Project Risk Management - MIT OpenCourseWare
ESD.36 System Project Management
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- Project Risk Management
Instructor(s) Prof. Olivier de Weck
Lecture 11
October 16, 2012
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Outline
Layers of Risk and Classical Risk Management Review: Project NPV, Value at Risk (VAR) Concept Example: Garage Case
- ESD.36J SPM
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Layers of Risk Classical Risk Management
- ESD.36J SPM
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- Projects entail many types of risks
Projects bring together many risks In energy (petroleum) field .....
Subsurface (e.g. Macondo well) Fiscal Market Technology Partner, contractor Project execution Operability
Project Manager authority and influence limited relative to set of risks that matter
Nature, degree of manageability and, therefore, desired mental model , differs by risk type, nature of outcome
- ESD.36J SPM
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Layers of Risk
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Market Risks
Country/Fiscal
? Commodity Prices
Industry/Competitive Technical/
? Exchange rates
? Political stability ? Interest rates
? Terrorism
? Risk premium
? Financial,
Project Risks
? Industry evolution
economic stability,
? Construction ? Operations ? Partner/ally ? Technical ? Project management
? Demand, growth rates ? Supply conditions ? Competition ? Infrastructure
inflation ? Regulatory stability
or intervention ? Contract
enforcement ? Legal stability
Natural Risks
? Geology ? Weather
High Influence
Context: Energy Industry
- ESD.36J SPM
Low Influence
Source: D. Lessard
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Risk Categories
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Technical Risk
Market/Threat Change
Programmatic Risk
Cost Risk
- ESD.36J SPM
Schedule Slips
Schedule Risk
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