Industry Indicators: FANGs
Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 8, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
FANG Performance & Share of S&P 500
1
S&P 500 Ex-FANG Valuation
2
FANG Valuation
3-6
Relative Forward Earnings and Revenues
7
FANG Portfolio Contribution Analysis
8-9
FAANGM Portfolio Contribution Analysis
10
July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FANG Performance & Share of S&P 500
Figure 1.
2200
2200
1900
MARKET CAP: FANG PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO S&P 500 EX-FANG*
1900
1600
(ratio scale, indexed to 100 on 12/21/2012, when all FANG issues were trading)
1600
1300
1300
1000
1000
FANG (794.8)
700
S&P 500 (256.5)
700
S&P 500 ex-FANG (239.4)
400
400
7/8
100 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. Source: Standard & Poor's and Yardeni Research Inc.
2019
2020
2021
2022
100
2023
2024
Figure 2.
16
16
FANG STOCKS PERCENT SHARE OF S&P 500 MARKET CAP AND
FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES
14
(percent)
14
12
Share of S&P 500
12
Capitalization (10.0)
10
Earnings (4.8)
10
Revenues (0.6)
8
8
6
6
6/23
4
4
2
2
0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0 2024
Page 1 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Ex-FANG Valuation
Figure 3.
24
24
FORWARD P/E RATIO: S&P 500 and S&P 500 EX-FANG*
22
22
S&P 500 (16.1)
20
S&P 500 ex-FANG (14.9)
20
18
18
16
6/30
16
14
14
12 2.50
2.25
P/E Difference Attributable
2.00
To FANG (0.9)
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
.75
.50
.25 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
* Price divided by consensus forward earnings forecast. FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2020
2021
6/23 2022
12 2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
.75
.50
.25
2023
2024
Figure 4.
3.0
3.0
FORWARD P/S RATIO: S&P 500 and S&P 500 EX-FANG*
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
6/30
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
S&P 500 (2.14)
1.6
1.4
S&P 500 ex-FANG (2.03)
1.4
1.2
1.2
.25
.25
.20
P/S Difference Attributable To FANG (0.08)
.20
.15
.15
.10
.05
.00 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Price divided by consensus forward sales forecast. FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
6/23 2022
.10
.05
.00
2023
2024
Page 2 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FANG Valuation
Figure 5.
8200
7200 FANG STOCKS, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
6200
FANG Stocks*
5200
06/24/22
4200
Blue Angels Implied Market Cap Index (billion $)**
3200
8200
x70 x60
7200 6200
5200
x50
4200 x40
3200 x30
2200
2200
1200
1200
Latest Forward P/E (34.5)
200 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet.
** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
2022
200
2023
2024
Figure 6.
75
5.5
FANG STOCKS FORWARD VALUATION*
70 5.0
65
4.5 60
55
4.0
50
45
40
Forward P/E** (34.5)
35
Forward P/S*** (3.1)
30 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
* FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). * Market cap divided by aggregate forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Market cap divided by aggregate forward consensus expected revenue per share.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2021
3.5
6/24 3.0
2.5
2022
2.0
2023
2024
Page 3 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FANG Valuation
Figure 7.
150
150
FANG STOCKS FORWARD P/E*
P/E capped at 140 due to extreme values.
140
140
Facebook (13.3)
130
Amazon (66.9)
130
Netflix (16.7)
120
Google (Alphabet) (19.5)
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
10 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
6/24 2022
20
10
2023
2024
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 8.
16
FANG STOCKS FORWARD P/S*
14
12
16
Facebook (3.4)
14
Amazon (2.1)
Netflix (2.5)
Google (Alphabet) (4.9)
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
2
0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected sales per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
4 6/24
2
2022
0
2023
2024
Page 4 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FANG Valuation
Figure 9.
905
755 META (FACEBOOK) FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
605 455
305
905
755
x50
605
x40 455
x30
305 x20
155
155
x10
Latest Forward P/E (13.3)
Price Index: Meta (Facebook) 07/08/22 Blue Angels Implied Price Index**
5 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
2022
5
2023
2024
Figure 10.
601
501 AMAZON FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
401
Stock Price: Amazon
301
07/08/22
201
Blue Angels Implied Price Index**
101
601 501 401
x150
301
x125
x100
201
x75
x50
101
Latest Forward P/E (61.9)
1 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
2022
1
2023
2024
Page 5 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
FANG Valuation
Figure 11.
2002
1602 NETFLIX FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
1202
Price Index: Netflix
802
07/08/22
Blue Angels Implied Price Index**
402
x100 x80 x60
x40
2002 1602 1202 802
402
x20
Latest Forward P/E (16.4)
2 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2019
2020
2021
2022
2
2023
2024
Figure 12.
4300
4300
3900 ALPHABET (GOOGLE) FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
3500
Price Index: Alphabet (Google)
x30
3900 3500
3100
07/08/22
x25
3100
2700
Blue Angels Implied Price Index**
2300
07/08/22
2700 x20
2300
1900
x15
1900
1500
1500
1100
1100
700
700
Latest Forward P/E (19.5)
300 2013
Implied P/E declined in early 2017 because options expense was included in consensus earnings going forward.
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2020
2021
2022
300
2023
2024
Page 6 / July 8, 2022 / Industry Indicators: FANGs
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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