UPADM-GP 111: - NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public …



UPADM-GP 111:Quantitative Analysis for Public PolicyInstructor InformationProfessor Josh MerfeldEmail: merfeld@nyu.eduOffice Address: 3040B Puck Building, 295 Lafayette StreetOffice Hours: Mondays 1:30pm-2:30pmCourse InformationClass Meeting Times: Mondays 9:30am-12:00pmClass Location: 194 Mercer, room 305Lab Meeting Times: Fridays 2pm-3pmoNote: Lab will not meet every weekCourse DescriptionThis course introduces students to basic statistical methods and their application to management, policy, and financial decision-making. It covers the essential elements of descriptive statistics and univariate and bivariate statistical inference and introduces multivariate analysis. The material emphasizes applied statistics and data analysis in addition to statistical theory. The course encourages a critical approach to reviewing statistical findings and using statistical reasoning in decision-making.Course and Learning ObjectivesBy the end of the semester, you should be able to:have a broader and more general understanding of statistics and social science research when reading articles, both academic and general;be able to identify the appropriate statistical analyses to apply to specific research questions;be proficient in using Stata for conducting statistical analyses, and;be able to form conclusions based upon results of the statistical analyses.Learning Assessment TableCourse Learning Objective CoveredCorresponding Assignment Title#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 1#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 2#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 3#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 4#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 5#1, 2, 4Midterm Exam#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 6#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 7#1, 2, 3, 4Homework 8#1, 2, 3, 4Final ProjectTextbooks and MaterialsI will be assigning readings from the following texts:Mendenhall, W., Beaver, R., & Beaver, B. (2012). Introduction to Probability & Statistics (14th Edition). New York: Duxbury Press.We will use this text throughout the semester, but mostly prior to the exam. Mendenhall et al.You will also need access Stata 16 ( pricing/). If you have an earlier version of Stata installed, you do not need upgrade. The only differences you might notice should be related to the interface. There are multiple flavors of Stata, but the IC version is sufficient for this class. You can buy a six-month license for $48. Alternatively, you can access Stata at a number of computer labs on campus. It is also available through the Virtual Computer Lab (VCL). However, I have had students in the past complain about the reliability of VCL. Being comfortable with a statistics program is an important outcome of this course. This will give you skills that are transferable not just to other courses, but also possible jobs and other programming languages.For the exam, you will want to have a scientific calculator – a Casio FX-300ES Natural Display Scientific Calculator or similar. You can buy one on Amazon or at the NYU bookstore. They are less than $20. You should consider bringing this to class in order to practice.Course Grading/RequirementsAttendance and participation, 10%.Homework, 25%.In-class exam, 30%.Final project, 35%.Due Dates and Late PolicyAll homeworks are due by the start of the following class. Unless discussed with me prior to the weekend, homeworks will not be accepted after the due date. For the final project, you will lose ten points for each day late (e.g. for up to 24 hours late, 10 points; for between 24 and 48 hours late, 20 points).Attendance and ParticipationI realize that sometimes things come up and students need to miss class from time to time. Points will be deducted for excessive absences or persistent tardiness. Participation is meant to encourage you to take an active role in the class (asking questions, contributing to the discussion, etc.).HomeworkThere will be six homeworks. I will drop the lowest homework grade. In other words, your final homework grade will be the average of your five highest grades.In-Class ExamWe can call it a “midterm,” but it will take place in week 11.Final ProjectFor the final project, I will supply a dataset and a number of questions. You will be expected to use the dataset – and the appropriate statistical techniques – to answer the questions. We will discuss the project in more depth after the exam.ExpectationsReading e-mail: I will communicate with you through your NYU e-mail. I’m assuming you read it at least once a day during the semester.Preparation before class: Come prepared for each class having read the assigned material carefully.Absenteeism, punctuality, and in-class conduct: You are expected to attend class and arrive on time. Systematic tardiness will negatively impact your grade. If you miss a class due to unavoidable circumstances, please contact another member of the class and ask them about what was covered in class.Laptops and other technologies: You are welcome to use your laptop during class, but please keep it related to class work. Please don’t get distracted. More importantly, don’t distract your classmates. I will post my slides before class each week (generally just before class), allowing you to focus on and participate in the class discussion.Academic IntegrityAcademic integrity is a vital component of Wagner and NYU. All students enrolled in this class are required to read and abide by Wagner’s Academic Code. All Wagner students have already read and signed the Wagner Academic Oath. Plagiarism of any form will not be tolerated and students in this class are expected to report violations to me. If any student in this class is unsure about what is expected of you and how to abide by the academic code, you should consult with me.Henry and Lucy Moses Center for Students with Disabilities at NYUAcademic accommodations are available for students with disabilities. Please visit the Moses Center for Students with Disabilities (CSD) website and click on the Reasonable Accommodations and How to Register tab or call or email CSD at (212-998-4980 or mosescsd@nyu.edu) for information. Students who are requesting academic accommodations are strongly advised to reach out to the Moses Center as early as possible in the semester for assistance.NYU’s Calendar Policy on Religious Holidays NYU’s Calendar Policy on Religious Holidays states that members of any religious group may, without penalty, absent themselves from classes when required in compliance with their religious obligations. Please notify me in advance of religious holidays that might coincide with exams to schedule mutually acceptable alternatives.DateClassTopicReadingHWLab?01/271Introduction to the CourseWe will discuss the role of quantitative methods in public policy and other social sciences. We willreview the syllabus of this course and go through NYU Classes.None, but note the amount of reading for Class 2Yes02/032Central Tendency and Dispersion, Introduction to DistributionsWe will cover the basics of descriptive statistics, which include categorizing variables, measuring center and spread, and work on some basic graphingin Stata.Chapters 1 - 3HW01Due 02/10Yes02/103ProbabilityVery often skipped in introductory statistics courses, probability is essential to understand because it is the basis of statistics. We will review classicalprobability along with more advanced concepts such as conditional probability and Bayes’ Theorem.Chapter 4NoYes02/17No Class – Presidents’ DayNoNo02/244The Sampling Distribution, Central Limit Theorem, & Confidence IntervalsWe will begin to formally study inferential statistics, which is the foundation for social science research. The idea is that researchers take representative samples of data and make inferences about a population based upon the characteristics of thatsample. We will also be introduced to the normal distribution, which is fundamental to this course.Chapters 6 – 8HW02Due 03/02YesDateClassTopicReadingHWLab?03/025Hypothesis Testing, Part ILecture this week provides a statistical foundation for the most important question a researcher will ask: does this yield significant results? More generally, the hypothesis testing framework provides guidelines for deciding if the characteristics of one group are different than other. We will be looking atcomparing one group to a population for both large and small samples.Chapters 9 – 10HW03Due 03/09Yes03/096Hypothesis Testing, Part IIAs a continuation from Class 5, we will be looking at hypothesis testing for two groups compared toeach other for both large and small samples.Chapters 9 - 10HW04Due 03/31Yes03/16No class – Spring BreakNoNo03/237ANOVA and Chi-SquareThis is a continuation of hypothesis testing. We will be looking at how to conduct hypothesis tests for studies that contain two or more groups, with bothcontinuous and categorical dependent variables.Chapters 11, 14Yes03/308Regression, Part IWe will look at how to analyze (and create hypotheses for) continuous data. Regression is also related to covariance and correlation, which we will study as well. Multivariate regression will also beintroducedChapter 12HW05Due 04/07Yes04/069Regression, Part IIWe will continue studying regression models and multivariate regression. We will discuss addingcategorical variables to a regression as well as more general implementation advice.Mastering ‘Metrics Ch. 2HW06Due 04/14YesDateClassTopicReadingHWLab?04/1310Exam ReviewWe will be reviewing materials for the in-class exam, which will be given next week. Practice problems will be provided ahead of time and you will be given an opportunity to ask questions. Labthis week will also be an opportunity to ask questions.NoYes04/2011In-Class ExamYou will be taking the in-class exam today in class. The exam is open-book, open-notes, and calculator permitted. Please remember to bring all of the necessary materials to class with you, including apencil.NoNo04/2712Dichotomous Dependent VariablesWe will discuss models for dummy (0/1) dependent variables, including the linear probability model, logit, and probit. Logit and probit serve as a briefintroduction to maximum likelihood estimation.Handout on logit and probit (posted onClasses)Read through the final project and come prepared with any Stata questionsfor next week.No05/0413Stata WorkshopToday, you will have an opportunity to ask questions regarding Stata. Come prepared with questions based on the final assignment.NoYes (Open lab)05/1114Causal Inference and the Idealized Experiment Today we will discuss causal inference in statistics, with a focus on when we can interpret regressions causally and why experiments allow for causalinference.Mastering ‘Metrics Ch. 1(posted onClasses)NoYes (Open lab)05/18Finishing the SemesterYour final projects are due 05/18 by 1pm. You will turn these in remotely through NYU Classes. ................
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