |

| |University of Malawi |

| |Mr. Jesman Chintsanya |

| |Lecturer |

| |Department of Population Studies |

| |Chancellor College |

| |University of Malawi |

| |Mr. George Mandere |

| |Lecturer |

| |Department of Population Studies |

| |Chancellor College |

| |University of Malawi |

| |Mr. Jason Onsembe |

| |UNFPA |

| |CTA, Malawi Census |

| |Mr. Thomas Chataghalala Munthali |

| |Population and Development Officer |

| |UNFPA |

|United Nations Statistics Division |

| |Ms. Keiko Osaki-Tomita |

| |Chief |

| |Demographic and Social Statistics Branch |

| |United Nations Statistics Division |

| |Ms. Margaret Mbogoni |

| |Statistician |

| |Demographic Statistics Section |

| |Demographic and Social Statistics Branch |

| |United Nations Statistics Division |

| |Dr. Jeremiah Banda |

| |Consultant |

| |United Nations Statistics Division |

| |Dr. Griffith Feeney |

| |Consultant |

| |United Nations Statistics Division |

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