Unraveling Yields Inefficient Matchings: Evidence from ...
[Pages:6]Online Supplementary Material for
Unraveling Yields Inefficient Matchings:
Evidence from Post-Season College Football Bowls
by
Guillaume Frechette
Alvin E. Roth
M. Utku ?nver
Appendix 1 Table 6. End-of-Regular-Season AP Rankings of Teams that Participated in the Bowls
Year
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Rose Bowl Fiesta Bowl Orange Bowl Sugar Bowl Cotton Bowl
Winner Loser Winner Loser Winner Loser Winner Loser Winner Loser
13 4
8
15
6
2
3
9
5
1
3
5
8
15
4
6
2
1
10
9
3
1
10 26
5
4
2
6
8
7
5 16 10 11
4
2
1
7
9
6
12 13 7
8
1
4
10
2
6
3
5 19 11 12
3
13
2
1
4
6
26 4
14 15
5
1
3
8
7
2
18 6
14 13
4
2
5
11
8
26
13 4
5
7
3
1
8
2
11 16
7
4
2
1
3
9
6
5
11
8
8 16
3
5
2
1
4
6
13 12
11 5
1
3
2
6
4
7
9
8
12 3
5
6
4
1
2
7
8
10
8 17 18 25
1
5
10 26
4
3
2
4
6
10
1
11
18
3
5
9
7
9
6
10
3
11
2
1
5
4
9 14 16 10
1
2
8
3
4
7
2 12
4
26
1
3
7
5
21 26
17 3
1
2
8
6
13
9
7
12
4
2
7
20
6
10
3
1
5
14
1
9
8
21
2
7
3
12
5
20
9
6
1
2
7 18
3
8
20 25
4 22
3
6
8
5
1
2
24 14
4 14
5
10
1
3
2
7
11 21
1
4
2
3
5
6
12
7
10 26
8
7
2
1
5
3
4
16
9
26
1
4
7
8
10
9
2
3
16 21
6 13
5
19
1
2
3
9
15 22
2
1
4
5
3
22
11
8
13 18
1
Table 7. Nielsen Ratings of College Bowls and Super Bowl (%)
Year
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Rose Bowl 22.7 17.7 16.5 10.8 14.6 11.9 15.4 14.3 11.3 18.2 19.2 16.5 17.6 13.3 14.1
14 13.8 11.3 14.3 12.4 21.7
Fiesta Bowl 14.7 24.9 8.7
17 8.8 6.2 7 6.2 7.9 6 18.8 10 5.8 17.2 9.6 10.7 11.3 17.2 8.5 7.4 12.9
Orange Bowl 21.3 16 20.8 12.9 18.5 18.3 11 4 17.8 11.4 12.5 7.8 13.3 8.4 11.4 17.8 9.5 9.7 9.1 13.7 12.3
Sugar Bowl 6.8 8.6 7.9 8.1 7.4 4.9 10.8 18.2 5.2 14.9 6.3 17.9 11.2 11.5 17.5
13 8.6 9.2 14.8 9.5 9
Cotton Bowl 12.7 13.6
10 9.8 7.5 9.4 10.3 10.2 11.3 4.6 5.6 5.6 6.2 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.4 4.3 2.6 3.7
Super Bowl 48.3 45.8 41.9 43.5
39 41.9 40.3 45.1 45.5 41.3 46.0 43.3 44.5 40.2 43.3 40.4 40.4 40.7 41.4 41.1 41.6
2
Table 8: Possibility of creating a match-up between the number 1 and number 2 teams in the AP Sports Writers' Poll rankings in a bowl game:
Regime
Precoalition
Era
Years 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
1984 1985 1986
AP Ranked
No. 1
Texas
Penn State
Ohio State
Georgia Clemson Georgia
Nebraska
BYU
Penn State Miami
Conference
Southwest
independent (at-large)
Big Ten
Southeastern ACC
Southeastern
Big Eight
Western
independent (at-large)
independent (at-large)
AP Ranked No.
2
Oklahoma
Alabama
Alabama Florida State Georgia Penn State
Texas
Oklahoma
Miami Penn State
Conference
Possible to
match?
Actually matched?
Big Eight
NO
-
YES, at
Southeastern Sugar
YES
Bowl
Southeastern NO
-
YES, at
ACC1
Sugar
NO
Bowl
YES, at
Southeastern Sugar
NO
Bowl
independent (at-large)
YES, at Sugar Bowl
YES
Southwest
NO
-
Big Eight
NO
-
independent (at-large)
YES, at Fiesta Bowl
NO
independent (at-large)
YES, at Fiesta Bowl
YES
Why not possible to match / Why not matched? Southwest Conf. champion was pre-
committed to Cotton Bowl and Big Eight champion was precommitted to Orange
Bowl
-
Big Ten champion was pre-committed to Rose Bowl, which was a closed bowl and Southeastern Conf. champion was precommitted to Sugar Bowl
In-season unraveling
In-season unraveling
-
Big Eight champion was pre-committed to Orange
Bowl and Southwest Conf. champion was pre-
committed to Cotton Bowl
Western Conf. champion was pre-committed to Holiday Bowl and Big
Eight champion was precommitted to Orange Bowl
In-season unraveling
-
1 In the pre-coalitions era, although the ACC champion was not an at-large team, escape clauses in the agreement of ACC with the Citrus Bowl made it possible that the ACC champion could play at a different bowl when it had a shot at the national championship.
3
Regime
BC BA BCS
Years 1987 1988 1989 1990
1991
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
AP Ranked
No. 1 Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Colorado
Colorado
Miami
Miami
Florida State Nebraska
Nebraska Florida State Michigan
Tennessee
Florida State Oklahoma Miami
Miami
USC
USC
Conference
Big Eight
independent (at-large)
Big Eight
Big Eight
Big East (atlarge)
Big East (BC)
ACC (BC)
Big Eight (BC)
Big Eight (BA)
ACC (BA)
Big Ten
Southeastern (BCS)
ACC (BCS)
Big Twelve (BCS) Big East (BCS) Big East (BCS)
Pacific Ten (BCS)
Pacific Ten (BCS)
AP Ranked No.
2 Miami
Miami
Miami
Georgia Tech
Washington
Alabama
Nebraska
Penn State
Florida Arizona
State Nebraska Florida
State Virginia
Tech Miami Oregon
Ohio State
LSU
Oklahoma
Conference
independent (at-large)
independent (at-large)
independent (at-large)
ACC
Pacific Ten
Southeastern (BC)
Big Eight (BC)
Big Ten
Southeastern (BA)
Pacific Ten Big Twelve
(BA)
ACC (BCS)
Big East (BCS) Big East (BCS) Pacific Ten (BCS) Big Ten (BCS) Southeastern (BCS) Big Twelve (BCS)
Possible to
match? YES, at Orange Bowl YES, at Fiesta Bowl YES, at Orange Bowl YES, at Orange Bowl
NO
YES, at Sugar Bowl YES, at Orange Bowl
NO
YES, at Fiesta Bowl
NO
NO
YES, at Fiesta Bowl YES, at Sugar Bowl
NO
NO
YES, at Fiesta Bowl
NO
YES, at Orange Bowl
Actually matched?
YES NO NO NO
-
YES YES
YES
YES YES YES YES
Why not possible to match / Why not matched?
-
In-season unraveling
In-season unraveling
In-season unraveling
Pacific Ten champion was pre-committed to Rose
Bowl, which was a closed bowl
-
-
Big Ten was not part of Bowl Coalition
-
Pacific Ten was not part of Bowl Alliance
Big Ten was not part of Bowl Alliance
-
-
AP and BCS rankings differ.
AP and BCS rankings differ.
-
AP and BCS rankings differ.
-
4
Regime Years 2005
AP Ranked
No. 1
USC
Conference
Pacific Ten (BCS)
AP Ranked No.
2
Texas
Conference
Big Twelve (BCS)
Possible to
match?
YES, at Rose Bowl
Actually matched?
YES
Why not possible to match / Why not matched?
-
5
Appendix 3
Table 5.1 replicates the specifications 5, 6, and 7 of Table 5 (in the text) using only the data prior to the formation of the first coalition (in 1992). Over that period, only one bowl for which we have the Nielsen rating had an unranked team playing, hence that bowl is dropped as well as the associated regressors from specifications 5, 6, and 7.
Table 5.2. Estimates of the Determinants of Nielsen Rating of a Bowl: Pre-Coalition
Era
Nielsen Rating of a Bowl
Regressors:
Spec. (5.2) Spec. (6.2)
Spec. (7.2)
Championship (No. 1 vs. No. 2)
4.703* (2.169)
5.028* (2.286)
4.359 (2.562)
No. 1 Ranked Team
5.271** (1.756)
5.239** (1.726)
5.288** (1.906)
Average Rank (if unranked Team Is not playing)
-0.243* (0.121)
-0.196 (0.115)
-0.272 (0.192)
Difference in Rank (if unranked Team is not playing)
0.254** (0.096)
0.154 (0.114)
0.275 (0.247)
Regular Season College Football
1.338
2.233
Average Nielsen Rating
(1.122)
(1.318)
Super Bowl's Nielsen Rating
0.187 (0.135)
0.386 (0.206)
Fiesta Bowl
3.281 (1.825)
2.906 (2.023)
3.313* (1.779)
Orange Bowl
4.306* (1.947)
4.260* (2.072)
4.200** (1.876)
Rose Bowl
7.960*** (2.046)
7.954** (2.149)
7.900*** (1.504)
Cotton Bowl
4.053** (1.332)
3.586* (1.601)
4.108** (1.878)
Year
-0.455***
(0.112)
1986-1988
0.377 (0.771)
1989-1991
0.635 (1.223)
Constant
-6.647 (5.375)
-22.812** (7.748)
8.210*** (1.535)
Team Dummies
No
No
No
Time Fixed Effects
No
No
Yes
Observations
105
105
105
Robust standard errors in parentheses
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
6
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