Air Force Strategy Study 2020–2030 - U.S. Department of Defense
Air Force Strategy Study 2020?2030
John A. Shaud, PhD General, USAF, Retired Director of Air Force Research Institute
Air University Press Air Force Research Institute Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama
January 2011
Muir S. Fairchild Research Information Center Cataloging Data Shaud, John A.
Air Force strategy study 2020-2030 / John A. Shaud. p. ; cm.
Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-158566-210-4 1. Military planning--United States. 2. United States--Air Force--Forecasting. 3. Strategic planning--United States--Military aspects. 4. United States--Air Force--Operational readiness. 5. National security--United States-- Forecasting. 6. Technological innovations--United States--Forecasting. I. Title.
358.41/684--dc22
Disclaimer This study is a product of the Air Force Research Institute and represents an academic effort in response to a request from the chief of staff of the Air Force. The report's contents reflect the opinions of the authors and do not represent official Air Force views. The Air Force Research Institute stood up within Air University, Air Education and Training Command, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, on 19 May 2008. Comments or questions concerning this study or other research can be sent to
Director Air Force Research Institute 155 N. Twining St., Bldg. 693 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6026
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Contents
Chapter
Page
DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ii
TASKING LETTER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ix
1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2
Supporting Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
2 AIR FORCE CAPABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
Air Force Critical Capabilities, 2020?30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
Power Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
Freedom of Action: Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
Freedom of Action: Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
Freedom of Action: Cyber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Global Situational Awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Air Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Military Support to Civil Authorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3 RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Power Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Freedom of Action: Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Freedom of Action: Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Freedom of Action: Cyber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Global Situational Awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Air Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Military Support to Civil Authorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Power Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Freedom of Action: Air, Space, and Cyber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Global Situational Awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Air Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Military Support to Civil Authorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
iii
CONTENTS
Appendix
Page
A National Interests and Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The National Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Understanding the National Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The National Interest, 2010?30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Summary of National Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Exogenous Shocks in the Geostrategic Environment, 2010?30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
B Futures Research Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Overview of Scenario Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Introduction to Scenario Planning in the USAF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Three Key Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
C 2030 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Scenario 1: Resurgent Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Russia in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Impact on US National Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 The US Air Force's Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Scenario 2: Peer Competitor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 China in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Impact on US National Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 The US Air Force's Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Scenario 3: Failed State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Nigeria in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Impact on US National Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 The US Air Force's Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Scenario 4: Jihadist Insurgency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Zendia in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Impact on US National Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 The US Air Force's Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
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