Sarkozy visit to Damascus signals thaw in relationsIan ...



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Tues. 2 Aug. 2011

THE TRUMPET

➢ The Battle for Syria………………………………………….1

FINANCIAL TIMES

➢ Syrian opposition faces steep learning curve………………..7

FOCUS NEWS

➢ Obama meets U.S. ambassador to Syria …………………....9

WALL st. JOURNAL

➢ Preventing Civil War in Syria…By Elliott Abrams………..10

➢ Syrian Raids Spur Resistance……………………………....14

GUARDIAN

➢ Syria teeters on the brink…………………………………...19

➢ Syria: Under the hammer…………………………………..23

➢ Hama – the city that's defying Assad………………………25

JERUSALEM POST

➢ Syria - Is it on the threshold of a civil war?..........................30

WASHINGTON POST

➢ Syria’s Ramadan massacre………………………………....34

REUTERS

➢ Can non-violent struggle bring down Syria’s Assad?...........35

COUNCIL on FOREIGN RELATIONS

➢ BRICS in the UNSC and the Prospects for Syria………….41

TODAY’S ZAMAN

➢ Syrian reflections in Hatay ………………………………...43

INDEPENDENT

➢ Fisk: Egypt's revolutionary youth are being sidelined……..45

WASHINGTON INSTITUTE

➢ Syrian Army Shows Growing Signs of Strain………..……47

➢ بيان حماه – التجمع الوطني السوري الحر – (بيان هام)..........................51

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The Battle for Syria

An Arab Spring may take root, but don’t be fooled by what grows.

Robert Morley,

The Trumpet (the official website of the Philadelphia Trumpet newsmagazine),

August 2, 2011

When the United States government and al Qaeda agree on something, you know that can’t be a good thing.

In this case, they both want Syrian President Bashir Assad to step down. Bizarrely, that’s not all they agree on. On July 11, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, “President Assad is not indispensable. … Our goal is to see that the will of the Syrian people for a democratic transformation occurs” (emphasis added throughout).

Responding to America’s overtures to the anti-government protesters, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri warned the pro-democracy activists not to deal with America. America would only corrupt them, he said. He called Assad, however, a “leader of criminal gangs,” an “aggressor,” an “oppressor,” and a “traitor” to his people. He applauded the pro-democracy activists’ efforts to teach Assad a “lesson.” And he hailed Syrian protesters as “mujahideen,” or holy warriors.

Both America and al Qaeda are pushing for democracy in Syria. Yet for all the talk, that is mostly all it is. Neither group has much influence in Syria.

Syria’s future will be determined by other powers more influential than the U.S. and al Qaeda. Since the country sits near the heart of the world’s most important but increasingly volatile oil-exporting region, the resolution of Syria’s Arab Spring will not only impact regional stability but the world economy. Plus, Syria’s Arab Spring could easily morph into Israel’s dark winter if the Jewish state ends up with an even more radical regime as a “peace partner.”

The pressure for regime change in Syria is coming from both inside and outside—but not necessarily from where you might expect.

From within, the pressure for change comes from its 75 percent Sunni majority, who are upset with the ruling Alawite minority of President Bashir Assad. This is not unexpected. Sunnis are both economically disadvantaged and politically unrepresented despite their vast majority. The recent protests are the product of years of repression and in some cases outright persecution.

Now the protests seem to be intensifying—as is Assad’s crackdown. Sunday was perhaps the bloodiest day so far.

Reports indicate that another 120 people were killed as troops besieged the city of Hama for a second day. Tanks shelled the city of 800,000 people as protesters vowed not to allow themselves to be slaughtered, as happened during the last revolt against Assad’s father in 1982. Hama controls the main highway connecting the capital city of Damascus with Syria’s largest city Aleppo.

On Monday, an intense gun battle was also reportedly raging in the eastern city of Deir el-Zour, and soldiers backed by tanks took control of the town of Houla in the central province of Homs.

The protests are no longer just contained to the far south, and it is harder for Assad to blame the uprisings on agitators from Jordan and Israel. As the protests have grown in strength, and greater numbers of military defections continue to occur, there is a growing sense that Assad may be starting to lose control of events. It is estimated that 1,600 civilians have now been killed since the largely “peaceful” uprising began in mid-March.

The internal turmoil has opened up Syria to exploitation by outside powers. This is not unknown by Assad, but there may be little he can do about it. If Assad wants to stay in power, he needs friends—and that comes with a price.

With the United States winding down its presence in the Middle East and evacuating its troops, the region is fragmenting into competing power blocs. Syria is caught right in the center of the power struggle.

These power blocs can be categorized as those aligned with Iran and those reacting against Iran’s growing strength.

Currently, Syria is in the Iranian camp (along with Iraq and, increasingly, Egypt). Syria is Iran’s most important ally, and Iran will do all it can to keep it in its sphere of influence.

Now that Syria is experiencing internal turmoil, Iran is trying to exploit this vulnerability to strengthen this alliance and thus its foothold near Lebanon and Israel’s northern border. When the protests initially broke out, Iran sent Bashir Assad both Hezbollah fighters and crack Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp members to help stomp out the uprisings. According to Stratfor, this sent a dual message that Iran could not only help Assad but also hurt him if he chose to realign himself with other Sunni states in an effort to gain their assistance in pacifying the protesters. Iranian meddling has thus far proved effective—but in the end, meddling of any kind also tends to produce a backlash.

Iran is currently using America’s withdrawal from the region and the general unrest as a once-in-a-lifetime-type opportunity to destabilize its Sunni Arab rivals and assert its regional hegemony. Iran’s virtual takeover of Iraq is one example, as is the battle for Bahrain and the world’s largest oil fields.

Attempting to oppose Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East is a Saudi-led coalition of nations.

“Saudi Arabia has an ambition and so does Iran,” noted Bassel Salloukh, assistant professor of politics at the Lebanese American University, in 2009. “Syria stands in the middle.”

Saudi Arabia has been working on shifting Syrian loyalties for years. It too looks on the current crisis as a game-changing opportunity.

Saudi Arabia’s current plan of action hinges on its greatest strength: oil exports. Earlier this year it lent Syria $73 million to construct a new power plant to alleviate growing electricity shortages. The message from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (gcc) members (which now include Jordan) is that they are more than willing to help Assad overcome his financial difficulties, as long as his regime takes the necessary and visible actions to distance itself from Iran.

But perhaps the greatest pressure for change in Syria is coming via its neighbor Turkey.

As it is for Saudi Arabia, it is in Turkey’s strategic interest to build a coalition of states to act as a counterbalance to Iran.

This fits well with the views of Turkey’s Islamist Prime Minister Recip Erdogan, who seems to envision Turkey as the leader of the Arabs. Coming to power in 2002, he has since been accused of seeking to establish a new Ottoman empire.

With a fast-growing economy, a rising population and the largest military in Europe, Turkey has become a formidable power. With its nato ties, it also has access to many tier-one economic and military powers not available to some of its Middle Eastern rivals. “For the first time since the end of World War i, Ankara is beginning to revisit its historical role as a regional powerhouse,” wrote Stratfor (June 8, 2010).

America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with rejection by the European Union due to its Muslim religion, have compelled Turkey to step out on its own.

Although its first small steps saw it begin to subordinate its defense agreement with Israel and make overtures to Iran, events in Syria are now setting up a clash with the Persians.

Turkey has been working closely with Syria to help manage the fallout from the protests there. Syria is relying on Turkey to prevent nato intervention (like in Libya), while Turkey wants to make sure the violence does not spread from Syria’s Kurdish population into its own. Toward this end, Erdogan is publicly insisting on enough reforms to satisfy the protesters, but not so many as to cause Assad to lose power.

However, behind the scenes, there is evidence that Turkey is pushing for much more dramatic changes. According to the Jerusalem Post’s Caroline Glick, Turkey has been actively interfering in the revolt against Assad. Meanwhile, Turkish humanitarian relief agencies are hosting Syrian opposition leaders in Turkey.

Stratfor confirms that the “Assad regime may have reason to be wary of Turkey’s long-term intentions for Syria” (April 7, 2011). According to Stratfor analysts, Erdogan’s party wants Syria’s Islamist organizations to gain political space—with the goal of becoming their eventual sponsor. For now, Syria needs Turkish support, so Ottoman influence in Syria will probably grow.

“Erdogan’s clear aim is to replace Iran as Syria’s overlord in a post-Assad Syria,” says Glick.

So who will win in Syria?

In March, Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Sultan told his Turkish counterpart that the Saudi royals “want to see Turkey as a strategic partner of Saudi Arabia” (Stratfor, March 4).

Will the Turks join Saudi Arabia’s Gulf Cooperation Council in opposing Iran? By working together, they would certainly form a much more formidable front.

The longer and more violent the Syrian protests get, the more an Arab coalition including Syria and joined with Turkey looks probable.

In fact, this is exactly what the Bible predicts will happen. Psalm 83 gives us an insight into what is coming in the very near future.

This Psalm contains a prophecy of a group of nations that ally themselves together with the purpose of destroying Israel. The Psalm 83 nations are distinct from a more powerful region-wide dominating power (the Iran-led camp). This prophecy is fulfilled after a German-led European power conquers Iran and its allies (Daniel 11:40-43).

Psalm 83:5-8 list who is in this non-Iranian alliance that readily allies itself with the invading Europeans. “For they have consulted together with one consent: they are confederate against thee: The tabernacles of Edom, and the Ishmaelites; of Moab, and the Hagarenes; Gebal, and Ammon, and Amalek; the Philistines with the inhabitants of Tyre; Assur [Assyria or Germany] also is joined with them: they have holpen the children of Lot. Selah.” Here are the modern names of these nations, as taught at Ambassador College under Herbert W. Armstrong: Edom—Turkey; Ishmaelites—Saudi Arabia; Moab—Jordan; Hagarenes—anciently dwelt in the land known as Syria today; Gebal and Tyre—Lebanon; Ammon—also Jordan. This is not extremely precise, but it gives a good general idea of where these nations are today. The small Arab nations on the Arabian Peninsula making up the gcc would biblically speaking be considered part of Saudi Arabia because of their Ishmaelitish origin.

The reason Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Libya and Ethiopia are missing from the Psalm 83 list is that they are allied with Iran when it is conquered by a German-led Europe (Daniel 11:42-43).

As we see Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the other gcc member states seek to incorporate more allies to protect themselves from Iran, also watch for them to begin reaching out to Germany and the Europeans for protection.

Additionally, watch for a change in Syrian politics. Bible prophecy indicates that at the time of the Daniel 11 European invasion, Syria and Lebanon will not be allied with Iran. Since in many ways Lebanon is controlled by Syria, watch for it to eventually abandon Iran.

Syria’s Arab Spring is not over yet. America is shrinking in influence. Iran is becoming the undisputed king of the region, and new allies are banding together for protection. Prophecy is being fulfilled, and despite the troubles ahead, it is all leading to the best news ever: the return of Jesus Christ.

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Syrian opposition faces steep learning curve

Roula Khalaf

Financial Times,

1 Aug. 2011,

When Wissam Tarif, head of Insan, a human rights organisation, meets western officials these days, he is confronted with a common and frustrating question: where is the alternative to the Syrian regime?

“They are always saying: ‘Give us a list of 20 names, give us a list of 20 names’,” he says, half-jokingly. “But it doesn’t work that way.”

Indeed it does not. As Bashar al-Assad’s regime has escalated its brutal repression of protests, a youth movement has gained momentum but a coherent opposition front that can genuinely speak on behalf of the enraged people on the streets has yet to emerge. Despite numerous efforts by opposition activists and intellectuals abroad, and a campaign to engage outside powers, Syria’s opposition is still, by its own admission, struggling to unite and speak with one voice.

And how could it? The protest movement, mostly led by young people, is localised, with the ability to organise into a national force, let alone communicate, constrained enormously by the security crackdown.

Local leaders who declare themselves are certain to face immediate punishment as the regime pursues a relentless campaign of arrests. A meeting planned last month by local activists and intended to coincide with an opposition conference in Istanbul was thwarted by the government.

Activists and intellectuals, Islamist and liberal, Arab and Kurd, have held several conferences outside Syria. There have been moments of friction and disagreement. But all have emerged with the common message that the regime must go and be replaced by a democratic political system. All have also acknowledged that they are supporting the protest movement – not leading it.

“People outside want to talk politics and they’re discovering that they have a civil society and a youth that is worth their respect,” says Burhan Ghalyoun, an academic and dissident. “But everyone is waiting for [events on] the ground.”

Inside Syria, so-called local co-ordinating committees have managed to operate as an efficient information network, putting activists in contact with each other, and agreeing with local communities on the political statements of the week. An underground network of doctors, meanwhile, has been set up, to help the wounded who may be arrested if they seek treatment at hospitals. But even within the committees there have been reports of rivalries.

Two factors have constrained the domestic opposition. First, no high level defections have been reported in Syria, depriving the opposition of insiders who can assume a prominent role. Second, the regime has focused on reasserting control over border areas to prevent the creation of a base where the opposition can be protected.

ctivists have been debating the challenge facing the opposition for months, comparing it to the more simple case of Libya, where defectors were quickly able to form a transitional authority in the liberated territory of Benghazi in the east of the country. Yet, over the past week, Libya’s opposition has also fallen into disarray, after the killing of Abdel Fattah Younes, the military commander, whose loyalty to the council was questioned.

Mr Tarif says despite the challenges Syria’s opposition must soon articulate a credible transition plan. “What you need now is fusion between the inside and outside,” he says. “The opposition needs to start working on a new constitution that takes the debate towards the future and legitimises the opposition.”

With a regime determined to fight at all cost for its survival, the opposition’s task will not get easier. Yet, whether in Syria or other rebellious parts of the region, this battle is part of the difficult birth of a new Arab society. Mr Ghalyoun says: “People who have taken to the streets are throwing themselves into politics for the first time and you cannot just organise this upheaval.”

While frustrating for the west, he says, it does not explain the weak international reaction to Syria’s uprising. “If the west had a programme for Syria they could find the people to talk to,” he says. “But they don’t have leverage in Syria and so they claim there is no opposition.”

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Obama meets U.S. ambassador to Syria

FOCUS News Agency

02 August 2011,

Home / World

Washington. U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday met with U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, using the chance to reiterate his condemnation on the Syrian government, said the White House in a statement, as cited by Xinhua.

In the statement, the White House said that Obama took the opportunity to "consult with" American Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who is in Washington D.C. for meetings with the U.S. senators and senior officials.

During the meeting, Obama reiterated his "strong condemnation of the Syrian regime's outrageous use of violence against its own people," said the White House.

Obama also reaffirmed America's support for "the courageous Syrian people, and their demands for universal rights and a democratic transition," said the White House.

A total of 79 Syrians were said to have been killed in clashes with Syrian security forces on Sunday. On the same day, Obama vowed that the U.S. will continue to increase pressure on Syria to isolate the government led by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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Preventing Civil War in Syria

The key is peeling the minority Alawite community away from the Assad mafia..

Elliott Abrams,

Wall Street Journal,

2 Aug. 2011,

Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have endured since March, and the country may be headed for civil war. That's because unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, sectarian rivalries are central to Syrian politics. That adds an element of danger to the situation—but also points the way toward how dictator Bashar al-Assad may fall, especially if the West takes the proper initiative.

Syria's population is 74% Sunni Muslim. Yet the Assad regime is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam—often considered heretical by orthodox Sunnis—that comprises only 10% or 15% of Syrians. The best-armed and best-trained divisions of the Syrian army are Alawite.

As President Assad has cracked down on protesters with violent force, killing roughly 2,000, Washington's reaction has been slow and unsteady. On May 19, President Obama called for a "serious dialogue" between the regime and the protesters in a speech at the State Department. Yet on July 31, he said "the courageous Syrian people who have demonstrated in the streets will determine its future." Which is it? U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford's July visit to the city of Hama—where he was received by the crowds with bouquets of flowers—is a reminder that U.S. actions remain critically important to any chance of a less violent outcome.

There appears to be no U.S. strategy except prayers that Syria doesn't turn into Libya: a full-fledged civil war. With the NATO military action in Libya now a source of contention both in the U.S. and among NATO allies, the last thing the White House likely wants is increased violence in Syria. Washington's inaction would then make it appear callous and inept—and could eventually lead to calls for a no-fly zone, arming the rebels, or even some form of military intervention.

American leadership can help avoid civil war. Our goal should be to separate the Assad family and its closest cronies from the rest of the Alawite community.

Across Alawite society there are varying degrees of loyalty to the Assads. There are close supporters who know their fate is tied to that of Assad, but there are many others who care little about the ruling family but are paralyzed by fear of vengeance against the entire community after President Assad is gone. The Alawite generals in the Syrian Army should be key targets for a campaign of psychological warfare urging them to salvage their community's post-Assad future by refusing now to kill their fellow citizens. The U.S. should address them publicly, but also reach out to them privately through whatever intelligence or military channels are available.

Here the Turkish government may be able to help, for they turned against Assad even before the U.S. did. The Turks were pursuing their own interests, seeking to displace Iran as the outside power most influential in Syria. But they also don't want to see a Syrian civil war that could, among other things, produce a massive refugee flow across their borders. Messages from Turkish officials to the Alawite military establishment can help persuade them not to sacrifice their future in a vain effort to save the Assad mafia. The message, and the tougher it is the better: "Make your choice now. Are you going to be war criminals or survivors?"

For this to work, the U.S. should stop speaking about "the regime" and speak instead about "the Assads." We should end the American equivocation and say clearly that Assad must and will go. The Alawites, and the generals in particular, won't think hard about their place in Syria's future until they are convinced Assad is finished.

For this reason, Ambassador Ford should be recalled now, to demonstrate a final break with the Assads, or he should be deployed repeatedly, as he was in Hama, to symbolize America's support for the opposition. For the same reason the U.S. should be far more active in turning Assad and his closest supporters into international pariahs, using whatever multilateral bodies are available and employing far sharper presidential rhetoric than we have yet seen. Assad and his family should be offered one last chance to get out now before the wheels start turning that will make him an international outlaw forever.

Second, we should put far more pressure on the Syrian business community—Sunni, Christian and Alawite—so that it increasingly sees the Assads as a bottomless drain on the nation, not a bulwark against chaos. This means working harder to get international cooperation on additional sanctions that would hit Syrian imports and exports, rather than targeting only the finances of a few top officials close to Assad.

Finally, the U.S. should be pressing the Syrian opposition—the traditional leadership inside the country (at least those still out of prison), and the new groups such as those that met recently in Turkey—to state with greater clarity their commitment to civil peace when the Assads are gone. They should pledge that post-Assad Syria will protect all minorities—the Alawites, Kurds and the very nervous Christian communities. They should agree now to an international role in providing these protections and guarantees. The more detailed these pledges are, and the more publicity and international support they get, the more good they will do inside Syria.

But for all the justified focus on Syria, the single event that would most help bring down the Assads would be the fall of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. It still isn't clear today if the lesson of the Arab Spring is that dictators are doomed or that dictators willing to shoot peaceful protesters can win. Once Gadhafi goes, the oxygen Libya is sucking from the Arab struggle for democracy will circulate again. The NATO effort—however poorly implemented—will have finally been a success, and threats of possible military action to prevent civilians, especially refugees, will have some credibility.

Meantime, much can be done to avoid a sectarian war in Syria if the Assad mafia can be separated from much of its own sectarian support. We can use our voice and influence to persuade Syria's minorities that they have a secure future after Assad is gone—and help all of Syria's communities agree on the rules for the post-Assad era that is coming.

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Syrian Raids Spur Resistance

Thousands March to Support Opposition; U.S. to Meet With Activists, Hardening Anti-Assad Stance.

Nour Malas,

Wall Street Journal,

AUGUST 2, 2011,

BEIRUT—Thousands of Syrians marched Monday evening in a show of solidarity with two opposition strongholds attacked by the government a day earlier, while security forces renewed their raids on the cities of Hama and Deir el-Zour.

A feared scenario—that protests would intensify during the holy month of Ramadan, which began Monday, and that President Bashar al-Assad's regime would scramble to regain full control of restive cities—appeared to be unfolding. Government security forces raided mosques in several cities Monday evening and used nail bombs to disperse crowds gathering to march in support of Hama and Deir el-Zour, said residents and activists.

Seven people were killed in the evening, bringing to fourteen the number killed across Syria on Monday, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an organization of activist groups.

The military campaign, which has sparked international outrage, signals Mr. Assad's defiance against internal protests and external sanctions alike.

Monday's attacks followed international condemnation of Mr. Assad's use of force against civilians, which the government has said are mostly armed terrorist groups.

Russia, an ally of Syria that has so far blocked a United Nations effort to condemn the violence, called Monday for an end to the attacks.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated calls for President Assad "to stop the slaughter now." Mrs. Clinton will meet on Tuesday for the first time with Syrian political activists, according to senior U.S. officials, as the Obama administration moves to more formally align itself with the anti-Assad movement.

Previously, Mrs. Clinton had been cautious about meeting with Syrian opposition figures as the U.S. continued to hold out hope of pursing a dialogue with Mr. Assad on political reforms, according to U.S. officials. Syrian activists sought to meet with Mrs. Clinton last month in Turkey on the sidelines of an international conference on Libya, but weren't granted a meeting.

U.S. officials didn't comment Monday on what will be on the agenda for her meeting with activists and Syrian-American leaders. But a number of U.S.-based Syrian activists have been pushing for the Obama administration to take a harder line on Mr. Assad.

They are seeking passage in particular of a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Mr. Assad's political crackdown. They also are lobbying for new international sanctions targeting Syria's energy exports and for the U.N. to refer a case against Mr. Assad and his government to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, charging them with crimes against humanity.

Turkey also sharply raised its public condemnation of Syria's regime following Sunday's attack on Hama, while a senior Turkish official said sanctions were now "on the table." Turkey's language hardened overnight, from describing the attacks as something it couldn't condone, to "unacceptable," much stronger language in diplomatic code and falling in line with Western allies. "Beginning the holy month of Ramadan with bloodshed is unacceptable," Turkey's President Abdullah Gul said Monday, the state news agency Anadolu Ajansi reported.

The stepped-up Turkish and Russian reactions are the most potentially significant, with Turkey a neighboring ally and important trade partner and Russia holding weight at the U.N.

China and Russia agreed to meet Tuesday morning to discuss the drafting of a U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria in a sign that the two countries have reduced their opposition to U.N. action.

Moscow and Beijing had previously refused to discuss a U.S.-European draft resolution that would condemn Syria for the violence against protesters. "I am cautious because the debate did not focus on an outcome, but there was agreement that the situation requires a response," said a Western diplomat present at a closed-door Security Council meeting Monday night.

The European Union on Monday announced its fourth wave of sanctions against Syria since uprisings began, saying it will impose a travel ban and asset freeze on five Syrians involved in or associated with the country's violent repression. The names will be published Tuesday.

The largest postprayer protests on Monday emerged in Syria's third-largest city, Homs, while demonstrations continued to roil the suburbs around Damascus, the capital, according to activists. In the city of Hama, where the military broke a nearly two-month lull in violence on Sunday, security forces on Monday again broke a few hours of calm, resuming tank firing and opening fire with machine guns on evening protests.

"Every street and neighborhood emerged after prayer" to demonstrate, said one Hama resident reached by telephone. Unable to gather in large groups, smaller protests faced tank firing and machine-gun fire, the resident said from his home. A bomb struck part of the city's courthouse, burning part of it down before marchers put out the rest of the fire, he said. The source of the bomb was unclear.

In Homs, protesters marching from the Omar Bin Khattab mosque were scattered by heavy gunfire but regathered to continue their protest, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The group said the crowds of protesters in Homs after the evening prayer were the largest yet in the city.

Security forces used nail bombs and tear gas to disperse protesters in the Damascus suburb of Kasweh, while raiding mosques and opening fire on worshippers in the restive suburb of Moadhamiyeh, according to the Observatory.

The attacks were mild compared with the military bombardments reported Sunday in Hama and the eastern city of Deir el-Zour. The strikes killed 52 people in Hama and a total of 81 people across Syria, according to the Local Coordination Committees.

The continued violence Monday renewed debate among Syria's opposition on what kind of assistance they seek from the international community, following more than four months of largely peaceful protests during which they have rejected foreign intervention. "We don't want intervention," the Hama resident said. "Just something to stop the bloodshed."

New York-based rights group Amnesty International on Monday said: "At a minimum, the United Nations must impose an arms embargo, freeze the assets of President al-Assad and others suspected of crimes against humanity and refer the situation to the International Criminal Court for investigation." Amnesty has said the ongoing violence constitutes crimes against humanity.

"We're not expecting much from the U.N., but this can't go on," said an opposition figure, who declined to be named given the sensitivity of the debate over foreign involvement in Syria. "We need intervention, whether that's military or helping arm us, if [Mr. Assad] is going to continue to wage war as it looks like he's planning to do."

British Foreign Secretary William Hague ruled out that prospect, saying Monday there should be tougher sanctions on the Assad regime but that military action is "not a remote possibility."

Months of coaxing Mr. Assad's regime to abandon violence and push through promised reforms appeared to fail Sunday, as the military stretched across five locations, a day before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Activists have vowed protests will intensify this month, when Syria's Muslim majority will gather at mosques—focal points for protest marches—nightly for prayer.

The attacks, which appeared to shock global powers but failed to produce a unified or elevated international position against Mr. Assad, also raised concerns among Syria's activists that the military was still capable of deploying across the country and wasn't nearly as fatigued as some had thought.

Syria's government didn't respond to requests to comment on Sunday's attacks. Syria's state news agency said "armed groups continued their criminal acts" in Hama, storming a center for army conscripts and stealing uniforms and military IDs.

In a speech to the armed forces on their 66th anniversary carried by the official news agency, Mr. Assad praised the military for "proving to be an impregnable fortress foiling the dreams and suspect plans of enemies."

Faced with a dead end at the U.N., Syria's opposition has in recent weeks shifted focus on lobbying European nations to boycott Syria's oil and gas business, one of the regime's strongest remaining lifelines.

They have also moved to make contact with Gulf and other Arab nations, to make a humanitarian case while probing the possibility of eliciting a response from regional players that have stayed silent on Syria so far, baffled with street protests across the region or consumed with containing the fallout at home.

"With no Arab or international consensus on how best to take action against Damascus, the U.N. Security Council will remain weak and divided on how to tackle the crisis," said David Hartwell, Middle East political analyst at IHS, an intelligence and forecasting firm.

Sunday's attacks, from the southern cities where Syria's protests first exploded in mid-March to the central city of Hama, appeared to show regime resolve to intimidate protesters ahead of Ramadan. Some analysts said Mr. Assad wanted to try to crush the most restive cities to avoid carrying out major operations against civilians during the Muslim holy month.

But a resident of Hama said earlier Monday that they had managed to prevent the army from entering one neighborhood and had fought them with sticks and stones in another, also showing protester resolve.

"The resistance of the youth is surprisingly resilient—it's shocking," said resident Abdel Rahim Samaan.

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Syria teeters on the brink

The regime's campaign of brutality in Hama could push Syria towards civil war. But how will the international community react?

Chris Doyle,

Guardian,

1 Aug. 2011,

In Hama, Syrians no longer know where to bury their dead. Following the assault on Syria's fourth largest city by tanks and bulldozers at 5am on Sunday morning, movement is nigh impossible. The cemeteries are cut off. Families with backyards or gardens can at least bury their loved ones.

Hama's bloody history has seen many Syrians in unmarked graves across the city, not least after the massacre in 1982 that left around 20,000 dead. Who knows how many are buried under the rubble? How many more will join them?

The regime launched what can be seen as pre-emptive massacres designed to reassert the climate of fear and thwart any pressure to reform prior to Ramadan. Hama had been increasingly outside of the regime's control. But will such escalating brutality work? All the evidence of the last few months shows that this will only trigger further protests.

Most of the debate had been on how the protesters would up their activity during Ramadan, not the regime. The refrain was that every day would be Friday as large numbers of Syrians would pour out of mosques daily into larger demonstrations all over the country. The mosques have been the only place Syrians can gather without security permission. No surprise, therefore, that tanks were even shelling mosques.

The regime seems to be taking them at their word. For months Fridays have equalled repression, so now will every day see the regime's security services and thugs dishing up a menu of death, arrests and torture. This welcome to Ramadan salvo has left some 100 dead in Hama and 11 in Deir Ezzor. A US official described this as "full-on warfare" although there is still no sign of the notorious "armed gangs" that the regime claims are fermenting violence and attacking the security services.

What is the regime's strategy? In addition to repression, it has tried to stoke sectarianism, blame outsiders, divert attention with marches on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and lure its opponents into taking up arms. All have failed as has the charade of a reform process that saw regime apparatchiks sitting side by side with actors listening intently to the vice-president. Even those running this dialogue do not know if it will continue. For days the regime's media has called for an "iron fist" strategy (what was it before?). This may be it.

The Hama operation seems a deliberate step-up. Leaks from within the regime say that there was a meeting on Saturday. This included the president, his brother Maher, and key heads of the military and security apparatus. Within hours of that meeting Hama was under attack.

The regime's opponents insist that they will not be intimidated and these actions will only swell their ranks. Worryingly, the mood among a small but significant number of the protesters is changing. There is growing impatience. The demonstrations have largely been peaceful, emphasising unity and non-violence. Increasingly there is more chatter about having the right to protect themselves, the non-violent path seemingly discredited against a regime prepared to use all necessary force to cling on to power, and an international community unwilling or unable to do anything about it. Pictures of guns are appearing on Facebook profiles. Syrians fear civil war.

Building the Syrian opposition as a political force continues. Syrian intellectuals who organised the first-ever opposition conferences in Syria under this regime are trying to do more. A conference on 2 August, entitled Shaping Syria's Future and aimed at debating plans for transition to a democratic state, has been postponed. Many of those who would have presented papers have been arrested or forced into hiding. Others could not get to Damascus because of the dangerous situation. Nevertheless, this political debate about Syria's future continues apace.

Options for the international community are thin. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, is "deeply concerned", which usually means nothing will happen. He used the same phrase when dealing with Thailand, Lebanon, Bahrain, Iran, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, on each occasion drawing a largely inactive response.

Inaction should not be an option. The regime only sees this as a "green light." Russia China, India, South Africa and Brazil should be compelled to explain their positions. How many thousands does the Syrian regime have to kill before the UN security council can even issue a condemnation?

Arab states have largely been silent on massacres in Syria, some even overtly supporting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Even Egypt, which kicked out its own dictator, has backed him. The Arab League suspended Libya and even supported the no fly zones. In ruling out military force, foreign secretary William Hague cited the lack of Arab League support as one key difference with Libya. This is disingenuous because even if the Arab League had asked for action against Syria, there is neither the appetite nor the resources in Britain, France and the US to engage in yet another conflict.

The reality is, as I have argued previously, that there is no viable military option, and above all, most Syrians see international intervention as the worst possible option. However, if the regime were to commit another 1982-style massacre, how would the international community react?

The US is pushing for oil sanctions, but largely because of the lack of alternatives. Oil sanctions are far from welcome by opposition inside Syria who know that this will give the regime a further excuse to punish the people and blame external conspiracies.

Increasing targeted sanctions will be the only constructive option to pressure the regime. The EU has announced a fourth round of sanctions against five people, bringing the total to 35 and four entities as well. This number will expand. It could include, for example, ad-Dounia TV, the regime channel that habitually incites violence. Human rights researchers are confident of providing more detailed information on other targets, so do not be surprised if we see further rounds of sanctions. Every person associated with this regime's atrocities needs to know that they could be next unless they stop now.

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Syria: Under the hammer

After four months of protest Assad has lost even the bare minimum, the sullen acquiescence of his people, to govern

Editorial,

Guardian,

1 Aug. 2011,

Omar Habal, an activist in Hama, the city of central Syria which has came under tank and heavy artillery fire in the last two days, described the mood of defiance graphically on Monday. "People are standing up. They are defending (the city) with their open chests. We will not allow what happened in 1982 to be repeated … we will not allow the military to enter whatever the sacrifice." In 1982, Bashar Assad's father, Hafez, bombed the city flat after an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood. More than 10,000 people were killed in one of the most brutal single episodes in the history of the Middle East. The son's attempt to bring his iron fist down on this, of all cities, may well rank as his biggest miscalculation yet .

He has made others. In the four months in which this uprising has continued, Assad has vacillated between promises of reform and sending in the snipers. Hama itself is a case history of how opinion hardened with each clampdown. As Alain Gresh, one of the last western journalists to get into Hama reported, Hama took its time to become involved, mindful of what happened under Hafez. The first demonstrations and deaths came at the end of April, but the town was willing to talk. A delegation met the president on 11 May, who promised to bring those responsible for the killing to trial. Nothing happened, of course. A larger demonstration took place on 3 June. Between 150 and 230 were killed. The city met the president again and the head of government forces was recalled. Then came a massive demonstration on 1 July. The regime panicked, the first brutish apparatchik reinstalled, and plans for an all-out attack laid. The result? From now on, Hama says, there will be no talks. The regime, they say, must go. Assad still claimed on Mondayto be battling an outside conspiracy, fomented to break Syria up. He is indeed surrounded by countries which are anything but disinterested in the outcome: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Lebanon. But the overwhelming truth after four months of protest is that Assad has lost even the bare minimum, the sullen acquiescence of his people, to govern. After four months of videos of massacres broadcast on YouTube, there is no way back.

None of this means that the opposition is about to storm Damascus. They have met in Antalya and in Istanbul, but they are at best loose groupings who neither want or are able to run the protest from outside the country. The truth is that there are no independent institutions, no real political parties or civil society structures to build an alternative on. Everything after the disappearance of the Baathists would have to be built from the bottom up. Worse still it would be done in an atmosphere of sectarian mistrust. The regime, cannot , like Saudi Arabia, spend its way out of trouble. So we are left with a grinding civil conflict which could take months more to play out. The one hope lies paradoxically in the same army formations that are sent in to shoot the protesters who defy them. It is impossible to quantify how many soldiers have defected. But conscript soldiers are drawn from the same homes, and the same classes that are bearing the brunt of the crackdown. Sometime, somewhere a tipping point must surely come. But it has not yet.

The regime's oligarchs will at least be sensitive to the changing international mood. No Syrian official will be too worried by William Hague's call yesterday for stronger international pressure or by the tighter sanctions on the regime the EU announced. But Russia, which along with China, previously vetoed all condemnation of Syria, said on Monday that the violence was unacceptable, and another former close ally, the Turkish president Abdullah Gül, said it was now impossible to remain silent in the face of events that are visible to everyone. These are clear warning signs that there is no future for Assad if he continues on his current path.This is appropriateThis is appropriate

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Hama – the city that's defying Assad

The Syrian city of Hama, the scene of a bloody crackdown by President Assad's army, has a long history of standing up to the brutal Ba'athist regime

Nour Ali,

Guardian,

1 Aug. 2011,

It's early July in Hama. Among the rows of windswept trees and sandy housing, makeshift checkpoints of burned-out cars and dustbins protect its neighbourhoods. The atmosphere is tense as residents wonder what fate awaits the city at the heart of Syria's five-month-old standoff between protesters and the regime.

The answer came on Sunday. It is difficult to report from Syria as the government does not allow journalists to work freely in the country. But according to residents and activists, the regime decided it had had enough. Without provocation, tanks that had been stationed on the city's outskirts for weeks previously approached Hama from four directions followed by infantry and security forces. Those manning the city's checkpoints tried to defend themselves with stones and bars but they were no match for the tanks and gunfire. In the most horrific day since Syria's uprising began, the death toll steadily climbed as doctors called for blood donations, and a stream of gruesome video footage emerged. By sunset that day, up to 100 were dead and scores more injured. But residents say the army has still not succeeded in retaking the city, despite the government's ongoing assault.

Amid the carnage, as in the months before, locals evoked comparisons to 1982 – the year Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez (the then Syrian president) unleashed his army on the city, leaving at least 10,000 dead. That massacre's shadow looms large.

"If the security forces arrest me and ask why I am protesting, I will tell them: in 1982 you killed my brother and you killed my father," explained Mohamed, 54, when I spoke to him in July at his home in one of Hama's central districts. "What more reason do I need than that?"

Mohamed was a newly married man in his 20s when his brother, 19, and father, 51, were rounded up by security forces. They had fled 4km from the city after tanks arrived to repress an armed Islamist uprising that had fought to topple president Hafez al-Assad. Both were shot dead. The bodies, like many hundreds of others, were never recovered; Mohamed has refused to register them as dead.

"We had seen men in white – the colour of the defence forces – shelling using cannons and tanks, which would crash through houses. We saw cars with soldiers and holes dug for graves. There were 50 of us in this house and the army came and rounded up the men."

Mohamed fled to the northern city of Aleppo, walking the first 15km. "I saw corpses everywhere: one there, three here, another five there. It was horrific."

There is little official history written about those three weeks in February in which the city, then Syria's third-biggest, was besieged by the Defence Brigades, the forerunners of today's much-feared 4th armoured division.

Islamists based in Hama, Aleppo and the north-west had risen up against Ba'ath party rule, which came to Syria in 1963 and was taken over by Hafez al-Assad in a coup in 1970. Since the end of the 70s, the Muslim Brotherhood had waged a campaign against the Ba'athists, slaughtering party members and even attempting to assassinate Hafez, to which the authorities replied with brutal killings and massacres. Thousands are believed to have gone missing during this period.

Even 30 years ago, Hama's role as protest capital was not new. It had been at the forefront of campaigns against landowning families and, later, the Ba'ath party. But matters came to a head in February 1982 after guerilla forces declared Hama liberated and the government responded with unprecedented brutality, which some claim is the greatest act of violence in contemporary Middle Eastern history. It was then, as it is now, a war of survival for the Assad regime. Aircraft bombed the roads out of the city to prevent people escaping. Tanks and artillery positioned on the outskirts shelled the city, causing homes to collapse on their residents. Soldiers roamed the streets lining up men and boys as young as 15 to be shot. According to personal testimonies, women were raped and some starved to death from the lack of food.

The attack went far beyond simply obliterating the Muslim Brotherhood: Christian churches as well as mosques were razed and at least 10,000 civilians are estimated to have died. Today, reminders are everywhere in the city's architecture. Seventeen ancient norias, or waterwheels, that creak in the breeze and turn slowly in the Orontes, the river that weaves its way through the city, are almost all that is left of Hama's ancient history – the city that appears in the Bible as "Hamath". Of the old city, only a few streets remain. Whole areas were bulldozed, while bullet holes pockmark the buildings that are still standing. The Cham Palace, a partly government-controlled chain of hotels, sits on a spot where Hama's residents say a mass grave lies, a potent symbol of the regime's power.

After quashing the city, the government made little attempt to reconcile itself. It built new schools, gardens and places of worship, but then it left. Hama, which used to draw tourists, has little infrastructure and few of the nice restaurants that are a feature of Homs, a few miles south, or the main hubs of Aleppo or Damascus.

In this city of 800,000 people – now the country's fourth biggest – everyone has a story from 1982. Each family is scarred by the memory of a lost relative or friend. Thirty years is not a long time: the memories resonate strongly, and no more so than today as Syria struggles with an uprising that has been brutally suppressed and has so far caused more than 1,600 civilian deaths.

Syria was seen as a possible exception to the revolutionary currents that started to sweep the region at the start of the year. Protests that popped up in February and March, including vigils for Egypt and Libya, were quickly quashed by the security forces. But in mid-March, Syria's uprising got the spark it needed when a group of schoolchildren in the southern city of Deraa were snatched by security forces for writing graffiti against the regime. Their parents were insulted by Atef Najib, the city's security chief and, when released, the children bore the marks of torture. On 18 March, protests burst out and live fire killed several, causing outrage across the country. Demands have escalated from local complaints and calls for reform to chants for the end of Assad's regime.

The latest assault on Hama has reopened old wounds as well as creating new ones. When Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000, many hoped his rule might signal a change for the country. But shortly after 9/11, he suggested the US could learn from Syria's history of dealing with terrorists – implying its suppression of Hama. Reforms were slow. The brutal crackdown since March has killed any vestiges of hope.

On 3 June, more than 70 people were killed in the city after three trucks with large guns opened fire on protesters returning from Friday prayers. The front row of men, bearing their chests and shouting "peacefully, peacefully!" to show they were unarmed, were felled; more followed. This bloodshed has only stiffened the city's resolve, which has been further strengthened by the latest attack, as confirmed by residents speaking by phone on Sunday evening.

But Hama's citizens draw obvious parallels between the events of 1982 and now, fuelled by the authorities which have themselves evoked the 1980s, insisting, now as then, that the country faces the threat of an armed Islamic insurgency. What was a taboo subject has been transformed into common parlance across the country.

While Hama's residents remain religiously conservative Muslims, the Muslim Brotherhood or the ideas of political Islam have very little sway.

"Just as then, they [the security forces] treat human beings as dispensable," Mohamed told me. "In the 1980s, I saw bodies tossed aside on rubbish heaps; on 3 June I saw the same. They called it the war of pyjamas because they'd take people from their beds at night, that's what they're doing now," he said, referring to late-night raids made by the security forces on the fringes of the city.

Suleiman, who was one year old in 1982, says he grew up knowing his two uncles were killed, although the details are foggy. "I remember my father telling me about it as I grew up; it was a fact like any other," he says. "It influenced how I see this regime, how I see my country – and I am scared of what they will do."

That shared memory has not only fuelled Hama's outpouring – the country's largest protest gathering was held at the city's al-Assy Square on 1 July – but also helped them to pull together. When it looked as if the security forces might attack, residents set up the barricades and men sent women and children out of the city to relatives, organising systems of protection among themselves.

"Many of those young men manning the checkpoints are orphans of 1982," says a female government worker in her 30s, putting coals on an argileh (hookah) as the day fades and lights flicker on across the city. She talks loudly, dark eyes blazing, no longer afraid in a country where political opinions have been whispered, if enunciated at all.

Just nine in 1982, she can pull up images in her head easily. "I saw my neighbours dragged out of their house, put against a wall and shot dead. We hid, scrabbling for food, and were lucky in being able to be smuggled out to the villages," she says. "You don't forget a scene like that. We all know we have to try to prevent something similar happening again."

"The regime divided people and made them suspicious of each other, but this uprising has started to bring us back together again," says a businessman in his 40s, sipping coffee in his house, a bullet hole on the whitewashed wall behind him. His mother, who lost another of her sons in 1982, keeps calling to check he is OK.

Though Hama's residents say history is repeating itself – the double-act of Bashar and his brother Maher, commander of the 4th armoured division, matches Hafez and his brother Rifaat, who led the 1982 assault – today's uprising is nothing like the ones before it. While clerics have taken a prominent role – the de facto negotiator for the city is the imam of Serjawi mosque and people have gathered in mosques – the strength lies in the fact that this is not a religious uprising. Protests in Hama are a reflection of protests across the country – broadbased, unarmed and, they add, morally justified.

"We are religious. But they are trying to portray us as extremists when we are not," is a common refrain from both men and women in the city. Instead, Hama's residents say they hope for freedom, for a government that treats them with dignity, and the end of 41 years of "Beit Assad" (the house of Assad). And if Syria's uprising succeeds, they may also be able to put the ghosts of 1982 behind them.

Nour Ali is a pseudonym of a journalist working in Syria. The names of Hama residents have also been changed to protect their identities.

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Analysis: Syria - Is it on the threshold of a civil war?

Increase in violence likely – Alawi ruling elite is fighting for its survival and neither side is willing to back down.

Jonathan Spyer,

Jerusalem Post,

02/08/2011

The Assad regime’s brutal assault on the town of Hama should serve to dispel any notion that the struggle in Syria is nearing its end, or that the Assad regime has accepted its fate.

The general direction of the revolts in the Arab world now suggests that the region’s worst dictators have an even chance of survival, on condition that they have no qualms about going to war against their own people.

Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have internalized the lesson.

Military theorists today are divided regarding the role of the main battle tank in the battlefield of the future. Assad over the past 48 hours has demonstrated that whatever the outcome of this debate, the role of the tank as an instrument of war against civilians remains highly relevant in the Middle East.

The Syrian President’s elite 4th Armored Division would be unlikely to last long against the IDF’s 7th Brigade on the Golan Heights.

Against the civilian protesters of Hama, however, it has proven a highly effective instrument. The death toll from Assad’s reducing of Hama now stands at around 140. There are hundreds more wounded.

Assad’s military machine is reported now to be descending on Deir a-Zour. The neighborhood of Al-Joura in the town is being shelled, according to opposition sources. There are persistent reports of large-scale desertions from the army in the Deir a-Zour area.

Protests in support of Hama have begun in Deraa, the birthplace of the revolt against the Assad regime.

Renewed protests in the environs of Damascus are also taking place. The response of the West to the events in Hama has been an additional notching- up of the rhetoric.

US President Obama is now “horrified” by events in Syria.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, meanwhile, professed himself “appalled” by the latest reports. Both the German and Italian governments have called for an urgent discussion of the issue at the UN Security Council.

Assad is unlikely to be unduly alarmed at this prospect. The international community remains divided on Syria. Russia, a long-term close ally of the Assads, has been critical of regime tactics but would be likely to veto any attempt at an effective response via the UN. The West itself is also lukewarm.

There is no enthusiasm among any Western public for further embroiling in Middle East affairs. Hague has explicitly ruled out military action.

The small demonstrations outside Syrian embassies in Europe are attended by Syrian expatriates alone. Those who were predicting a wave of democratization in the region six months ago now look hopelessly naïve. As a consequence, the US and European countries have yet to even call for the resignation of Assad. And the sanctions in place against him are far less than would be required to really force a change of policy.

And yet, with all this, the regime has found it impossible to quell the revolt. Since mid-April, it has been in a state of more or less open war against its own people. The latest increase in repression was designed to re-assert control over areas of particular rebel support before the onset of Ramadan. Friday, the Muslim day of prayer, has been the main focus of protests.

The regime doubtlessly calculated, correctly, that with the onset of Ramadan, the volatile crowds that have manned the demonstrations would be on the streets on a daily basis. It was therefore imperative to re-assert control in rebel areas.

In Hama, the Syrian military pursued this mission with extreme vigor. But if the regime hoped that this would finally allow them to begin to contain the unrest, it was wrong.

The crucial question now, is where all this is heading. The irresistible force of the uprising has met with the immovable object of the Assad regime. What is the prognosis? The answer appears to be an intensification of the efforts of both sides. The Assad regime’s efforts to crush the regime are taking on a more nakedly sectarian hue.

This is the Alawi ruling elite in Syria fighting for its survival.

Alawi military units and Alawi militias (the Shabiha) are the instruments remaining to the Assads. Sectarian revenge killings of Shabiha men by Sunni Syrians in Homs earlier this month may presage the opening of a new, uglier chapter.

The key issue remains whether the security forces will stay united. There are persistent, hard to verify reports of desertions in considerable numbers. An army colonel, Riad al-Asaad, has emerged in the last days, claiming to be the leader of a “Syrian Free Army,” on the country’s border with Turkey. It will soon become clear if there is anything to this claim.

But with neither side willing to back down, increased violence may well be the only logical direction for events to take. Assad has gathered the core of his Alawi regime around him, for a fight to the end. There are increasing numbers among the rebels, especially after the latest events in Hama, who will be determined to meet him head-on. The result: Syria today stands on the threshold of a slide into sectarian civil war.

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Syria’s Ramadan massacre

Editorial,

Washington Post,

Tuesday, August 2,

WHEN THE SYRIAN regime lost control of the city of Hama last month, some Western experts concluded that President Bashar al-Assad would not attempt to restore his authority by force. Hama, after all, was the site of one of the most infamous massacres in the history of the Middle East — a 1982 assault ordered by Mr. Assad’s father that killed tens of thousands. Surely, the experts opined, the world has changed enough that the regime would not even attempt to repeat its extraordinary crime.

And yet that is what Mr. Assad is doing. Early on Sunday, army troops led by tanks launched an assault on the city of 800,000 from four directions, firing cannon and machine guns indiscriminately at the unarmed residents manning street barricades. Video clips posted on YouTube showed the tanks blasting at the minarets of mosques in a city known for its Sunni conservatism, while snipers picked off people on the streets.

The attack began on the eve of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, and continued on Monday. It’s not known how many people have died; foreign journalists and other independent observers have been kept out of Hama. But Syrian opposition sources reported at least 55 deaths on Sunday, and by Monday some counts exceeded 100.

The attack reflects Mr. Assad’s desperation; the regime appears to see no way to save itself other than by waging war on the civilian population. But Mr. Assad clearly is also calculating that those who suppose that dictators can no longer get away with massacres are wrong. He has some basis for that conclusion: NATO may have intervened in Libya to prevent the slaughter of civilians by Moammar Gaddafi, but Western leaders have publicly and vehemently ruled out intervention in Libya. The U.N. Security Council has failed to speak out against Mr. Assad’s assaults on other cities, as has the Arab League.

Until recently, the Obama administration was still describing the solution to Syria’s crisis as negotiations between the regime and opposition. On Sunday President Obama, who has spoken in public about Syria only twice since the rebellion began in March, issued a statement saying he was “appalled” by the “horrifying” reports from Hama, “which demonstrate the true character of the Syrian regime.” It was not clear, however, what action, if any, the administration was prepared to take.

Mr. Obama promised that “in the days ahead, the United States will continue to increase our pressure on the Syrian regime.” But we have heard that before. On June 17, administration officials gave reporters a briefing in which they used those same words and talked about such measures as sanctions against Syria’s oil and gas sector and the referral of Mr. Assad and his collaborators to the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges. Nothing has happened since then. Is it any wonder that Mr. Assad thinks he can slaughter the people of Hama with impunity?

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Can non-violent struggle bring down Syria’s Assad?

Hugo Dixon,

Reuters,

Aug 1, 2011

It was 2006. A young Syrian called Ausama Monajed was on a train to London. One of his hobbies was reading e-books. On this trip, he picked Gene Sharp’s From Dictatorship to Democracy, which maps out strategies for using non-violent struggle to bring down repressive regimes.

Monajed, now one of the revolution’s leaders outside the country, became engrossed. “It was as if I was reading an exact description of Syria,” Monajed told Reuters Breakingviews. The next thing he noticed was a conductor tapping him on the shoulder. The train had arrived at its terminus in Euston Station. “He asked me if I wanted to return where I’d come from.”

Sharp, who was inspired by India’s Mohandas Gandhi and who himself influenced some of the activists behind the Egyptian revolution, stresses that a dictator’s power isn’t monolithic. It relies on the army, police, civil service, business and, indeed, the wider society just to function. Activists should therefore analyze those pillars of support and systematically undermine them.

The best way to do this is not to fight dictators with their own weapons -– matching violence with violence in a struggle they are likely to lose – but to use non-violent tactics. It is much harder for the security forces to kill unarmed civilians than those who fire back at you. The more brutally the regime represses them, the shakier its pillars of support become. Eventually, the violence boomerangs on the regime and destroys it.

Sharp makes clear that non-violent struggles normally don’t succeed through spontaneous combustion. They need planning and training. Most importantly, it is vital to maintain nonviolent discipline – which isn’t easy when activists are being killed, tortured and detained.

Monajed, now 31, was smitten. An economist by training, he had hoped that Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad would be a reformer when he succeeded his father Hafez Assad, who died in 2000.

Monajed worked for the United National Development Programme and then the European Commission on development programs inside Syria. But then he became disillusioned and joined the opposition. After being arrested several times, Monajed quit the country in 2005 and has never returned.

He says he has become one of the regime’s most wanted people after writing an article in the Washington Post this April. This said the U.S. government had several years ago funded Barada TV, a London-based channel beaming anti-regime programming into Syria which he had helped establish.

After coming across Sharp’s work, Monajed studied previous nonviolent revolutions, especially the Serbs’ overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. He went to see Sharp, now an 83-year-old academic, in Boston. He also wrote a master’s degree dissertation on the role of the internet and information technology in non-violent struggle with a focus on Syria.

In 2007 Monajed organized a meeting with some disaffected Syrian friends in London. He says it is too risky to reveal their names. They decided to get trained in the techniques of nonviolent struggle and use that as the basis for training others. “We brought Syrians out of the country and trained them in nonviolent techniques,” Monajed says. “The idea was to train leaders and send them back to train others.”

They found it hard to recruit volunteers. They were told nonviolent struggle wouldn’t work in Syria because of religious and geopolitical factors. In the end, they managed to train around 100 people.

Then came the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. The whole Middle East was electrified. Syrians began to think they too might get their freedom. People contacted Monajed’s group, saying that now they understood what it was advocating.

Virtual operation center

The first protest took place on March 15 in the Hamidiyeh bazaar in the heart of old Damascus. They chose Hamidiyeh because it is a covered market. There were only about 40 protesters but their chants, calling for freedom, echoed off the iron roof making it seem like there were more. Because the bazaar was crowded, it was hard to distinguish who was a protestor and who was just an onlooker -– again exaggerating their numbers.

The next protests took place spontaneously in Deraa, near the border with Jordan, after 15 school children had been arrested for scrawling anti-regime graffiti on walls. These protests were much bigger, with thousands eventually taking part. The security services fired on unarmed civilians. The killing began in earnest.

After that, protests started mushrooming around the country. Facebook pages were created; people communicated via Twitter; protesters took video clips with their mobile phones and posted them on YouTube. Everything was happening faster than Monajed and his colleagues had imagined. Most of the protests had nothing to do with them. The challenge was how to put some order into the revolution.

An early priority was to set up a “virtual operation center,” staffed by dozens of volunteers outside the country, feeding what was happening on the ground to the world outside. Most foreign journalists were quickly kicked out of the country, including one Reuters journalist who was beaten up by the secret police, so it was important to get information out to the international media. Many of the most popular internet pages were coordinated through a new body, The Coalition of Syrian Pages.

On the ground, “local coordinating committees” started emerging in different neighborhoods. They organize campaigns, raise money to cover living costs of the families of those who had been killed or detained, and help communicate what is happening in their area.

Pillars of support

The Coalition of Syrian Pages has gradually taken a bigger role in coordinating activity. It consists of about 20-25 people, some inside the country and some abroad. Monajed won’t reveal their names. “The authorities don’t know who all the members of the Coalition are or where they are,” he explains.

One of the current priorities is to have a strategic plan that includes action on the ground and international lobbying for things like an oil embargo. This has involved coordinating the work of the activists, most of whom are young, with the traditional cohort of opposition made up of politicians, lawyers and human rights campaigners, many of whom signed the anti-regime Damascus Declaration in 2005.

“Initially there wasn’t a plan; just an idea of demonstrating until the regime falls,” says Monajed. “Now, with the Coalition, we are trying to guide the effort in a strategic manner to knock down the [regime’s] pillars of support.”

A particularly sensitive issue, which didn’t exist in either Egypt or Tunisia, is the potential for sectarian conflict. Assad is an Alawite, a minority Shi’ite Muslim sect. Many of the top positions in government, the military and business are also held by Alawites. But most of the population is Sunni Muslim.

Given this background, the regime’s four main pillars of support in order of importance, according to Monajed, are: the security forces including secret police; the Alawites; army generals, especially those who are Alawite; and the Sunni business elite, many of whom have prospered since Assad partly liberalised the economy.

In order to knock down these pillars, it is essential to keep the campaign peaceful, says Monajed. “People don’t want a Libyanisation of the situation,” he says, referring to the civil war across the Mediterranean Sea.

So demonstrators give roses to the army and don’t insult them in their chants. The underlying message they are trying to send to the top generals is: “We differentiate between you and the security service.” Some soldiers have mutinied after being ordered to kill unarmed protesters.

The message to the Alawites is that they are being held hostage by the Assad regime –- and it can’t be in their interests to engage in a war of elimination. The protesters have used chants stressing the unity between Sunni, Alawites and Christians (another minority) and called on Alawite and Christian generals to lead the transition to democracy.

Despite this, there are signs of sectarian violence. There has already been at least one case of a group of Alawites being killed — in retaliation for a Sunni elder being killed and cut into pieces, according to Monajed. That, in turn, provoked a ferocious backlash against Sunnis in the city of Homs.

Meanwhile, the message to the business community is that they won’t continue to prosper under Assad. The Syrian pound has fallen on the black market, tourism is dead, consumer demand has been thwacked and the economy is shrinking.

What about the secret police? This is the toughest part of the regime to crack, according to Monajed. He doesn’t have a simple message for them. Rather, he predicts that, as the revolution goes on, the regime will get tired and exhausted. The top generals may then liaise with Alawite leaders, arrest Assad and the top security chiefs, and form a transitional council with members from all parts of the community.

Tactics and counter-tactics

While strategizing is important, nothing will happen without action on the ground. Although protests have been the most visible tactic, they are not the only method being deployed.

There are low-risk tactics for those who don’t want to go on protests where they could get killed. One is to release “freedom balloons” at a specific time in a particular city, to give people courage that they are not alone. Another is to open their windows at night time and play revolutionary rap songs.

Activists have drawn up “lists of shame” of businesses, actors, intellectuals, imams and priests who are considered too close to the regime. These are used to determine boycotts and strikes. Campaigners have also produced lists of government informers, according to the Financial Times. Their aim is to put pressure on them and isolate them. However, there are also reports of at least two informers being killed.

The Assad regime has been far from idle. As of last week, 1,634 civilians had been killed, according to Avaaz, the human rights group. Then on Sunday tanks were sent into the central Syrian city of Hama, in what looks like an attempt to break the protesters’ morale before the holy month of Ramadan, which has now started. Demonstrations have been particularly big on Fridays after people have gathered to pray in mosques. Some protesters have been saying that Ramadan could be like a month of Fridays.

As the regime’s violence ramps up, it would be natural for the protesters either to lose courage or to take up arms themselves. The challenge for Monajed’s group will be to ensure that neither happens. If they succeed, they will then have a chance to witness whether a nonviolent struggle can really bring a brutal regime tumbling down.

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BRICS in the UNSC and the Prospects for Syria

Stewart M. Patrick

Council on Foreign Relations,

August 1, 2011

This Monday, the United Nations Security Council will meet to consider how to react to the Syrian regime’s violent oppression on protests. My colleague, Isabella Bennett, who holds a B.A. from Georgetown University and has lived in China and Brazil, offers her assessment.

Late Monday, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will hold a meeting to discuss the escalating government crackdown in Syria that has killed 140 people in the past two days and resulted in the disappearance of 3,000 people since March.

Opposition from the world’s rising powers has paralyzed the UNSC since late May, when European members submitted a draft resolution to condemn the brutal oppression.

China and Russia are predictably skittish at the idea of sanctioning yet another foreign humanitarian intervention. They fear that if the UN Security Council is entitled to investigate human rights abuses and use force against national governments, it might act upon longstanding outrage at human rights abuses in their own nations. Therefore, Russia has traditionally allied with the Syrian regime, and continues to insist that “national dialogue is the best way to solve the internal problems” in Syria. (Conspiracy theories are also circulating, accusing Israel, the United States, and France of causing the current Syrian crisis because Syria supports Iran and pursues a “unique style of development“that can serve as a role model for Arab people”).

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu echoed Russian support for Assad’s regime, declaring, “the Chinese government supports Syria’s efforts to protect its sovereignty and stability.” The state-run newspaper, China Daily, also ran a headline on Monday proclaiming, “Syria to undermine ‘new chapter of conspiracy,’” and included only the Assad regime’s narrative that called protesters “war-makers and blood traders.” To be sure, China’s blanket resistance to international interventions has slackened in recent years. In 2007, for example, it voted to deploy a joint African Union/UN peacekeeping mission to Darfur. Still, the Chinese shift took four years and the mass murders in Darfur generated an almost global consensus and outrage, so it is not a precedent that will likely be emulated regarding action in Syria. Finally, China also argues foreign military interventions rarely improve conditions for civilians, and is quick to liken international interventions to Western colonialism.

Russian and Chinese support for UNSC resolution 1973, which authorized force in Libya to protect civilians was a marked departure from this stance, but similar support toward Syria will not be displayed due to contextual distinctions. In the Libya case, a veto would have betrayed Arab League allies of Russia and China, who directly appealed for an internationally enforced no-fly zone. Furthermore, they—along with Brazil and India—lambasted NATO for overstepping the UN mandate to attempt regime change.

For their part, Brazil and India also define their foreign policies in opposition to traditional Western colonialism, are “very prickly about developing-nation sovereignty,” and abstained from UNSC resolution 1973. The stagnated Libya mission, reports of Libyan civilian casualties, and NATO’s increasing alignment with the Libyan rebels have only fed their criticism and sharpened calls for “political and diplomatic efforts” to resolve the crisis. Rather than turn to the UN Security Council, Brazil, India, and South Africa, have instead elected to dispatch deputy foreign ministers “to seek an end to the violence.”

In response to the unified opposition from the Brazil, China, India, Russia (BRIC) bloc of nations, British Foreign Secretary William Hague admitted that

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Syrian reflections in Hatay

Hasan kanbolat,

Today's Zaman,

1 Aug. 2011,

I recently paid a visit to one of the villages of Hatay (?skenderun) along the Syrian border. My family's roots in the village are deep, and some of the people there knew my father's grandfather. Local foods, including peppered bread, soup and raw meatballs are served to guests.

Agriculture has become a source of extra revenue rather than the primary way of making a living in these border villages. The residents live on cross-border trade. The villagers say the Syrian government has eased trade regulations on the Turkish border since the uprising in Syria. The government now allows smuggling of cigarettes, oil and livestock in an effort to ensure that the villagers do not support the uprising.

The buffer zone between the border gates at Cilveg?zü (Turkey) and Babel Havva (Syria) has become a center for oil and cigarette smuggling. Oil and cigarettes are transported using donkeys from the mountainous areas to the buffer zone. The Turkish traders cross the border At the Cilveg?zü gate and return with a car loaded full of oil and cigarettes, without having entered Syria. Contrary to reports in the press, the cross-border trade is still vibrant. Those who go from Turkey to Syria generally do not encounter any problems, with some minor exceptions. The number of trucks crossing the border at the Cilveg?zü gate daily was 469 in June; the average was 460 in July. One could conclude that there has been no decline in the size of the trade along the border. Until early June, Syrian authorities were charging $450 per truck and receiving $400 as an advance tariff on a truckload of oil. However, since the strike of June 1-3, the latter was reduced to $250.

According to the Hatay villagers, the Syrian villages are demanding reform. Aleppo still supports Assad due to the influence of a few strong Arab tribes there. People in Aleppo and the pro-Assad groups are disappointed by Turkey's stance on the uprising. The pro-reform groups, however, want Turkey to be more active in supporting them. There are rumors that it is now commonplace for people to be killed in Syria. The public authority is still visible in the cities, and the situation is under control there, but the highways are not safe at all. Checkpoints are set up along the roads, and security forces frequently engage in illegal behavior at these points. It is reported that there are frequent incidents of extortion, beatings, killings and bribery at these points. In addition, trucks and mass transportation vehicles travelling the highways are frequently stopped by unidentified gunmen.

The growing violence has created an empire of fear in Syria. There are strong indications that Syria has installed missile stations and anti-aircraft weapons along its Turkish and Lebanese borders, and that Iranian military officers supervised these installations. New conflicts will probably cause more people to seek refuge or asylum in other countries. A conflict in the Kurdish region of Syria could cause a huge flow of emigration to Turkey. These Syrian Kurds would reportedly prefer not to return and stay in Turkey permanently. It recalls Operation Provide Comfort in 1991, and its aftermath.

The European diplomats in Ankara are also paying attention to ?skenderun. Their trips to Hatay have visibly intensified since the incidents in Syria. They have already begun evacuating their citizens in Syria (under decisions made in February 2011) via Hatay.

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Robert Fisk: Egypt's revolutionary youth are being sidelined

Independent,

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Revolution betrayed. The Egyptian army now colludes with the hated Muslim Brotherhood to bring you – well, a new Egypt that looks much like the old one, cleansed of Mubarak and most (not all) of his henchmen, but with the Army’s corrupt privileges (housing, complexes, banks, etc) safely maintained in return for allowing the bearded ones a share in power. Cut out of the picture: the young and secular revolutionaries who actually fought Mubarak’s security thugs off the streets in order to rid themselves of the 83-year old dictator.

The picture is a grim one – Arab Spring turned into eternal Arab autumn. And the only bread and circuses to give the young Egyptians who demanded dignity in return for their courage will be the sight of the weary, disbelieving old lion in his iron cage at the Cairo convention centre tomorrow.

Yes, provided for the angry youth of Egypt – and to those families of the revolution's 850 martyrs – the trial of the company that used to run the whole shoddy enterprise, H Mubarak and Sons Ltd, all appearing in the cage the company chairman invented for his enemies.

An ex-dictator gone to seed or a revolution gone to seed? The prospects aren't good. The youth and secular parties suspect tomorrow will be a one-day "opening" trial and then a postponement of a month or two to give time for the former company chairman to die in his bed back in Sharm el Sheikh. "But we are trying him, just like you asked us to," the army will say. And they will hold further meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood.

It's not just that Field Marshal Tantawi, head of the Supreme Military Council and friend of Mubarak, is running the show. Here, for example, is Major-General Mohamed al-Assar, member of the Supreme Council, telling the US Institute of Peace in Washington how jolly mature and co-operative the Brotherhood have become: "Day by day, the Brotherhood are changing and getting on a more moderate track," he told them. You bet they are. They took over Tahrir Square last week, demanding the new Egyptian constitution be based on sharia. But Tantawi, al-Assar and the rest of the gold-braid brigade will do anything to avoid the real change the original revolutionaries insist upon.

Instead of the destruction of the whole corrupt system, the revolutionaries are going to get "reform from within", along with the plump, middle-aged beardies whose existence was the very reason why the Americans backed Mubarak in the first place. Later, no doubt, they can be turned into a threat again – once the spirit of Mubarakitism is back in place.

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Syrian Army Shows Growing Signs of Strain

Jeffrey White

Washington Institute for Near East Policy,

August 1, 2011

Although the Syrian army has shown signs of fraying for some time, the potential for more serious fissures is beginning to emerge.

As Ramadan commences, the Syrian government is stepping up efforts to suppress unrest, with special emphasis on the cities of Hama and Dayr al-Zawr. The regime has faced serious challenges in these areas and reportedly killed tens of people there during operations over the weekend and into today. These and other ongoing internal security efforts are placing serious strain on its forces, particularly the army.

Regime Response

The government's response to the demonstrations since March has involved isolating areas of disturbance; arresting protestors, movement leaders, and uninvolved civilians; terrorizing the population with "disappearances" and shootings; conducting raids against centers of resistance; and, when these measures have proven insufficient, carrying out assaults with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and helicopters. At the core of these tactics has been a willingness to use major violence against largely peaceful and unarmed demonstrators. This weekend's operations in Hama and Dayr al-Zawr are typical of this pattern.

Yet the demonstrations are widespread, persistent, and growing in size, forcing the regime to conduct a "360 degree defense." No area of the country seems secure except perhaps the Alawi heartland in the northwest. With the important exception of Aleppo -- Syria's second-largest city, which has seen only isolated protests -- disturbances have erupted in more than fifty localities so far, including Homs, Latakia, Deraa, Qamishli, and Abu Kamal. Prior to this weekend, Hama had essentially passed out of government control and Dayr al-Zawr threatened to do the same. Even in Damascus, the center of regime power, recurring demonstrations and security operations have been reported in neighborhoods and suburbs.

The opposition's center of gravity is increasingly moving to the cities, which means regime forces must operate in more complex environments. Subduing restive urban populations is a demanding and troop-intensive task, one that will become more difficult as demonstrations grow in size and as protestors or defectors take up arms. More forces will be required, and without adequate training, they are more likely to resort to violence early. More opportunities for violent, casualty-producing incidents will emerge as well. This was reportedly the case in Hama on Sunday, as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles encountered protestors armed with sticks and stones.

The regime is also increasingly concerned about the borders, as it seeks to prevent refugees from leaving Syria and arms and opposition personnel from entering. The flow of refugees into Turkey has been an acute embarrassment to Damascus, and both Lebanon and Iraq are potential sources of arms and fighters. The regime has moved swiftly to solidify control on this front, but the borders are long, porous, and historically prone to smuggling and other unsanctioned activity.

The government must also guard against sabotage of national infrastructure. The past few weeks have seen several attacks on oil facilities and one train derailment, all of undetermined origin. If such incidents mount in numbers and seriousness, the regime will have to stretch its forces even thinner to protect key facilities.

Signs of Strain

The challenging and dynamic environment that the Syrian army is caught up in has begun to produce serious signs of strain in its capacity, loyalty, and cohesion. So far, the regime has retained the allegiance of its large and formidable internal security apparatus, giving it considerable but not limitless security resources on which to draw. These resources include the General Intelligence Directorate, Military Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, the Political Security Directorate, the National Security Bureau, the Baath Party security apparatus, riot police, and the armed plainclothes shabbiha. In addition, some elite army components -- namely, the Republican Guard, the 4th Armored Division, and the 14th and 15th Special Forces Divisions -- have remained strongly loyal.

These organizations give the regime a security presence through the country, but their capabilities vary, and the scope and duration of the requirements currently being placed on them are unprecedented. Signs of strain in capacity include the temporary loss of control over Hama, Syria's third-largest city, as well as near loss of control in Dayr al-Zawr and disputed control in Homs, Latakia, Deraa, and other areas. The security forces have not been able to permanently secure any area and have had to shuttle personnel from one flashpoint to another, sometimes over considerable distances. As disturbances have spread, additional divisions and brigades have been pulled into the struggle.

In general, the government still seems reluctant to order regular army units to fire on demonstrators, though it has done so in some cases where regime protection forces were inadequate. This was apparently the case in Dayr al-Zawr and Abu Kamal in eastern Syria, producing breakdowns in loyalty and cohesion among the army units so ordered.

Indeed, the loyalty of the army, one of the regime's pillars, is increasingly in doubt. As a conscript force in which largely Alawite officers lead largely Sunni soldiers, the army has traditionally been marked by a difficult relationship between officers and enlisted personnel, making it ill suited for the internal security missions it is now being given. There are signs that army units are increasingly identifying with protestors, especially where security forces are employing violence against unarmed demonstrators. The 5th Division showed appeared to exhibit such problems as early as April in Deraa, and more cases have been reported since, including clashes between army personnel and regime security forces in Jisr al-Shughour, Homs, Abu Kamal, and Dayr al-Zawr.

Other reported problems include the formation of a so-called "Free Syrian Army" under a former colonel, the defection of a brigadier general at the Homs military academy, the killing of at least one colonel for refusal to obey orders, and the continuing desertion of junior officers and enlisted men. These reports cannot be confirmed, and the exact scale of desertions is difficult to determine. Yet current trends suggest that the army's loyalty and cohesion are not just fraying, but beginning to tear.

Although the regime's forces are not defeated and the army's potential tears may prove to be small, the dynamics for greater problems are in place. Given the widespread nature of the disturbances, the regime cannot mass personnel in more than a few places. The continuing pressure of the demonstrations, which are liable to swell during Ramadan, will stretch the army still thinner, with more defections likely given the regime's increasingly violent tactics. As the army becomes less reliable, strain will increase on the regime protection forces, stretching them further and tiring them faster. Clashes within army units and between army and security forces may increase as well. And escalating regime violence will likely provoke a more violent response over time, fueled by armed defectors.

Conclusion

Repression alone is not working for the regime. Damascus does not have a viable political formula for swaying the protestors, much less ending the turmoil. Given the regime's track record, the opposition no longer believes its promises of a better future. The most likely outcome, then, is escalating conflict with increasing violence.

In particular, the opposition will likely take on an increasingly armed aspect in the face of brutal repression, and as growing numbers of soldiers defect and join its ranks. Although the demonstrators have shown remarkable forbearance so far, few people will allow themselves to be shot down with impunity indefinitely -- some protestors will take up arms. And the reported violence between army personnel (whether individuals or units) and regime protection forces will likely expand rather than decline as the government employs greater violence and asks the army to participate more extensively. Taken together, these prospects augur a much more violent future for Syria and its people.

Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in military and security affairs.

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بيان حماه – التجمع الوطني السوري الحر -

08/01/2011

مدينة حماه هي مدينة سورية بإمتياز وهي تعود الى سيادة الأراضي السورية وتسير تابعة للقانون السوري ودستور سوريا الحالي كأي مدينة من المدن السورية وان دخول الجيش هو ايضا قانوي ودستوري ليحافظ على تماسك ووحدة الأراضي السورية وحيث ان التجمع يرفض اي ثورة مسلحة تقوم على الارض السورية بنزعة دينية او طائفية لانها تشكل تهديدا مباشرا على باقي افراد الشعب الا ان التجمع الوطني السوري الحر يرفض ايضا اي هدر للدماء من ابناء المدينة بداعي التسلح الاهلي الدفاعي او اغلاق الطرق ويحمل التجمع المسؤولية على عاتق الدولة عدم محاسبة المتطرفين من خالف القانون وقتل بدم بارد وتحميلها المسؤولية بعدم اللجوء الى الحوار السياسي الصريح مع الشريحة المتظاهرة فإن التجمع يطالب الحكومة السورية بإظهار دلائل واضحة ودامغة لاثبات حجم التهديد الذي كان يمارسه اهل المدينة على سيادة القانون والسيادة السورية التي لا لم يكن للجهود السياسية حله وتبرير هذا التدخل العسكري القمعي، واستنادا على ما سبق وحسب ما تورده الحكومة السورية من حقائق لا ريب فيها، فان التجمع الوطني السوري الحر سيتخذ احد موقفين اما تعليق علاقة التجمع مع الحكومة السورية والانضمام الى الفئة المتظاهرة السلمية من الشعب السوري المعزز بأراضه الى حين تنفيذ مطالبه الحقيقية بالحرية والدمقراطية ومحاسبة الفاعل كائن من كان او الاستمرار في نهجنا الحالي عن طريق التواصل بين الحكومة السورية والأطياف السلمية المتظاهرة من الشعب فيما يضمن سيادة للشعب السوري على ارضه ضمن القانون والدستور، وحتى ذلك الحين نحن ماضون في تحقيق اهدافنا ورؤيتنا المنبثقة من ميثاق و بيان التجمع الأساسي.

التجمع الوطني السوري الحر

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Itar Tass: 'Police commandoes pursue armed gunmen in Syria’s Hama'..

Inner City Press: ‘At UN in Run-Up to Meeting on Syria, Brazil Says Could Agree to Statement’..

Guardian: '1982: Syria's President Hafez al-Assad crushes rebellion in Hama'.. [this is what The Guardian' wrote about Hama in 1982]..

Daily Telegraph: 'Government rules out military intervention in Syria'..

MSNBC: 'Syria opposition leader Seif held at Damascus airport'..

Yedioth Ahronoth: ‘Clinton to meet Syrian activists as violence spikes’..

Washington Post: ‘Syria steps up attacks, seeking to crush revolt in city of Hama’..

Sydney Morning Herald: ‘Rudd's diplomatic snub keeps pariah state out in cold’..

Independent: 'Pressure on UN as Syria resumes Hama bombing'..

Jerusalem Post: 'Barak: 'The end of Assad's rule in Syria is likely near''..

Al Bawaba: 'Yara Sabri denies fleeing Syria'..

Hindustan Age: 'Arabic scribes struggle in IT age'..

Business Insider: 'The French Secular Government Model Is Dying In The Middle East'..

Jerusalem Post: 'Syrian assault on Hama horrifies Turkish president'..

LATIMES: 'Egypt's poor cannot afford a revolution'..

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