AMAZON VS. WALMART
AMAZON VS. WALMART
REAL VISION CASE COMPETITION
Team: Fletcheros
By: Nathan Cohen-Fournier, Adolfo Gatti, Angelica Nouhi
Representing the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
Page 2
Contextual Analysis
Page 3
Amazon Analysis
Page 4
Walmart Analysis
Page 8
Valuations
Page 11
Exhibits
Page 15
End Notes
Page 27
1
ABSTRACT
Choosing to invest between Amazon and Walmart seems, at first glance, a straightforward decision. Who wouldn¡¯t invest in the new, exciting player on the block? One is a
promising company built on growth and the vision of a brilliant entrepreneur; the other has
become the largest by revenues and number of employees. One incarnates financial health,
proven track record, and stability; the other, astronomical stock returns accompanied by high
volatility and uncertainty.
We chose the financial strength and consistency of Walmart. We found Walmart¡¯s stock
to be fairly valued. Although financial returns are not expected to be massive, we believe a
steady dividend from a healthy company is the best choice in a turbulent global economy.
Amazon surely has much to offer in promising e-commerce and cloud computing markets.
Nevertheless, many competitors are eyeing these markets, capital requirements are increasing
with sales, and numerous socio-economic risks remain. In fact, we found the stock price of
Amazon to be overvalued by roughly 30%.
2
An investment for the next ten years, Amazon versus Walmart: which to choose? We
picked the stability of Walmart over the uncertainty of Amazon. Throughout this paper, we will
expose the rationale for our investment thesis.
CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS
During the summer of 2015 Amazon leapfrogged Walmart in terms of market value. This
is the story of two giants facing each other on various battlefields; the biggest being the US retail
industry. The retail industry follows macro-economic trends and has been subject to several
changes due to the advent of technology. A key contributor of transformation in the industry has
been e-commerce. In the US, e-commerce accounted for 20% of the growth in the industry,
which totaled $304.9 billion in 20141 (Exhibit 1). A necessary condition for e-commerce is
internet access: according to the World Bank, 40.7% of world¡¯s population in 2014 had internet
access.2
In the US, e-commerce represented 6.4% of the total retail industry during 2014, and is
projected to increase to 8.9% by year-end 2018 (Exhibit 2).3 Amazon is the leader holding 16%
of the market share,4 whereas Walmart has just recently entered the fray. Additionally, mobile
commerce is gaining a stronger imprint, and is estimated to reach $132.69 billion by 2018 or
27% of total e-commerce sales (Exhibit 3).5
3
AMAZON ANALYSIS
Since its IPO in 1997, Amazon¡¯s market capitalization has increased by 53,040%,
growing from $441 million in Q2-2007 to $235 billion in Q3-2015.6 While the company has
seduced the masses and become a Wall-Street darling, it only recently started to generate much
anticipated profits.
Amazon is considered by many a technology
stock. Indeed, few companies have spent as much in
CAPEX and R&D as Amazon, which has invested
12% of its total sales since 2000.7 Since 2010, the
firm expanded its square footage at a CAGR of 39%
while
providing
facilities
with
state-of-the-art
machinery, including recently acquired Kiva robots.8
Amazon¡¯s capacity to branch out from its core
Source: Amazon
businesses is exemplified by Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company¡¯s new cloud
computing service, which has grown at a CAGR of 52% since 2010.9
Amazon has been able to translate its technological advantages into tangible benefits for
consumers. According to a study conducted by RBC, Amazon is the leader per convenience,
price, and selection in the e-commerce industry,10 giving it a dominating position and placing it
first on US brand rankings.11 The aura that surrounds Amazon¡¯s success results from the
charisma of its founder, Jeff Bezos. Bezos has been nimble at acquiring talent and pushing
employees to constantly create and develop new solutions, while maintaining the focus on
customers. ¡°Above all else, align with customers. Win when they win. Win only when they
win.¡±12
4
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