THE FUTURE OF WORK? WORK OF THE FUTURE!

THE FUTURE OF WORK? WORK OF THE FUTURE!

On how artificial intelligence, robotics and automation are transforming jobs

and the economy in Europe

A report by Michel Servoz

`Don't panic'

These words are written in large letters on the cover to the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy (Douglas Adams, 1979)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am deeply indebted to Nikolay Stoyanov for all his help and hard work on every aspect of my mission: organization, briefings and obviously this report.

I am very grateful to Roberto Viola and many colleagues in DG CNECT for their thoughtful suggestions and their help to put this report in this final form. I would like to thank the members of cabinet of the President, Vice-Presidents Ansip, Dombrovskis and Katainen and Commissioner Gabriel, who kindly took the time to read the draft report and provide precious comments. The EPSC provided a base to work from, and help in this process, which proved essential in all respects. I would like to particularly thank Isabelle Askolovitch in this regard.

This mission gave me the opportunity to meet many stakeholders whom I cannot thank enough for their availability and openness.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................4 Chapter 1 ? Setting the stage ...............................................................................................................................10 Chapter 2 ? How automation is changing the economy ................................................................21 Chapter 3 ? AI, robotics and the impact on labour markets .....................................................35 Chapter 4 ? Labour market transformations and education ....................................................56 Chapter 5 ? Fostering AI ecosystems in Europe ...................................................................................76 Chapter 6 ? Renewing the organisation of work and addressing societal implications ....................................................................................................................................................93 Chapter 7 ? Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 119 Chapter 8 ? Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................... 135 Bibliography....................................................................................................................................................................... 137 Annex I ? AI strategies in selected Member State and non-EU countries .................. 139 Annex II ? Exchange of views with the social partners .............................................................. 150

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.

INTRODUCTION

Sources: Business Insider, US National Archives, George Grantham Bain Collection.

We are used to thinking about artificial intelligence (AI) in the future tense, speculating how technological developments in this area will affect us. While we use (too much of) our energy trying to figure out what to expect in the future, we sometimes miss the point that AI and robotisation have already started transforming our daily lives. The markets for robotics and AI are growing fast. Recent forecasts suggest that global spending on robots will be USD 188 billion in 2020, up from less than half that amount in 2016. By 2025, the worldwide AI market is forecasted to grow to USD 59 billion, a significant increase from the USD 1.8 billion spent in 2016. While the extensive uptake of AI and robotics is likely to generate higher productivity growth, which is urgently needed in ageing societies, it will also bring certain challenges. What do recent technological developments in AI and robotisation foreshadow for the future of work? Should you be worried or excited? Which jobs will be destroyed and which new ones created? Who will help you if you lose your job due to automation? What is the role that education systems, businesses, governments and social partners have to play in managing the upcoming societal transitions? These are some of the questions this report will try to answer. Consider these examples, which illustrate the extent to which AI is already changing our lives. In your smartphone, an effective personal assistant is hidden (Siri). She is the amicable voice-activated assistant that we interact with daily. She adds events to our calendars, helps us find information, sends messages on our behalf and gives us directions. Siri is a digital personal assistant. She uses machine learning technology to better predict and understand our natural language requests and questions. Do you still need a secretary?

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