Understanding the Current International Order

BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL ORDER A RAND Project to Explore U.S. Strategy in a Changing World

UNDERSTANDING THE

Current International

Order

COR PORAT ION

Michael J. Mazarr Miranda Priebe Andrew Radin

Astrid Stuth Cevallos

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Preface

Since 1945, the United States has pursued its global interests through creating and maintaining international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms; these ordering mechanisms are often collectively referred to as the international order. In recent years, rising powers have begun to challenge aspects of this order. This report is part of a project, titled "Building a Sustainable International Order," that aims to understand the existing international order, assess current challenges to the order, and recommend future U.S. policies with respect to the order.

The study will produce multiple reports and essays. Three are central to the study's assessment of the international order: One report defines and scopes the order; one examines its status, attempting to create measurable indexes of the order's health; and one examines the perspectives of major countries toward the order. This report is the first of those and reflects the project team's attempt to understand the existing international order, including how U.S. decisionmakers have described and used the order in conducting foreign policy, as well as how academics have assessed the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior.

This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense's Office of Net Assessment and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the

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Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).

Contents

Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Figures and Table. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv

CHAPTER ONE

The Role of International Order in U.S. Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Risks to the Current Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Roadmap and Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

CHAPTER TWO

Defining the International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 The Post?World War II, Rules-Based Liberal Order.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 The Order's Purposes and Its Effects.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Conclusion and Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

CHAPTER THREE

Engines of International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Rational Pursuit of Common Interests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Interests of a Hegemonic Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Domestic Politics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Socialization and Constructed Identities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Systemic Effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Conclusion and Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

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CHAPTER FOUR

U.S. Approach to the International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 U.S. Visions of the International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 The International Order in U.S. National Security Strategy

Documents.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 U.S. Interests and Approaches to the International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Conclusion and Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

CHAPTER FIVE

Implications for a Research Agenda.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Figures and Table

Figures 2.1.

2.2. 2.3. 3.1.

Schematic Understanding of the Role of International Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Elements and Engines of the Liberal International Order. . . . . . . 14 International Order, 1980. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Role of Causal Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Table 2.1. Alternative Conceptions of Order. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

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